Is there really any debate here???

[Vidi]

Let me say this one more time.............

This is NOT about current polls as you are trying to define them. It is particularly not about a candidate's CURRENT STANDING in TODAY'S POLLS or any of the damn maps. Do you know how many of them are out there?

Quoting myself:

It doesn't matter if the O is "leading" in this poll or that poll. They're dead even, neck and neck and inside the margin of error.

And yes, you did attack me [although your shot was lousy wide] by claiming my post was all spin.

My post was about projecting out to the finish line based on MANY current polls on a wide variety of poll questions. You don't seem to understand that principle or the definition of analysis.

To quote you:

Based on recent polling in the swing states, your assertion that "all the pointers project forward to election day as a win for Romney." is not based on current polling data and is therefore has no basis in fact and is proven invalid.

What you don't seem to understand is that all of those polls, including the swing states, fluctuate daily. I am clearly basing my projection on current polls but ALL of them, not just a select few. What I am telling you is that you seem to be relying too much only on the daily "popularity" polls in the swing states and I'm trying to tell you there is a lot more to it than that.

No. 5 points is outside the margin of error of +/- 3 points.

Again, YOU stated clearly:

I believe all the pointers project forward to election day as a win for Romney

When clearly ALL pointers do not. In fact, all reasonable pointers point towards an Obama victory. ( though I fully admit that Romney can still win this )

And as I stated earlier, the election will be decided in those ten ( 11 if you count NH. But with only 4 electorals I dont see it as being that much of a factor ) swing states.

Youve made a logic argument not based in fact and then question if there is debate here when you are faced with datat that discounts your assertion?

The answer is NO. There is no debate here.

Especially when your entire argument is " I will ignore ALL data and make a claim based solely on my own wishes"

 

[Intense]

I find myself wondering if the 'It's already certain Xxxx will win' is going to have any effect on people deciding to vote -or stay home.

Not nearly enough of us who can vote, do so - that's how the religious right managed to get such unholy influence in the Republican party to begin with, over 30 years ago. They ran their candidates for any open position at a town or county level, and started from there...... ANY group with a clear agenda and organization could do the same: it's perfectly legal. (In fact, if the Libertarians were as clever as I hope - they'd 'infiltrate' the Dems that way!)

Of course it does. It's part of the process.

 

[swizzlee]

Edited

When assessing the value of each piece of information, you give it a number. You weight it. It is the TOTAL weight that points you in one direction or another. The fact that ONE item in a large collection of items does not fit the general direction of the total does not disprove the final analysis. You are attempting to isolate one item in order to claim the total analysis is false. You will always have these anomalies.

Your single item data does not come close to discounting my assertion - not even.

But I can tell you don't understand what I'm talking about so let's just agree to disagree.

 

[Vidi]

When assessing the value of each piece of information, you give it a number. You weight it. It is the TOTAL weight that points you in one direction or another. The fact that ONE item in a large collection of items does not fit the general direction of the total does not disprove the final analysis. You are attempting to isolate one item in order to claim the total analysis is false. You will always have these anomalies.

Your single item data does not come close to discounting my assertion - not even.

But I can tell you don't understand what I'm talking about so let's just agree to disagree.

As, of the two of us, I am the only one to provide any actual data, I shall rate my data as 10 and yours ( which is only unsupprted opinion ) at 0.

As far as my understanding goes...I understand full well that you have stated IGNORE ALL POLLS...ALL POINTERS SAY ROMNEY IS GOING TO WIN...so what pray tell ARE these pointers? YOUR OPINION...which is not data.



So my single actual data item ( 10 points ) vs your 10,000 unsupported opinions ( 0 points ) leaves a score of 10 - 0 my favor.

I like this game. Thanks for setting the rules.

 

[auditor0007]

Every 4 years right about this time, I find myself sick of it all.

I'm sick of the ugly ads [by both sides should you wish to argue this] and I live in a state where we rarely see them.

I'm sick to death of the media analyzing every single word uttered by any candidate anywhere.. Will this ad hurt Obama? Romney? Who will be VP? When will we know? Where are his tax returns? OMG, Mitt and Bain killed a woman!

Paul Ryan. What the hell - why not?

I'm sick of the spin. I'm sick of the repetition.

I knew whom I'd be voting for long before I could spell out all the reasons.

The relevant polls point the way.

The economic stats are all negative for the O - 8.3 UE, GDP below 2.0 for past 2 qtrs, retail sales down, foreclosures still ongoing, job creation in the ditch and well below population growth for endless months, yada, yada, yada. And not getting better. Stagnant.

Pub enthusiasm is UP. Dem enthusiasm is DOWN. And that translates in to voting or not voting. The O loses that game.

It doesn't matter if the O is "more popular" than Mitt. It does matter that more people trust Mitt to handle the economy better than O.

Actually, popularity is one of the few things that does matter.

It doesn't matter if the O has the Hispanic vote when he's losing young people, blacks, blue collar men and, oh yeah, the Indies.

Obama is not losing the black vote. Nor the Hispanic vote. Rust Belt states are leaning Obama who is up big in PA, MI, WI and doing very well in Ohio.


In some states yes; in most states it's well outside the margin of error and has given Obama an insurmountable electoral vote lead.



The plan is known already:
* Cut all regulation so Wall street can get "creative" again.
* Cut taxes on the rich, increase taxes on everyone else
* Repeal Obamney care and replace it with nothing
* Repeal Roe v. Wade
* Reduce any workers rights as much as possible

The Undecideds will call this game. They're not committing yet. Altho they know Mitt is a helluva lot more competent than the O, they're not sure they really like him. So they'll wait until the very last minute, waiting to see if some thunderbolt event will occur that will make up their mind for them.

I heard today that 9 out of 10 are already decided (yesterday actually). There aren't enough undecideds left that will allow the billion dollars the Governor has raised to have much effect. He waited too late to campaign.

It won't happen. The only thing that will happen is that the October jobs report will come out the Friday before the election. And they'll hold their noses and vote for Mitt.

I'm interested, of course, in the VP pick. I'll be interested in watching the conventions [both] and then the debates.

But it's over. Mitt will win this. No, it won't be a landslide. But neither do I think it will be a repeat of 2000. I really don't believe this is nearly as close as some would have you believe.

Obama will have this sewn up quite quickly on election night. If he holds his lead in Florida, it will be over by 4:00 PST. If not, the drama will last a few hours longer.

The real fun on Election Night is that the networks are not calling races early any longer; only as the polls close. So there will likely be a 2 hour window between the East Coast and the California (Obama up huge), Oregon (Obama up huge) and Washington (Obama up even more huge-er lol) returns to come back. They'll dilly-dally around because they can't call it until that block of 80 electoral votes (counting NV) come in.

Obama' win will be a foregone conclusion but it will be fun to see Fox hosts immolate Cronkite's announcement that Kennedy was shot; voice breaking, tear in their eyes. By 10:00 PM the discussion on Fox will be to see if electors can change their votes. Maybe even more birther hysteria and a discussion on how we need to change the electoral college.

If things go as they look like they will right now, election night will become very interesting. Assuming Obama does sail to an easy victory, he is going to carry many congressional candidates on his coattails. While the presidential race may be over by the time the polls close, who controls the House may not be determined until very late. Republicans have been fooling themselves thinking they will expand their lead in the House; it isn't going to happen. The Dems are going to pick up many seats, it's just a question of whether they pick up enough to take the House back.

 

[candycorn]

Every 4 years right about this time, I find myself sick of it all.

I'm sick of the ugly ads [by both sides should you wish to argue this] and I live in a state where we rarely see them.

I'm sick to death of the media analyzing every single word uttered by any candidate anywhere.. Will this ad hurt Obama? Romney? Who will be VP? When will we know? Where are his tax returns? OMG, Mitt and Bain killed a woman!

Paul Ryan. What the hell - why not?

I'm sick of the spin. I'm sick of the repetition.

I knew whom I'd be voting for long before I could spell out all the reasons.

The relevant polls point the way.

The economic stats are all negative for the O - 8.3 UE, GDP below 2.0 for past 2 qtrs, retail sales down, foreclosures still ongoing, job creation in the ditch and well below population growth for endless months, yada, yada, yada. And not getting better. Stagnant.

Pub enthusiasm is UP. Dem enthusiasm is DOWN. And that translates in to voting or not voting. The O loses that game.

It doesn't matter if the O is "more popular" than Mitt. It does matter that more people trust Mitt to handle the economy better than O.

Actually, popularity is one of the few things that does matter.


Obama is not losing the black vote. Nor the Hispanic vote. Rust Belt states are leaning Obama who is up big in PA, MI, WI and doing very well in Ohio.


In some states yes; in most states it's well outside the margin of error and has given Obama an insurmountable electoral vote lead.



The plan is known already:
* Cut all regulation so Wall street can get "creative" again.
* Cut taxes on the rich, increase taxes on everyone else
* Repeal Obamney care and replace it with nothing
* Repeal Roe v. Wade
* Reduce any workers rights as much as possible


I heard today that 9 out of 10 are already decided (yesterday actually). There aren't enough undecideds left that will allow the billion dollars the Governor has raised to have much effect. He waited too late to campaign.

It won't happen. The only thing that will happen is that the October jobs report will come out the Friday before the election. And they'll hold their noses and vote for Mitt.

I'm interested, of course, in the VP pick. I'll be interested in watching the conventions [both] and then the debates.

But it's over. Mitt will win this. No, it won't be a landslide. But neither do I think it will be a repeat of 2000. I really don't believe this is nearly as close as some would have you believe.

Obama will have this sewn up quite quickly on election night. If he holds his lead in Florida, it will be over by 4:00 PST. If not, the drama will last a few hours longer.

The real fun on Election Night is that the networks are not calling races early any longer; only as the polls close. So there will likely be a 2 hour window between the East Coast and the California (Obama up huge), Oregon (Obama up huge) and Washington (Obama up even more huge-er lol) returns to come back. They'll dilly-dally around because they can't call it until that block of 80 electoral votes (counting NV) come in.

Obama' win will be a foregone conclusion but it will be fun to see Fox hosts immolate Cronkite's announcement that Kennedy was shot; voice breaking, tear in their eyes. By 10:00 PM the discussion on Fox will be to see if electors can change their votes. Maybe even more birther hysteria and a discussion on how we need to change the electoral college.

If things go as they look like they will right now, election night will become very interesting. Assuming Obama does sail to an easy victory, he is going to carry many congressional candidates on his coattails. While the presidential race may be over by the time the polls close, who controls the House may not be determined until very late. Republicans have been fooling themselves thinking they will expand their lead in the House; it isn't going to happen. The Dems are going to pick up many seats, it's just a question of whether they pick up enough to take the House back.

To your point about coat tails. Like the actual coat tail; it's a thing of the past and it's a tribute to the old adage that "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing." I honestly can't explain it but for some reason the people elect a president of one party and often times a senate of another party. The House...I understand it because it's every 2 years and most times they are not state-wide. But the President's party should always get the Senate by decree of the people. Anyway, in this age of readily available information; the President can't carry anyone with her or him. Voters make up their own mind about each candidate and, inexplicably, seem prepared to split their ticket where it is asinine to do so.

If you're an Obama supporter, I think you're going to really enjoy election night this fall.

For the life of me, I cannot understand why people feel it will be anything other than what is indicated by almost all of the state-by-state polls; Obama with 300+ ev's cruising to victory. After poll after poll says the same thing; the "margin of error" nonsense is just that; nonsense. Yes, Governor Romney is sitting on a pile of cash that could likely go a long way in reducing our federal debt. The problem is that there are few undecideds to go after. Those who have decided aren't going to switch parties. Maybe candidates within the party as we saw with Hillary/Obama in 2008 but not from one party to the other. So having that much of a cash advantage isn't as big a factor as it may have been otherwise.

Unless he's going to use that mountain o' cash to get plastic surgery and come back as Reagan II, find a voice that anyone who doesn't race yachts for a living can listen to, get a transplant of warmth and empathy to warm himself up a few degrees, and bring in a combination of Lee Attwater, Karl Rove, and Bruno Gianelli combined to transform his staff into something resembling a presidential campaign; he's toast.

 

[swizzlee]

I'm very sorry you don't seem to understand.......

I'm using the same data [pointers, to use another word] - the polls - but many more than you seem to be using. See my top post for an example of the various polls/pointers I've used.

I simply analyze the election outcome differently than you do. The result I come to is an opinion, as you say. But then, so is yours.

To claim that I have not used any facts is to show you do not understand the definition of analysis OR the definition of facts.

The rules of the game have not changed.

 

[Vidi]

I'm very sorry you don't seem to understand.......

I'm using the same data [pointers, to use another word] - the polls - but many more than you seem to be using. See my top post for an example of the various polls/pointers I've used.

I simply analyze the election outcome differently than you do. The result I come to is an opinion, as you say. But then, so is yours.

To claim that I have not used any facts is to show you do not understand the definition of analysis OR the definition of facts.

The rules of the game have not changed.

Lol I don't think you understand how it works.

Just because you believe something, doesnt make it a fact.

Especially when it's provably wrong. You've posted NO DATA AT ALL. Data requires a link to back it up. If you have not done that, you may as well be pulling stuff out of your ass, which is essentially what youre doing.


Here is brand new data from today


First Thoughts: It's not an even race - Obama's ahead - First Read

according to Foxnews, Obama is up by 9 points, CNN and Rueters have him leading by 7. All of which show your analysis is flawed.

But NONE of that matters. What matters is the swing states. And the race is much closer there...as I've already shown with actual data.


Any time you want to actually back up your claims with actual data, please feel free. In the meantime, don't pull shit out of your ass and call it diamonds. It's dishonest and I'm not dumb enough to provide you with the echo chamber you so obviously desire.

 

[Dabs]

Ah...the clean zone, do not worry...I wiped my feet before I entered ~LoL~

It's a damn shame to make yourself sick every 4 years.

Doesn't matter what I think of Romney....doesn't matter what I think of Obama........doesn't matter, cause I don't vote.
Never have.
Don't care to.
Then...whichever asshole becomes the President, and people start bitching about him....I can smile and say "Don't look at me, I didn't vote for him" ~LoL~

 

[Old Rocks]

Popularity in presidential elections.......

is only popular as a deciding factor among the true partisans or the truly brain-dead.

The people who are serious about their politics and the people who will decide this election decide on the issues and who is felt to be more capable of dealing with them. Popularity won't fix our economy.

Obama is indeed losing a percentage of the black vote along with loses by various percentages in other voting blocs. If he were holding on to all those who voted for him in 2008, he would be running on average 3 pts ahead of Romney. He isn't. Because he's lost about 2-3% of his base. And it doesn't matter at all what the polls show in any of the states today.

You are trying to make an argument over statistics as they exist today. Tomorrow is never the same as today.

Romney's "plan" straight from the Dem playbook and swallowed whole by a brain-dead partisan living in la-la land?

Actually the rest of your post is also coming straight from la-la land.

You have presented your argument,what there is of it, based on today's reality being tomorrow's reality. And that never works.

President Obama 3.7

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Obama: Favorable/Unfavorable

Governor Romney -2.5

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Romney: Favorable/Unfavorable

 

[Jackson]

The key to the election just mey be voter turnout.

 

[swizzlee]

And the Pubs have the enthusiasm on their side.

Probably more so now that Ryan's in the picture.

It sure ain't gonna' depend on what RCP shows on today's polls.

 

[candycorn]

If it comes down solely to voter turn-out, the GOP is in serious trouble.

Evangelicals may have an issue with a Mormon candidate.
The Hard Right is suspicious of the Governor for good reason
The ethnic and women's vote is not in the Romney camp.

 

[swizzlee]

Elections never come down to just one factor....

But if it did, the Pubs show far more enthusiasm than do the Dems.

Democratic Voting Enthusiasm Down Sharply From 2004, 2008