Increasing ACE in the North Atlantic

Better and more complete measurement since satellite coverage in the 1980s, combined with the fact, that ACE alone predicts really nothing about about number of storms or the intensity of any particular storm.

From your source..

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of tropical cyclone activity also indicated an above-average season in the North Atlantic. The ACE index is used to calculate the intensity of the hurricane season and is a function of the wind speed and duration of each tropical cyclone. The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season had an approximate ACE of about 226 (x104 knots2) which was more than double the 1981-2010 average value of 104 (x104 knots2) and ranked as the seventh highest value since reliable records began in the 1800s. Almost half of the ACE during the 2017 was attributable to just two hurricanes — Irma and Maria due to their intensity and longevity.

Let's read that together for comprehension. They are talking about an ACE in 2017 that was "above average". An above average year is not the apocalypse. NOTHING is there analyzing trend. And picking off points in a bar graph is a fools task..

Second, it backs up what I said above about the ambiguity of ACE measurement. When "almost half of the ACE during 2017 was attributable to just TWO hurricanes" and you had 15 or so named storms, I don't have an explanation WHY those other 13 weren't just "Storms of Your Grandchildren" also..

 

You need to know Rocks, that "an above average year" is a 100% EXPECTED EVENT. Not a foreshadow of doom. So are above/below numbers in any sequence of numbers. And arriving at a diagnosis of doom, requires A LOT MORE work than just inspecting a graph. You need to rule out and neutralize all confounding variables, periodic perturbations and have a long enough series to discover the actual statistical distribution behind it.

Too many predictions are made by folks that choose the lazy ass method of assuming EVERYTHING in the world is a "gaussian" or "normal" distribution. They are not. There are HUNDREDS of known distributions for which the mean and confidence bounds are MUCH different from "normal"..

 

NOAA did not SAY that -- did they? Read my last post. Picking points on bar graphs without doing the stuff I mentioned in my 2nd post (and there are more than a couple of stuff) can't TELL you anything about trends.

Probably why NOAA isn't turning on the sirens of doom right now.