Increasing ACE in the North Atlantic

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Old Rocks, Sep 11, 2018.

  1. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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  2. Pete7469
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    Pete7469 Gold Member

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    Anything you post is asinine bullshit intended to promote the hoax of global warming.

    I could be a person with a flat Zero IQ like you and it wouldn't make a difference because it doesn't take a lot of intelligence to mock and ridicule your agitprop.

    BTW,

    There was a freak snowfall today in Africa, because of all the global warming YOU create by exhaling CO2.

    So stop exhaling bed wetter. I promise you that as soon as you do, the world will be a much cooler place and the collective IQ of our species would increase a degree or two.

    Imbecile...


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  3. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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  4. flacaltenn
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    flacaltenn Senior Mod Staff Member Senior USMB Moderator Gold Supporting Member

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    Better and more complete measurement since satellite coverage in the 1980s, combined with the fact, that ACE alone predicts really nothing about about number of storms or the intensity of any particular storm.

    From your source..

    The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of tropical cyclone activity also indicated an above-average season in the North Atlantic. The ACE index is used to calculate the intensity of the hurricane season and is a function of the wind speed and duration of each tropical cyclone. The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season had an approximate ACE of about 226 (x104 knots2) which was more than double the 1981-2010 average value of 104 (x104 knots2) and ranked as the seventh highest value since reliable records began in the 1800s. Almost half of the ACE during the 2017 was attributable to just two hurricanes — Irma and Maria due to their intensity and longevity.

    Let's read that together for comprehension. They are talking about an ACE in 2017 that was "above average". An above average year is not the apocalypse. NOTHING is there analyzing trend. And picking off points in a bar graph is a fools task..

    Second, it backs up what I said above about the ambiguity of ACE measurement. When "almost half of the ACE during 2017 was attributable to just TWO hurricanes" and you had 15 or so named storms, I don't have an explanation WHY those other 13 weren't just "Storms of Your Grandchildren" also..
     
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  5. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Nice deflection. A polite form of telling lies. The graph runs from 1950 to 2017, and you can clearly see more years of high energy storms in the 13 years 1995 through 2017 than in the 45 years 1950 through 1994. And this year, worldwide, will be another year for a high ACE.
     
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  6. flacaltenn
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    flacaltenn Senior Mod Staff Member Senior USMB Moderator Gold Supporting Member

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    You need to know Rocks, that "an above average year" is a 100% EXPECTED EVENT. Not a foreshadow of doom. So are above/below numbers in any sequence of numbers. And arriving at a diagnosis of doom, requires A LOT MORE work than just inspecting a graph. You need to rule out and neutralize all confounding variables, periodic perturbations and have a long enough series to discover the actual statistical distribution behind it.

    Too many predictions are made by folks that choose the lazy ass method of assuming EVERYTHING in the world is a "gaussian" or "normal" distribution. They are not. There are HUNDREDS of known distributions for which the mean and confidence bounds are MUCH different from "normal"..
     
  7. flacaltenn
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    flacaltenn Senior Mod Staff Member Senior USMB Moderator Gold Supporting Member

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    NOAA did not SAY that -- did they? Read my last post. Picking points on bar graphs without doing the stuff I mentioned in my 2nd post (and there are more than a couple of stuff) can't TELL you anything about trends.

    Probably why NOAA isn't turning on the sirens of doom right now.
     
  8. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Now who is turning on the sirens of doom? This nation and others will survive the storms. They will not have the money that is spent on replacement of infrastructure that had decades of use left that was destroyed by these storms to spend on more infrastructure, however.

    LOL Well, you put that graph together with this one, and what do you see?

    [​IMG]
     
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