Computer Models and the Environment

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Weatherman2020, Sep 11, 2018.

  1. Weatherman2020
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    Weatherman2020 Diamond Member

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    To create an accurate computer model in forecasting you need two basic things:

    1. An understanding of all the variables and how those variables interact with each other.

    2. The ability to take that known information on variables and translate it into a software program.

    See the circle after Florence makes landfall? That’s the path Florence can take - about a 330 degree arc. Different computer models are all pointing in different directions after landfall. And we’re only 2 days from landfall.

    9BAEBF4F-5C01-43EE-9F12-494D4BDE4199.jpeg

    Why? Because we are infants at points 1 & 2.

    Remember that the next time someone says the computer models predict this or that in a hundred years.
     
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  2. Weatherman2020
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    Weatherman2020 Diamond Member

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    Here’s what the computer models do. They all have identical input as to data. When Florence makes landfall the direction goes in all directions.

    Man has a difficult time understanding nature.

    83737A6C-257D-494E-ABE7-AA4C41FE598B.jpeg
     
  3. Billy_Bob
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    Billy_Bob Platinum Member

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    The GCM's can not extrapolate the multiple grid square levels above the same point the closer they come to land. They simply do not have the ability to determine flow asymmetry and pressure gradient changes in the transition from water to land. They have issues above water alone.... They simply do not have the information to model things correctly.
     
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  4. Weatherman2020
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    Weatherman2020 Diamond Member

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    Long long way to go.
     
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  5. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Really? Here are the facts on the early climate models. All your lies will not change this.

     
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  6. Weatherman2020
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    Weatherman2020 Diamond Member

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    Yeah, that’s why every computer model sends Florence in a different direction just 48 hours out.
     
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  7. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    Agreed, we need more nuclear energy.

    Oh, I stopped listening after he said "fossil fuels"
     
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  8. Weatherman2020
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    Now 12 hours closer to landfill that probability circle exploded instead of getting tighter. Florence may go in any direction at landfall. And it may speed up, or it may slow down. The computer models and a dart board compete once again.
    C13C297F-6318-4074-81B8-604D64324ABB.png
     
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  9. fncceo
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    fncceo Gold Member

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    The only climate model I trust...

    [​IMG]
     
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  10. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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