To create an accurate computer model in forecasting you need two basic things: 1. An understanding of all the variables and how those variables interact with each other. 2. The ability to take that known information on variables and translate it into a software program. See the circle after Florence makes landfall? That’s the path Florence can take - about a 330 degree arc. Different computer models are all pointing in different directions after landfall. And we’re only 2 days from landfall. Why? Because we are infants at points 1 & 2. Remember that the next time someone says the computer models predict this or that in a hundred years.