In case you missed that latest WikiLeaks cable...

Discussion in 'Energy' started by JiggsCasey, Feb 11, 2011.

  1. JiggsCasey
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    JiggsCasey VIP Member

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    Gosh... here's that former Saudi-Aramco VP admitting his country's reserve figures are vastly inflated:

    Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices

    US diplomat convinced by Saudi expert that reserves of world's biggest oil exporter have been overstated by nearly 40%

    [​IMG]

    The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.

    The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%.

    The revelation comes as the oil price has soared in recent weeks to more than $100 a barrel on global demand and tensions in the Middle East. Many analysts expect that the Saudis and their Opec cartel partners would pump more oil if rising prices threatened to choke off demand.

    However, Sadad al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil monopoly Aramco, met the US consul general in Riyadh in November 2007 and told the US diplomat that Aramco's 12.5m barrel-a-day capacity needed to keep a lid on prices could not be reached.

    According to the cables, which date between 2007-09, Husseini said Saudi Arabia might reach an output of 12m barrels a day in 10 years but before then – possibly as early as 2012 – global oil production would have hit its highest point. This crunch point is known as "peak oil".

    <snip>

    The US consul then told Washington: "While al-Husseini fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, he is no doomsday theorist. His pedigree, experience and outlook demand that his predictions be thoughtfully considered."

    And, from the Jeremy Leggett commentary on the article:

    Peak oil: We are asleep at the wheel | Jeremy Leggett | Environment | guardian.co.uk

    The US government is among many administrations that routinely reassure the public that supplies of oil can go on growing far into the future. But in private, top diplomats have been telling Washington that they hold deep concerns about supplies from the world's number one supplier.

    <snip>

    After this graphic warning about the difficulties the Saudis are having even to replace existing production, much less grow it, the cable goes on to say "while this mission is far from embracing doomsday 'peak oil' theorists, Saudi Aramco's challenges are significant." Al-Husseini himself insisted to embassy staff that he "does not subscribe to the theory of peak oil", before going on to air precisely the concerns that advocates of premature peak oil do: that global demand has essentially met supply, and that a premature drop in global oil production lies a worryingly short way off.
     
  2. RGR
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    RGR VIP Member

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    Gee. Looks like we are running out of oil. Again. Of course. what Jiggsy did not provide was al-Husseini disputing that particular cable, and mentioning that he had been misquoted because, of course, Saudi reserves are completely credible. Looks like the State Department isn't better at censored parroting any better than Jiggsy.

    RIGZONE - Ex-Aramco Official: US Cable Wrong to Dispute Saudi Reserves
     
  3. JiggsCasey
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    JiggsCasey VIP Member

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    LOL. Wall St. Journal, via Rigzone.

    Mr. Husseini says one thing to the U.S. embassy in secret and another when pressed for it. I can understand if Mr. Husseini feels he needs to backtrack on his previous, more private and discreet comments with fullblown denial when it&#8217;s out in the open to remain his politicial ties and friendships.

    His loyalty to the company that made him a millionaire is hardly surprising. Meanwhile, the world' top oil producer is pouring billions in investment into far more expensive off-shore projects to maintain flow, and has been pumping hundreds of millions of gallons of sea water every day into their biggest fields for many years now is a rather transparent and desperate effort to maintain pressure.

    Everything's fine. Riiiiiiight.

    Here his more recent comments from the ASPO video you denialists seem allergic to, and that YouTube has suddenly taken down this week after 2 years of display:

    &#8220;We are going to face shortages in capacity within 2-3 years.&#8221;

    He also said that he&#8217;d been tracking the numbers of investments for a &#8216;long time&#8217; and that &#8216;it&#8217;s not enough to make up for the declines in the next 5 years. It&#8217;s not enough&#8217;.

    But the most interesting quote what was he had to said about those who were trying to "pacify people"... You know, arrogant asshats like RGR here.

    "So, these kind of complacement positions or these centers of information or knowledge that try to pacify people, trying to tell people that there is no challenge, with good intentions are probably comprising the solutions. They&#8217;re not helping."
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2011
  4. RGR
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    RGR VIP Member

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    A parrot does not have the technical capability to understand what al-Husseini was talking about, let alone discern when, or if, he was telling the truth under any given set of circumstances.

    The State Department, like our Jiggsy, was relaying what THEY were parroting from al-Husseini. As has been demonstrated by our own personal peak oil parrot....parrots don't know squat about the information they are parroting and often screw it up mightily.

    I will take al-Husseini's word for what he said, rather than a parrots. And we have Jiggsy to thank for why this makes SO much sense.
     
  5. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Well, this debate will be settled in less than five years.
     
  6. Samson
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    Samson Póg Mo Thóin Supporting Member

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    The beauty of Peak Oil Theory is that it is so forgetable.

    No matter how often it is repeated (for the past 60 years) it can always be recycled to the next generation as brand new, and hold their attention for a whole semester.

    Jiigs hasn't had an original thought in decades, and he doesn't need one.
     
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  7. JiggsCasey
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    JiggsCasey VIP Member

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    LOL. Repeating the word "parrot" a dozen or so times isn't doing much for your argument, coward. You can pretend your opponent in this debate lacked "the technical capability to understand" until you're blue in your fat face. Unfortunately, you're failing badly to counter the fact that what the man maintains is that Saudi can not keep oil prices from rising, and OPEC is very soon to enter decline.

    And yet , when challenged to provide your "technical expertise" and quantify just what fracking entails, or how much has been produced, you run like a girl. You appear more and more like an insecure bloviator who runs his mouth as if he can "easily" dispel peak concerns, but never actually can do so. All you have in your weak-sauce arsenal is laughably ineffectual personal insinuation. Nothing more.

    LOL. Then you just admitted world peak is here, because that is exactly what Husseini has said. Tool.

    Interview with Sadad al Husseini

    Question: Why do you think there is so much denial that world oil production is approaching or has reached a plateau?

    Sadad: There is a push-back to the notion that there is a plateau in world oil supplies which is largely based on lack of information or lack of research (just ask RGR here :rolleyes: ). In fact, if you look at published information—for example, British Petroleum’s annual statistical report—it very clearly shows that from 2003 forward, oil production has hardly increased. So the information is there. If you look at some of the advertising that Chevron has been putting out for years now, they clearly say we’re half-way through the world’s reserves. The information is there. The facts are there. Oil prices did not jump four-fold over a three- or four-year period for any reason other than a shortage of supply. Yes, there may have been some recent volatility in 2008, but the price trend started climbing way back in 2002-2003. So, these are realities and the push-back is a sense that somehow the market is not able to deal with these realities, that somehow people can’t cope with these realities.

    On the other hand, if you don’t talk about them, you never will fix the situation. This is not going to get any better. This is going to get worse because you have population growth all over the world, you have a standard of living that is improving all over the world, you have aspirations across the globe for a better quality of life, and people want energy, so it’s actually important to talk about the facts and come up with solutions rather than act as if these issues don’t exist and then wait for some solution to materialize out of nowhere. That’s a role of government—to highlight these issues and to fix them, or at least take a stand and try to fix them. So I think the push-back is probably ill-advised.​

    You just kicked your own ass.
     
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  8. RGR
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    RGR VIP Member

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    Hadn't thought of it quite that way, but it seems quite reasonable Samson. Certainly it has been going on in 3 different centuries now.

    Wiki and Boobtube will certainly carry Jiggsy through his retirement, without doubt.
     
  9. Samson
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    Samson Póg Mo Thóin Supporting Member

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    The extraordinary duplicious nature of Jiggs allows him to question the veracity of the Rigzone vs WSJ, but completely ignore the fact that a major member of OPEC might have an ulterior motive for lowballing their oil reserve estimates.

    But then, critical analysis is not exactly Jiggs' strength, now is it? I'll take the opportunity to spoon feed the poor imbecile:

    If you have a commodity for sale, then telling everyone that you are running short of quantity will increase its value.

    Lemme know if I need to slow down for you Jiggs.
     
  10. RGR
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    RGR VIP Member

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    I did no such thing. I declined your generous offer based on the theory that throwing pearls (my knowledge) before the swine (you) would be a waste of effort. If you are too stupid to look up the basics via google and ask reasonable questions (which I do answer, for even the parrots), I have no desire to write a "textbook for parrots" which would fall under the explanation given above.

    Realist. I always admit that the last peak is the current one. It tends to keep the parrots off balance, at least the ones who realize what arguments I have effectively neutralized by doing so. You do not appear to be in that class of parrot.

    Sure peak happened. Lots of times. I'm pretty sure peak oil has happened in 3 different centuries now. Why are you getting your panties in such a wad about it? They were happening before you were born and didn't prevent the parrot population from increasing by at least one.

    Not at all. I just referenced what al-Husseini actually said to show that you and the parrots at the State Department and you have quite a bit in common. And you should have KNOWN all of this before you put up that ridiculous reference.

    My opinion on Saudi reserves, and his estimates of the world endowment of oil, runs towards Nansen Saleri's published work and estimates.

    The ex saudi reservoir manager certainly has it all over well connected locals in the technical side of this issue. Read it and learn something. I'd be more than happy to answer questions. Assuming you can break outside your parrot habits and actually think about it well enough to ask one of course.

    JPT: The Next Trillion: Anticipating and Enabling Game-Changing Recoveries April06
     

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