Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by OohPooPahDoo, Nov 5, 2012.
Drawn from where?
538 is showing 92% odds for Obama win now. Just curious.
Drawn from Monte Carlo election simulations using intrade.com state-by-state futures.
Interesting. I think Intrade has Romney's chances too high. Too many "investors" who drank the Gooper koolaid.
Odds are only winners if you understand them.
keep lauging, Goopers. Laugh now, before the tears.
Intrade Doesn't Matter
"I think it is not wise to put too much stock in the Intrade price.
I'm going to compare it to the gold standard for internet sports betting, Pinnacle Sports.
Intrade is not an efficient market. Only tiny amounts of money are wagered, with significant barriers to entry. Because of these barriers, a large arbitrage price exists. The mere existence of a stable arbitrage price should be very worrisome."
Daily Kos: Intrade Doesn't Matter
Economic Model Predicts Narrow Romney Victory
"With Friday’s gross domestic product report, the three economic variables that Mr. Fair has found are best at predicting elections are now in hand. They are:
–The per capita growth rate of gross domestic product in the three quarters before the elections. (Voters seem to remember recent economic history more than they do over the span of the quarter). For the first three quarters of this year, GDP per capita grew at a 1.01% annual rate.
–Inflation over the course of the entire presidential term, as measured by the GDP price index. The annual rate of inflation by this measure was 1.58%.
–The number of quarters during the presidential term that GDP per capita growth exceeded 3.2%. There has been only one such “good news” quarter — the fourth quarter of last year, when GDP per capita grew 3.3%."
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