In view of Miguel Cabrera hitting HR #250 last night, I just took a look at what I consider to be the top active HR leaders accounting for age to see who has a shot at Bonds (uughh!), assuming they remain healthy.
These are the players I looked at. Feel free to add others if you feel I've missed any. Be aware, this is not a full list, but one that takes into account current HRs and age - for example, I've discounted players like Thome because, while still active, they are clearly at the end of their careers and don't have enough years left to threaten the record.
The following are ranked on HR per 162 games played.
Name .Age .Current HR .HR per 162
Cabrera .27 .250 .34
Fielder ...26 192 .... 37
Teixeira . ..30 ........ 279 ............37
Dunn .. 31 ........355 ......... .40
Bonds .43 .... . 762 ...... 41
Pujols ...31 ... 409 ....... .42
Rodriguez .. .35 .... .615 ..... 43
Howard .31 ..... 255 .... ..47
Looking at those, some other observations need to be taken into account
Miggy will have to start having 40+ years to have a shot.
Fielder is on a faster pace, but was 2 years older than Cabrera when he broke into the bigs (2005 vs 2003).
Teixeira is on a faster 162 pace than Cabrera, but Miggy has hit more over the last 4 seasons (143 vs 135).
Dunn is better placed than those 3, but is a bit off the pace compared to Albert.
Pujols pace is ahead of Bonds', but unfortunately Albert's twighlight years will likely see him slowing down, while Bonds juiced his way to a 40HR avg over his last 8 seasons (12 more a year than he averaged in his first 8).
A-Rod is now on, at best, a 30HR pace. He'll need to sustain that for another 5 years to reach Bonds. Possible, but unlikely without artificial help.
Howard seems the best bet on HR/162 pace, but in 143 games last year he hit only 31 HR, down from the 58, 47, 48 and 45 he'd managed in the previous 4 seasons.
Makes you realize what a truly awesome hitter Hank Aaron was, and how steroids diminish the achievements of those who did it on talent alone.
These are the players I looked at. Feel free to add others if you feel I've missed any. Be aware, this is not a full list, but one that takes into account current HRs and age - for example, I've discounted players like Thome because, while still active, they are clearly at the end of their careers and don't have enough years left to threaten the record.
The following are ranked on HR per 162 games played.
Name .Age .Current HR .HR per 162
Cabrera .27 .250 .34
Fielder ...26 192 .... 37
Teixeira . ..30 ........ 279 ............37
Dunn .. 31 ........355 ......... .40
Bonds .43 .... . 762 ...... 41
Pujols ...31 ... 409 ....... .42
Rodriguez .. .35 .... .615 ..... 43
Howard .31 ..... 255 .... ..47
Looking at those, some other observations need to be taken into account
Miggy will have to start having 40+ years to have a shot.
Fielder is on a faster pace, but was 2 years older than Cabrera when he broke into the bigs (2005 vs 2003).
Teixeira is on a faster 162 pace than Cabrera, but Miggy has hit more over the last 4 seasons (143 vs 135).
Dunn is better placed than those 3, but is a bit off the pace compared to Albert.
Pujols pace is ahead of Bonds', but unfortunately Albert's twighlight years will likely see him slowing down, while Bonds juiced his way to a 40HR avg over his last 8 seasons (12 more a year than he averaged in his first 8).
A-Rod is now on, at best, a 30HR pace. He'll need to sustain that for another 5 years to reach Bonds. Possible, but unlikely without artificial help.
Howard seems the best bet on HR/162 pace, but in 143 games last year he hit only 31 HR, down from the 58, 47, 48 and 45 he'd managed in the previous 4 seasons.
Makes you realize what a truly awesome hitter Hank Aaron was, and how steroids diminish the achievements of those who did it on talent alone.
