CDZ How Will the Robotics Revolution Impact the Democratic Party?

[320 Years of History]

In the neighborhoods we travel today I see lots of hight level foreign autos, none of which support American workers.

What? Do all those folks drive/own Range Rovers, Ferraris, Porsches, etc? American workers build a lot of often seen cars. Just how much "support" constitutes "supporting American workers" in your mind?

 

[JimBowie1958]

Maybe the OP writer missed it but robotics have already reduced labor.

It has not even scratched the surface of what it is going to do, sir.

 

[JimBowie1958]

There will be the usual top 1% winners who sell the robots to themselves, each other and the governments, and then the 99% rest of us who will be starving on the street if we dont do something to fix this now.

Technology can't be stopped so what do you propose?

1. A business tax on robots/job that the government loses revenue from, based on what that job would have paid.

2. A Universal Basic Income to replace all welfare at the state, federal and local level.

3. A tax break in business taxes that would be an additional 25% of costs of human labor from profits.

4. Assistance for people to obtain and learn how to use 3D printing, nano-manufacturing and setting up their own local block power supply, and assistanc e in poutting up solar panels.

 

[JimBowie1958]

I agree that the information is here now..

No, the advanced AI is here now as well as the robotics.

 

[JimBowie1958]

As a guiding set of ideas at the nation state level, conceivably and sometimes. As an assortment of attitudes an individual can hold/espouse, not necessarily or in some cases not at all.

• CHALLENGING THE CIVIC/ETHNIC AND WEST/EAST DICHOTOMIES IN THE STUDY OF NATIONALISM
  
• The Limits of Nationalism
• Self-Determining Peoples Against the Myth of the Civic Nation

Civic and ethnic nationalism are but ends of a spectrum. As such, there is overlap the instant one moves off the endpoints. The two just aren't binary choices and/or attitudes. Can one or many oversimplify the two to force them into a binary model? Well, of course, one could assert an apple tree is a pear tree too. But doing that would merely make one mistaken given the wealth of consideration on the matter that shows the two are not binarily opposed.

People engage in Cognitive Dissonance all the time, but as concepts there is no overlap in Civic Nationalism vrs Ethnic Nationalism.

That is lke trying to prove 2+2 does not equal 4 because little Johnny keeps getting the answer wrong.

Let's consider the general types of jobs held by people in a consulting office (keep in mind that my firm is a global consulting firm; our revenue-side staffing/HR needs are managed at the firm level, not the office level; an office can have as many junior personnel as there are senior personnel to groom/mentor them):...

Of the jobs noted above, the emboldened ones all have entry level opportunities. The requirements for entry level consultants tends to increase gradually in terms of the breadth of skills/knowledge areas and collegiate performance level we demand from undergrads. Can we replace them with robots? Not at all because the firm needs partners and I can't "groom" a robot into a partner who will innovate ways to expand the business, who will deliver the right message the right way to grow the skills of junior consultant.

Now of the cost-side entry level jobs, I frankly don't see any of them, except perhaps the storeroom/mail clerk job, being replaced by robots, but even that role is very difficult to replace with a robot. The reason is that even the mail clerk performs tasks that are unspecified in nature. Sure, their main job is to order supplies and deliver the mail, but they also fill in on the receptionist's desk and assist with various other administrative tasks. The same is so for all the other administrative personnel. How is a robot going to "get" the artistic traits that work for "this" task, but that are suboptimal for "that" one?

The advanced AI will be able to do these jobs and many are already jobs that Advanced AI can do TODAY. In Ten Years it will be ridiculous to assert that a human can compete with a robot that is wirelessly connected to a main frame that calculates its toughest problems for it.

Agreed, but we can't program robots to handle every single vagary of human nature, which is what all human workers must, at one point or another, do and do well. I find it hard to imagine that a robot can ever anticipate what a given individual or situation is going to require/want "most of the time, but not this time" which again is what everyone must at one point or many points must do. Robots are very good at doing the same thing over and over, but they are lousy at doing something entirely new.

That the scope of "same things" has been expanding is, I think, the driver to your concerns about advanced AI, but even there, there is a limit, at least for now. I mean really...Even "Mr. Data" has limits to what he can do well in a human world. And we are nowhere near having even just one "Mr. Data" android doing the work of anyone, let alone ubiquitous instance of "Mr. Data" doing the work formerly done by millions of folks.

There is no limit to what Robots will be able to do. All we can do in response is to get enhanced and transition into Transhumanism. But not everyone is cool with that.

The best answer is to embrace the idea that we will all be able to make what we need and wont need cash, but the implications and consequences of a world run by robots is just peeking through.

The coming nut cracker the Democrats will be in will be amusing in a way, but mostly tragic for all the people that once depended on them.

 

[alang1216]

There will be the usual top 1% winners who sell the robots to themselves, each other and the governments, and then the 99% rest of us who will be starving on the street if we dont do something to fix this now.

Technology can't be stopped so what do you propose?

1. A business tax on robots/job that the government loses revenue from, based on what that job would have paid.

2. A Universal Basic Income to replace all welfare at the state, federal and local level.

3. A tax break in business taxes that would be an additional 25% of costs of human labor from profits.

4. Assistance for people to obtain and learn how to use 3D printing, nano-manufacturing and setting up their own local block power supply, and assistanc e in poutting up solar panels.

1 and 3 sound like you want to make robots more expensive for businesses. In the short term that will likely work, if you could define exactly what a robot is, but in the long term you're just putting off the inevitable. And making the change even more dramatic.

2 strikes me as too paternal and the US would never go for it.

to be continued...

 

[alang1216]

There will be the usual top 1% winners who sell the robots to themselves, each other and the governments, and then the 99% rest of us who will be starving on the street if we dont do something to fix this now.

Technology can't be stopped so what do you propose?

1. A business tax on robots/job that the government loses revenue from, based on what that job would have paid.

2. A Universal Basic Income to replace all welfare at the state, federal and local level.

3. A tax break in business taxes that would be an additional 25% of costs of human labor from profits.

4. Assistance for people to obtain and learn how to use 3D printing, nano-manufacturing and setting up their own local block power supply, and assistanc e in poutting up solar panels.

continued...

2 would be unpopular here but I think separating benefits from jobs might help people transitioning from one field to another. If you get your health care or retirement funds from your job you are dependent on it and losing it would be a real shock. If it is a separate system, like social security, it would mean you are not at the mercy of a company that may let you go or go out of business. (I think the gov't should make the rules for social security and health care but the providers should be private.)

I like 4 and think that job training, for whatever job, is something we should always be doing. I hear a lot of it currently is ineffective but hopefully that can be looked at and improved.

 

[JimBowie1958]

There will be the usual top 1% winners who sell the robots to themselves, each other and the governments, and then the 99% rest of us who will be starving on the street if we dont do something to fix this now.

Technology can't be stopped so what do you propose?

1. A business tax on robots/job that the government loses revenue from, based on what that job would have paid.

2. A Universal Basic Income to replace all welfare at the state, federal and local level.

3. A tax break in business taxes that would be an additional 25% of costs of human labor from profits.

4. Assistance for people to obtain and learn how to use 3D printing, nano-manufacturing and setting up their own local block power supply, and assistanc e in poutting up solar panels.

1 and 3 sound like you want to make robots more expensive for businesses. In the short term that will likely work, if you could define exactly what a robot is, but in the long term you're just putting off the inevitable. And making the change even more dramatic.

2 strikes me as too paternal and the US would never go for it.

to be continued...

The goal is not to penalize business so much as to make certain that our Defense Department, Social Security funds, and other government programs are not starved of funds because humans are replaced by robots across the board.

But back to the OP; what are the Democrats going to do as Hispanics leave the US as the result of jobs disappearing at the lower skill scale first? A huge growth in the Hispanic population is core to the Democrats strategy for the future, and that means they need to reach out to whites and muzzle their Social Marxist left. Will they do this? I think so, but how? How do they reach out to lower pay white working class people after all the crap they have dished out to them for the past 12 years and more by the time events actually transpire?

They will have to over compensate like they always do and incorporate White Nationalists in some capacity, but there maybe a third option. I cant get anyone to discuss the Democrat demographic collapse however, so I cant even get to the next point about a third path that avoids the white nationalism pretty much altogether.

How does one discuss solutions to a problem prior to establishing that there is a problem in the victims mind?

 

[alang1216]

But back to the OP; what are the Democrats going to do as Hispanics leave the US as the result of jobs disappearing at the lower skill scale first? A huge growth in the Hispanic population is core to the Democrats strategy for the future, and that means they need to reach out to whites and muzzle their Social Marxist left. Will they do this? I think so, but how? How do they reach out to lower pay white working class people after all the crap they have dished out to them for the past 12 years and more by the time events actually transpire?

You make a number of assumptions that I don't see happening.

The timing of the revolution you predict is the first assumption I don't see, it will take much longer for the effects of robot AI to be felt in the workplace. The tech doesn't even exist yet in the labs, let alone being commercially available. Don't underestimate the capital expense of replacing a worker with a $500,000 robot.

Since the time frame will not be a few years but a generation, the Hispanics won't need to leave, their children will just compete for the new jobs created.

The Dems will have no problem appealing to the economic interests of lower pay white working class people, they are their natural supporters. The GOP has been very successful at using social issues (e.g., abortion for evangelicals) and scare tactics (e.g., Muslim immigration) but their support for the 1% will eventually bite them.

I cant get anyone to discuss the Democrat demographic collapse

Maybe because you're the only one who believes it will happen. I certainly don't and think the GOP will disintegrate before the Dems do. Trump is certainly doing his part to hasten the process.

 

[Fair&Balanced]

Advanced AI robots are just around the proverbial corner. Not only can computers analyze and solve problems independently, but it is being miniaturized enough that such systems can be put on desk tops and smaller devices. Put these AI computers on mobile robots and you have a whole new source of labor. Some mobile robots would look like dogs of various types and be used to carry supplies and tools and do some repairs and labor where it is easily accessible, but there will also be androids that can mimic human mobility and accessibility as well.







The mobility of such androids would remove about 99% of the advantage human beings will have over robots, most of whom today are stationary on factory assembly lines. The predicted price tag for these robots will be around $1500

But also they are being taught/programmed to learn social cues as well, and so, though they still have the creepy factor now, that wont be a large impediment for most labor tasks and will disappear in the coming decade.



Now the Democratic Party has long had a rough systematic form in our political system. The urban ward bosses, who were Democrat usually, would provide jobs and succor for immigrants, they would provide the urban businesses with cheap immigrant labor, and also supply the Democratic Party with huge numbers of voters. This system worked all the way through the black riots that basically impoverished most of our urban areas in the 1960s, as blacks from rural areas were the newest immigrant population, relative to Northern cityscapes anyway.

But the detrimental flaw to this system for the Democrats was that as immigrants assimilated into the Middle Class, they tended to go Republican, and the Dems lost voters. The solution had always been to simply link in a new set of ethnic minority immigrants, but there were fewer and fewer new ethnicities coming in from Europe by the 1960s that couldnt go directly into their own ethnic communities and bypass the big city ward bosses.

So Ted Kennedy pushed changes to our immigration system through Congress and we started taking in more immigrants from outside of Europe. The laws were also changed to make Hispanics a non white ethnicity in the census and in various federal programs. The intent was to create a permanent subclass of workers that would permanently vote Democrat and never assimilate into the American Middle Class. The logic of this approach is reaching its tolerable extremes today as the Democratic Presidential nominee has endorsed a Marxist organization that not only wants racial segregation, reparations for slavery and "community ownership of property" they also see the white establishment patrician oligarchs of the Democratic party as their enemy, though they are cutting political deals with them. With each passing year, the Democrats have alienated white voters, especially white male voters, and now the technological-economic Tsunami is about to hit them.

Robotics makes all these cheap labor jobs obsolete for human labor. *POOF* goes the need for black market labor. *POOF* goes the entry level jobs. *POOF* goes the growing demographic wedge the Democrats have been counting on for their political future - the wild growth of a Hispanic economic underclass. Robotics makes all that a bad dream and changes the Middle Class need to hire cheap labor into a Middle Class need for cheap robots, which the local whiz kid will be able to build in his own garage using online instructions, open source code and 3D printed components.

So what will the Democratic party do as its permanently poor Hispanic underclass migrates back out of the country? What will they do as urban unemployment rates hit 60%+?

Job mongering policies are the only answer for the Democratic Party to recapture its role as chief patronage-spoils system distributor to the working class voter. And that cannot work with their current hostility to Middle Class white America still in place.

While I seriously doubt that the Democratic Party will go back to Jim Crow, I do think that they will continue the neglect of Jewish and black communities interests, not attacking them, just ignoring them, as they develop strong bonds with White Nationalists who will have to learn how to be polite 'haters' much like Jackie Robinson had to learn how to be a quiet polite angry man when he joined the Dodgers. And White Nationalists will be able to do this about the time they stop using provocative terms that pointlessly alienate the rest of America.

Or maybe not. Maybe the Democrats will be so desperate that they will take in rude White Nationalists. Maybe they will reject all open White Nationalists and develop an in-house collection of such politicians who sell their White Nationalism encoded so as to not provoke their old black and Jewish allies?

But the one thing that is abundantly clear if one looks at the unstoppable trends and their probable impacts; the Democrats will lose elections by the butt load if they cannot compete once again for the lower class White worker. Since such a failure will destroy the patronage system of distribution of government spoils if the Dems are not in power to do so, and that means the end of the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party will make this shift.

And as the Democratic Party's magnetic poles realign, will the Republicans take advantage of it? If the GOP continues its opposition to all forms of socialism or bust, then it will prolong the process of change politically in the Democratic Party, but also stoke the flames that heat the growing explosion of Middle Class resentment that will one day soon bring us a new third party that will sweep one or both of the traditional parties aside if this angry movement fails to recapture the Democratic Party.

My bet is the latter will be the most likely if Trump loses the 2016 election, and the new third party will be a Nordic Socialist third party that will embrace polite White Nationalism that looks to Bernie Sanders as its founding father. And that Socialist Party will dominate American politics for another 60 years like FDRs Democrats did from 1932 to 1994.

But as Democrats begin to see the sea changes taking place beneath them in the 2020 decade, will they adjust and revive, or remain controlled by the Corporate Crony Network and die off?

My bet is that they will adapt to these changes if Trump wins, out of necessity, and become calcified and extinct if Trump loses due to lack of said necessity.

But one way or the other, change is coming, friends.

Depends.

I believe the advent of such advanced technology is going to make most workers obsolete and a UBI will be required to ensure that we don't devolve into feudal empire.

IF the Dems are the only party willing to discuss such , they will likely flourish. If however the GOP can convince Americans to ditch all the welfare BS in favor of a UBI, well the Dems will lose all their appeal.

 

[Fair&Balanced]

But back to the OP; what are the Democrats going to do as Hispanics leave the US as the result of jobs disappearing at the lower skill scale first? A huge growth in the Hispanic population is core to the Democrats strategy for the future, and that means they need to reach out to whites and muzzle their Social Marxist left. Will they do this? I think so, but how? How do they reach out to lower pay white working class people after all the crap they have dished out to them for the past 12 years and more by the time events actually transpire?

You make a number of assumptions that I don't see happening.

The timing of the revolution you predict is the first assumption I don't see, it will take much longer for the effects of robot AI to be felt in the workplace. The tech doesn't even exist yet in the labs, let alone being commercially available. Don't underestimate the capital expense of replacing a worker with a $500,000 robot.

Since the time frame will not be a few years but a generation, the Hispanics won't need to leave, their children will just compete for the new jobs created.

The Dems will have no problem appealing to the economic interests of lower pay white working class people, they are their natural supporters. The GOP has been very successful at using social issues (e.g., abortion for evangelicals) and scare tactics (e.g., Muslim immigration) but their support for the 1% will eventually bite them.

I cant get anyone to discuss the Democrat demographic collapse

Maybe because you're the only one who believes it will happen. I certainly don't and think the GOP will disintegrate before the Dems do. Trump is certainly doing his part to hasten the process.

First off, a machine doesn't replace A worker, it replaces DOZENS of workers.

Second off, that day is not as far off as you believe.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Depends.

I believe the advent of such advanced technology is going to make most workers obsolete and a UBI will be required to ensure that we don't devolve into feudal empire.

IF the Dems are the only party willing to discuss such , they will likely flourish. If however the GOP can convince Americans to ditch all the welfare BS in favor of a UBI, well the Dems will lose all their appeal.

I totally agree, but I think BOTH parties can win on this, if they will work together and play nice, the corporations too.

It is similar to a Monopoly board game, designed for one player to win and everyone else to lose.

Suppose someone financed a Monopoly game, playing banker and everyone else playing brings their own money that they start with; what is the optimal strategy for the players to make as much money as possible? The best strategy for them is to NOT PLAY THE GAME AS INTENDED, but to play for a mutual gain. If each player agreed to not buy houses and hotels and to not buy properties or to buy them at auction, but just pass Go as many times as they can within the time given, they will all make more money than if one of them actually won the game.

Cooperation to find the greatest number of winners is the thinking mans approach to analyzing these difficult situations.

In this case, if we do the things I suggested above in post # 63 and return to a less adversarial political relationship, and shunning those who advocate loss of civil rights for any human being or group of human beings and focusing on attaining the greater good, we all win in the coming years, instead of having a civil war where everyone will lose a loved one or two, immense wealth and the stability of one of the worlds most successful nations ever established.

 

[Fair&Balanced]

Depends.

I believe the advent of such advanced technology is going to make most workers obsolete and a UBI will be required to ensure that we don't devolve into feudal empire.

IF the Dems are the only party willing to discuss such , they will likely flourish. If however the GOP can convince Americans to ditch all the welfare BS in favor of a UBI, well the Dems will lose all their appeal.

I totally agree, but I think BOTH parties can win on this, if they will work together and play nice, the corporations too.

It is similar to a Monopoly board game, designed for one player to win and everyone else to lose.

Suppose someone financed a Monopoly game, playing banker and everyone else playing brings their own money that they start with; what is the optimal strategy for the players to make as much money as possible? The best strategy for them is to NOT PLAY THE GAME AS INTENDED, but to play for a mutual gain. If each player agreed to not buy houses and hotels and to not buy properties or to buy them at auction, but just pass Go as many times as they can within the time given, they will all make more money than if one of them actually won the game.

Cooperation to find the greatest number of winners is the thinking mans approach to analyzing these difficult situations.

In this case, if we do the things I suggested above in post # 63 and return to a less adversarial political relationship, and shunning those who advocate loss of civil rights for any human being or group of human beings and focusing on attaining the greater good, we all win in the coming years, instead of having a civil war where everyone will lose a loved one or two, immense wealth and the stability of one of the worlds most successful nations ever established.

That simply isn't human nature my friend LOL

But would be a welcome change from today where everyone loses.

 

[JimBowie1958]

In this case, if we do the things I suggested above in post # 63 and return to a less adversarial political relationship, and shunning those who advocate loss of civil rights for any human being or group of human beings and focusing on attaining the greater good, we all win in the coming years, instead of having a civil war where everyone will lose a loved one or two, immense wealth and the stability of one of the worlds most successful nations ever established.

That simply isn't human nature my friend LOL

But would be a welcome change from today where everyone loses.

The dynamics of this Robotics Revolution 'roll out' is such that it is slow enough for even the biggest dullards to see what is happening just before it does, so I am hopeful that if a well discussed approach to handling the problem exists prior to the Big Wake Up, we can pull this off and cheat Skynet, lol.

 

[Fair&Balanced]

In this case, if we do the things I suggested above in post # 63 and return to a less adversarial political relationship, and shunning those who advocate loss of civil rights for any human being or group of human beings and focusing on attaining the greater good, we all win in the coming years, instead of having a civil war where everyone will lose a loved one or two, immense wealth and the stability of one of the worlds most successful nations ever established.

That simply isn't human nature my friend LOL

But would be a welcome change from today where everyone loses.

The dynamics of this Robotics Revolution 'roll out' is such that it is slow enough for even the biggest dullards to see what is happening just before it does, so I am hopeful that if a well discussed approach to handling the problem exists prior to the Big Wake Up, we can pull this off.

I fear we will not. We have too many people who are stupid, and others who aren't stupid, but are scared of change. I'm 45 and probably won't live long enough to see the changes necessary to ensure that everyone has a chance in the age of the robot. Our culture can't keep up with the technology.

Hell, we can't even get people to understand that a UBI while doing away with all other welfare would be CHEAPER than our current welfare system AND put more money into the hands of the poor.

 

[JimBowie1958]

I fear we will not. We have too many people who are stupid, and others who aren't stupid, but are scared of change. I'm 45 and probably won't live long enough to see the changes necessary to ensure that everyone has a chance in the age of the robot. Our culture can't keep up with the technology.

Hell, we can't even get people to understand that a UBI while doing away with all other welfare would be CHEAPER than our current welfare system AND put more money into the hands of the poor.

Wow, there is actually a real person who is more pessimistic than I am. Thank you! I cant wait to tell my wife!

Lol, seriously, you could very well be right. Which way this goes will be determined by some random affects as well that will put an invisible hand on the scale, no doubt, but it could also FAVOR a better outcome also.

I am feeling that we will certainly know which way everything is going by 2030 and will still have time to reshape the system if needed. With a reasonable person following whoever wins this year, and we can do that. I think it will be Pence, but who knows?

 

[Fair&Balanced]

I fear we will not. We have too many people who are stupid, and others who aren't stupid, but are scared of change. I'm 45 and probably won't live long enough to see the changes necessary to ensure that everyone has a chance in the age of the robot. Our culture can't keep up with the technology.

Hell, we can't even get people to understand that a UBI while doing away with all other welfare would be CHEAPER than our current welfare system AND put more money into the hands of the poor.

Wow, there is actually a real person who is more pessimistic than I am. Thank you! I cant wait to tell my wife!

Lol, seriously, you could very well be right. Which way this goes will be determined by some random affects as well that will put an invisible hand on the scale, no doubt, but it could also FAVOR a better outcome also.

I am feeling that we will certainly know which way everything is going by 2030 and will still have time to reshape the system if needed. With a reasonable person following whoever wins this year, and we can do that. I think it will be Pence, but who knows?

I think we will have to shed ourselves of the two party oligarchy we currently live under first. How is that going to happen when it is supposedly going to cost $1.5 BILLION to win a Presidential election?

 

[JimBowie1958]

I think we will have to shed ourselves of the two party oligarchy we currently live under first. How is that going to happen when it is supposedly going to cost $1.5 BILLION to win a Presidential election?

I dont think we have to shed the Oligarchs entirely, impossible anyway as yo always have an elite on top of everything made up of the people willing to do anything to get their place at the table of the Masters of the Universe.

I think we can transition them into returning to a view that they had prior to WW2 which is that we are all on the same team, and if they arent on our team, then they need to move out of the country entirely and face the disadvantages of doing so.

Within our own borders, we need to stack the deck slightly in our favor and against those on the outside. That is how it works in every other country, with no exceptions but us, so we need to get our team together and see us as on the same economic team and work to advance us all, from the top down and we can do it.

As the crisis mounts and people start to awaken, things will get hairy, no doubt, but we can pool our heads together and do what is best for the common good as any rational group of people will. And the Oligarchs maybe amoral, but they are rational and enlightened self interest is the best way to go, not greed to the point of stupidity. And they know that.

 

[320 Years of History]

move out of the country entirely and face the disadvantages of doing so.

...as opposed to staying in the country and facing the disadvantages of doing so?

The reality now, as when the U.S. was formed, is that the U.S. is not a good place to be if one is unable or unwilling to be an active participant in capitalism, i.e., a capitalist or an enabler of capitalism, and one instead would sooner rail against capitalism and fight to minimize the free exercise of capitalist ideals. Let's be real. The founders, every last one of them, was a capitalist and they created a nation that supports success for capitalists, capitalists enablers, and pretty much few if any other types of personalities.

 

[JimBowie1958]

...as opposed to staying in the country and facing the disadvantages of doing so?
The reality now, as when the U.S. was formed, is that the U.S. is not a good place to be if one is unable or unwilling to be an active participant in capitalism,

And we need to change that, so that you dont have to be a capitalist to simply survive, raise a family and have enough for retirement.