Michelle420
Diamond Member
Most of the reports from both sides of the energy sector (fossil and renewable) focus on technical specifications and projections of known and linear variables. For example, Statoil most likely bases its projections on known demographic and economic trends of growth in population and income in emerging markets. These factors are not wrong in themselves of course, but other mitigating factors are not mentioned in their scenarios.
Many of the alternative scenarios go a little bit further and consider the implementation of political regulation and climate regulation, but they still often overlook cultural shifts and disruptive technologies. So are a few variables that we believe could change the energy landscape for the next generation beyond considerations already accounted for:
Younger generations eschew car ownership.
We have already seen the new trends with millennials. The sharing economy is all the hype now, and there is a shift towards embracing access to things than ownership. Much of this trend is due to age, and that millennials have postponed starting their adult lives with house and car ownership. But some of this is generational too. Millennials saw their boomer dads driving their Chevy to the levee, but the levee was dry. “What’s the point of having big car loans just to flaunt money you on’t really have?”, will be the recurring question from Gen Z’ers who have much more realistic economic expectations than their parents.
Alternative transportation and car-sharing.
Instead they rely on public transportation, car-sharing services and bikes. This is a long-term trend and does not indicate some psychographic blip where Generation Z can be expected to pick up the car-craze their Millennial predecessors didn’t have. From 1998 to 2008 the percentage of young household without cars increased with 20% to 28%.
How Will Our Youngest Generation Consume Energy