How soon to the next big correction/crash?

by when will the market crash

  • Dec

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • March

    Votes: 1 14.3%
  • June

    Votes: 2 28.6%
  • Sept

    Votes: 4 57.1%

  • Total voters
    7
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All 3 are facts of life but you won't go to a real person to validate those facts.
You must be an avid reader of The Wall Street Journal and Forbes.
The methodology is is right on the BLS website, so there is no need to go to a DOL and ask some admin how BLS collects data.

Fact: you said they survey companies to get part-timer data
Fact: BLS says that is from the household survey

From above facts we can conclude you really don't know much about this subject, and the constant suggesting to drive to a local DoL office don't change that.

Once again, point out the post where I state the BLS is dishonest.
Using unaudited data does not make an agency dishonest.
It simply means no analysis or prediction made upon that input can be trusted to ensure the future prosperity of a nation.
I already did, you just ignore it.

You have no idea whether their data is audited and you know it, remember you're the one confused about CES vs CPS so you can't expect anyone to believe you have some intimate knowledge of BLS statistical auditing procedures.

You're the only one talking about predictions in here, I'm taking about historical part-time worker data that say is phony but in 10 pages of a thread can't prove.
Translation: "Blah, blah, blah, blah, the unaudited data could be audited by little elves at the North Pole, blah, blah, blah, and if the unaudited data is piled all on top of each other five times and shaken not stirred, it becomes good blah blah blah..."

Dude, give it up already, you are humiliating yourself.
 
[
All 3 are facts of life but you won't go to a real person to validate those facts.
You must be an avid reader of The Wall Street Journal and Forbes.
The methodology is is right on the BLS website, so there is no need to go to a DOL and ask some admin how BLS collects data.

Fact: you said they survey companies to get part-timer data
Fact: BLS says that is from the household survey

From above facts we can conclude you really don't know much about this subject, and the constant suggesting to drive to a local DoL office don't change that.

Once again, point out the post where I state the BLS is dishonest.
Using unaudited data does not make an agency dishonest.
It simply means no analysis or prediction made upon that input can be trusted to ensure the future prosperity of a nation.
I already did, you just ignore it.

You have no idea whether their data is audited and you know it, remember you're the one confused about CES vs CPS so you can't expect anyone to believe you have some intimate knowledge of BLS statistical auditing procedures.

You're the only one talking about predictions in here, I'm taking about historical part-time worker data that say is phony but in 10 pages of a thread can't prove.
Listen...moron...(Oops! ad hominem)
I worked on Wall Street for 16 years for Banks and Brokerage Firms and they lie through their teeth on their web sites and the material they send you.
I met government auditors who unofficially authorized the creation of database audit trails to cover up deeds that should not be done.
I also read the same publications you read...the ones that keep telling us everything is great.
 
I worked on Wall Street for 16 years for Banks and Brokerage Firms and they lie through their teeth on their web sites and the material they send you.
I met government auditors who unofficially authorized the creation of database audit trails to cover up deeds that should not be done.
I also read the same publications you read...the ones that keep telling us everything is great.
One might say that lying is the lingua franca on Wall Street, from what I have heard.
 
I worked on Wall Street for 16 years for Banks and Brokerage Firms and they lie through their teeth on their web sites and the material they send you.
I met government auditors who unofficially authorized the creation of database audit trails to cover up deeds that should not be done.
I also read the same publications you read...the ones that keep telling us everything is great.
One might say that lying is the lingua franca on Wall Street, from what I have heard.
You just failed your Narcissist, Sociopath, Neo-Conservative Exam.
 
Listen...moron...(Oops! ad hominem)
I worked on Wall Street for 16 years for Banks and Brokerage Firms and they lie through their teeth on their web sites and the material they send you.
I met government auditors who unofficially authorized the creation of database audit trails to cover up deeds that should not be done.
I also read the same publications you read...the ones that keep telling us everything is great.
We'll file this right next to your "I know lots of people with advanced degrees" in terms of relevance here... zero. I don't read publications telling us everything is great (it isn't) although it is pretty amusing watching you alternate between bragging about your CV and inventing aspects of my life to attack. There is a big difference between thinking everyting is great (I don't) and being skeptical about your claims that BLS data is phony.

Maybe later we can have a thread about how glorious your career was, how smart your friends are, etc. but for now let's talk the subject on hand, BLS data on part timers.

So far your "proof" (aside from personal accolades) about phony data is being wrong about the data's source and having unfounded assumptions about auditing procedures. Do you actually have anything concrete here?
 
Listen...moron...(Oops! ad hominem)
I worked on Wall Street for 16 years for Banks and Brokerage Firms and they lie through their teeth on their web sites and the material they send you.
I met government auditors who unofficially authorized the creation of database audit trails to cover up deeds that should not be done.
I also read the same publications you read...the ones that keep telling us everything is great.
We'll file this right next to your "I know lots of people with advanced degrees" in terms of relevance here... zero. I don't read publications telling us everything is great (it isn't) although it is pretty amusing watching you alternate between bragging about your CV and inventing aspects of my life to attack. There is a big difference between thinking everyting is great (I don't) and being skeptical about your claims that BLS data is phony.

Maybe later we can have a thread about how glorious your career was, how smart your friends are, etc. but for now let's talk the subject on hand, BLS data on part timers.

So far your "proof" (aside from personal accolades) about phony data is being wrong about the data's source and having unfounded assumptions about auditing procedures. Do you actually have anything concrete here?

No one says the input is outright fake or phony.
We know it is because the result of the input almost always results in upping the Business Visa limit and severely underreporting the number of those earning minimum wage and/or being purposely employed less than 35 hours a week to avoid providing health benefits.
I presume you don't leave your house too often or when you do you're hobnobbing at the golf club because you seem to be severing lacking in seeing what's right in front of your face when you go shopping.
Of course, you MAY be shopping on Miracle Mile.
 
We know it is because the result of the input almost always results in upping the Business Visa limit and severely underreporting the number of those earning minimum wage and/or being purposely employed less than 35 hours a week to avoid providing health benefits.
I presume you don't leave your house too often or when you do you're hobnobbing at the golf club because you seem to be severing lacking in seeing what's right in front of your face when you go shopping.
Of course, you MAY be shopping on Miracle Mile.

You swing a deft scalpel, friend, a quick sharp scalpel.
 
We know it is because the result of the input almost always results in upping the Business Visa limit and severely underreporting the number of those earning minimum wage and/or being purposely employed less than 35 hours a week to avoid providing health benefits.
Nope, it has already been demonstrated in this thread many times that the data cited for part-timers comes from the Household Survey, so what businesses report isn't relevant. Your ability to soldier on leaning on an assumption that has been proven false warrants applause for perspicacity.

I presume you don't leave your house too often or when you do you're hobnobbing at the golf club because you seem to be severing lacking in seeing what's right in front of your face when you go shopping. Of course, you MAY be shopping on Miracle Mile
You assume wrong in your latest feeble attempt to portray aspects of my life negatively. I've never been to a golf club in my life, except for some software testing of GPS tracking devices over ten years ago.

Either way personal perceptions of shopping habits don't make BLS data on part time workers phony, but we'll add that to your ever growing list of flailing reasons why it could be and continue to hope that at some point you've provide actual evidence to support your claim instead of conjecture and needling at aspect of my personal life.
 
We know it is because the result of the input almost always results in upping the Business Visa limit and severely underreporting the number of those earning minimum wage and/or being purposely employed less than 35 hours a week to avoid providing health benefits.
I presume you don't leave your house too often or when you do you're hobnobbing at the golf club because you seem to be severing lacking in seeing what's right in front of your face when you go shopping.
Of course, you MAY be shopping on Miracle Mile.

You swing a deft scalpel, friend, a quick sharp scalpel.
I deal with tons of people; I am fascinated with people.
Some people can't tolerate my honesty; I can't tolerate their inability to deal with my honesty.
But there are LOTS of good people out there...some wealthy, some poor.
It's the person that counts, NOT the assets.
 
We know it is because the result of the input almost always results in upping the Business Visa limit and severely underreporting the number of those earning minimum wage and/or being purposely employed less than 35 hours a week to avoid providing health benefits.
Nope, it has already been demonstrated in this thread many times that the data cited for part-timers comes from the Household Survey, so what businesses report isn't relevant. Your ability to soldier on leaning on an assumption that has been proven false warrants applause for perspicacity.

I presume you don't leave your house too often or when you do you're hobnobbing at the golf club because you seem to be severing lacking in seeing what's right in front of your face when you go shopping. Of course, you MAY be shopping on Miracle Mile
You assume wrong in your latest feeble attempt to portray aspects of my life negatively. I've never been to a golf club in my life, except for some software testing of GPS tracking devices over ten years ago.

Either way personal perceptions of shopping habits don't make BLS data on part time workers phony, but we'll add that to your ever growing list of flailing reasons why it could be and continue to hope that at some point you've provide actual evidence to support your claim instead of conjecture and needling at aspect of my personal life.
You just don't get it.
Are the household surveys audited?
What we REALLY need is standardized electronic tracking of employment.
Honest employers wouldn't mind.
 
We know it is because the result of the input almost always results in upping the Business Visa limit and severely underreporting the number of those earning minimum wage and/or being purposely employed less than 35 hours a week to avoid providing health benefits.
Nope, it has already been demonstrated in this thread many times that the data cited for part-timers comes from the Household Survey, so what businesses report isn't relevant. Your ability to soldier on leaning on an assumption that has been proven false warrants applause for perspicacity.

I presume you don't leave your house too often or when you do you're hobnobbing at the golf club because you seem to be severing lacking in seeing what's right in front of your face when you go shopping. Of course, you MAY be shopping on Miracle Mile
You assume wrong in your latest feeble attempt to portray aspects of my life negatively. I've never been to a golf club in my life, except for some software testing of GPS tracking devices over ten years ago.

Either way personal perceptions of shopping habits don't make BLS data on part time workers phony, but we'll add that to your ever growing list of flailing reasons why it could be and continue to hope that at some point you've provide actual evidence to support your claim instead of conjecture and needling at aspect of my personal life.
Don't lose sight of the fact that YOU resorted to ad hominems WAY before I became in any way subjective.
 
You just don't get it.
Are the household surveys audited?
Okay wait, does this mean you are conceding you were wrong about the part-timer data coming from the establishment survey?

Regarding the household numbers, I have no idea what the auditing process of BLS is but not knowing sure wouldn't make me declare as fact that the numbers are phony because they aren't audited. Do you know that they aren't audited? Given your confusion CPS vs. CES I doubt you know much at all on how BLS manages their processes.

Don't lose sight of the fact that YOU resorted to ad hominems WAY before I became in any way subjective.
I couldn't care less how subjective you are, if anything it is funny watching someone stuck in a poor argument position desperately attempting to make it about me by making claims about me going to golf clubs (hah hah wtf) how my personal finances are managed, what publications send me stuff, whether I think everything is fine you just look worse because you've been wrong every time.

If you're trying to bolster your claim about phony data by attacking me it has proven as useless as the repeated bragging about your friends education levels.

So, where is that concrete proof that BLS data is phony?
 
You just don't get it.
Are the household surveys audited?
Okay wait, does this mean you are conceding you were wrong about the part-timer data coming from the establishment survey?

Regarding the household numbers, I have no idea what the auditing process of BLS is but not knowing sure wouldn't make me declare as fact that the numbers are phony because they aren't audited. Do you know that they aren't audited? Given your confusion CPS vs. CES I doubt you know much at all on how BLS manages their processes.

Don't lose sight of the fact that YOU resorted to ad hominems WAY before I became in any way subjective.
I couldn't care less how subjective you are, if anything it is funny watching someone stuck in a poor argument position desperately attempting to make it about me by making claims about me going to golf clubs (hah hah wtf) how my personal finances are managed, what publications send me stuff, whether I think everything is fine you just look worse because you've been wrong every time.

If you're trying to bolster your claim about phony data by attacking me it has proven as useless as the repeated bragging about your friends education levels.

So, where is that concrete proof that BLS data is phony?
Once again, no one said phony data.
Unaudited data is NOT to be used to determine the fiscal and economic policies of a nation.
Especially since the conclusions of that input have failed for almost a decade to improve our economy.
 
Once again, no one said phony data.
Ooops, short memory =

As an ex-software developer and non-Indian Business Visa, I couldn't care any less about the what the BLS has to say about anything. Their phony data is fed to them by the very same small to large size entities that want the cheapest labor possible.


Unaudited data is NOT to be used to determine the fiscal and economic policies of a nation.
Not that you have any idea whether it is audited, so you're basing your argument on an assumption that you have used as fact about a dozen times now.
 
Trying to determine how far out to buy puts.

I do leaps. You don't get the Big Bang with shorter term options but if your confident in major moves within the next year or more than can payoff nicely. I have call leaps on GDX they are moving nicely. It's hard to short this market right now, so much insanity. I like the gold play over the next 3-7 years tho.
 
Once again, no one said phony data.
Ooops, short memory =

As an ex-software developer and non-Indian Business Visa, I couldn't care any less about the what the BLS has to say about anything. Their phony data is fed to them by the very same small to large size entities that want the cheapest labor possible.


Unaudited data is NOT to be used to determine the fiscal and economic policies of a nation.
Not that you have any idea whether it is audited, so you're basing your argument on an assumption that you have used as fact about a dozen times now.
It's not audited.
The ONLY audit trail is the piece of paper itself.
Just like there are no audit trails for the millions of bad mortgages given during the housing bubble.
Speaking of which, I presume you believe that all the sub-prime mortgages were electronically approved and audited.
After all, Sarbanes-Oxley says it "gots ta be!"
Please tell me yes because I need a good laugh.
 
Stock Market Crash - History of the Stock Market Crash of 1929

Buying on Margin

When someone did not have the money to pay the full price of stocks, they could buy stocks "on margin." Buying stocks on margin means that the buyer would put down some of his own money, but the rest he would borrow from a broker. In the 1920s, the buyer only had to put down 10 to 20 percent of his own money and thus borrowed 80 to 90 percent of the cost of the stock.

Buying on margin could be very risky. If the price of stock fell lower than the loan amount, the broker would likely issue a "margin call," which means that the buyer must come up with the cash to pay back his loan immediately.

In the 1920s, many speculators (people who hoped to make a lot of money on the stock market) bought stocks on margin. Confident in what seemed a never-ending rise in prices, many of these speculators neglected to seriously consider the risk they were taking.

Signs of Trouble

By early 1929, people across the United States were scrambling to get into the stock market. The profits seemed so assured that even many companies placed money in the stock market. And even more problematically, some banks placed customers' money in the stock market (without their knowledge). With the stock market prices upward bound, everything seemed wonderful. When the great crash hit in October, these people were taken by surprise. However, there had been warning signs.

On March 25, 1929, the stock market suffered a mini-crash. It was a prelude of what was to come. As prices began to drop, panic struck across the country as margin calls were issued. When banker Charles Mitchell made an announcement that his bank would keep lending, his reassurance stopped the panic. Although Mitchell and others tried the tactic of reassurance again in October, it did not stop the big crash.

By the spring of 1929, there were additional signs that the economy might be headed for a serious setback. Steel production went down; house construction slowed; and car sales waned.

At this time, there were also a few reputable people warning of an impending, major crash; however, as month after month went by without one, those that advised caution were labeled pessimists and ignored.

Along those lines, I'd read or heard recently that retail buyers are pouring back into the market....things that make you go hmmm.
 

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