Tech_Esq
Sic Semper Tyrannis!
54 is a good number to put the over under at. I'd say if the Repubs really get their act together and the economy stays about where it is, it'll probably be more. The unemployment rate won't change significantly be November at this point. If it goes over 10, the Dems are dead. It won't make any real difference in their favor unless it goes under 9%, almost no chance of that.
On the other hand, if the Repubs go in with disorganized local races, it's probably a pick up in the 30s. The ground game is VERY strong on the repub side. The reports were this morning that Dem fund raising is down 65%. Apparently, Wall Street doesn't really like being bashed and regulated as much as the Dems thought they did. So, there are two aspects to the coming Dem defeat, the positive conservative/tea party ground game (which answers the question, if you dump the Social Cons., where do you get your ground soldiers from?); and the negative "We hate Dems and want them to die" from their former supporters. The last is the real wild card. How disaffected will the Dems be in November? Will they stay away in droves? If they do, that could overcome how ineffective Repub organization might be.
On the other hand, if the Repubs go in with disorganized local races, it's probably a pick up in the 30s. The ground game is VERY strong on the repub side. The reports were this morning that Dem fund raising is down 65%. Apparently, Wall Street doesn't really like being bashed and regulated as much as the Dems thought they did. So, there are two aspects to the coming Dem defeat, the positive conservative/tea party ground game (which answers the question, if you dump the Social Cons., where do you get your ground soldiers from?); and the negative "We hate Dems and want them to die" from their former supporters. The last is the real wild card. How disaffected will the Dems be in November? Will they stay away in droves? If they do, that could overcome how ineffective Repub organization might be.