Have we reached a so what point?

[william the wie]

Yesterday I put up a thread on bio-fuels to get some information about how quickly fuels made by algae, yeasts, molds and other micro-organisms would replace oil drilled out of the Earth, ans. 2-3 years for many types of uses. Earlier today I checked Chinese non-construction GDP growth. Well since 2003 there hasn't been any. 2003 Chinese GDP 3T current Chinese GDP 5T. Construction spending in China in 2003 1T construction spending in China 2010 3T so there has been effectively zero non-construction Chinese GDP growth in 7 years at least.

My theory is that we have reached a so what point in expanding the menu of goods and services in most of the developed world. Does that make sense to the rest of you?

 

[iamwhatiseem]

People began running out of debt to buy more stuff around 2006.

 

[Bern80]

Yesterday I put up a thread on bio-fuels to get some information about how quickly fuels made by algae, yeasts, molds and other micro-organisms would replace oil drilled out of the Earth, ans. 2-3 years for many types of uses. Earlier today I checked Chinese non-construction GDP growth. Well since 2003 there hasn't been any. 2003 Chinese GDP 3T current Chinese GDP 5T. Construction spending in China in 2003 1T construction spending in China 2010 3T so there has been effectively zero non-construction Chinese GDP growth in 7 years at least.

My theory is that we have reached a so what point in expanding the menu of goods and services in most of the developed world. Does that make sense to the rest of you?

Hard to say. You have to assume at some point the developing world is going to be the developed world and the question is will they have the same energy consumption patterns over time as we have, or will they be able to bi-pass the use of some fossil fuels. My guess is no, because the big reason we use fossil fuels is because their cheap. Inexpensive energy is a major key to keep developing countries developing. Until cleaner energy is as cost effective as fossils you aren't going to see developing nations use them. They literally can't afford to be environmentally conscious.

 

[william the wie]

Yesterday I put up a thread on bio-fuels to get some information about how quickly fuels made by algae, yeasts, molds and other micro-organisms would replace oil drilled out of the Earth, ans. 2-3 years for many types of uses. Earlier today I checked Chinese non-construction GDP growth. Well since 2003 there hasn't been any. 2003 Chinese GDP 3T current Chinese GDP 5T. Construction spending in China in 2003 1T construction spending in China 2010 3T so there has been effectively zero non-construction Chinese GDP growth in 7 years at least.

My theory is that we have reached a so what point in expanding the menu of goods and services in most of the developed world. Does that make sense to the rest of you?

Hard to say. You have to assume at some point the developing world is going to be the developed world and the question is will they have the same energy consumption patterns over time as we have, or will they be able to bi-pass the use of some fossil fuels. My guess is no, because the big reason we use fossil fuels is because their cheap. Inexpensive energy is a major key to keep developing countries developing. Until cleaner energy is as cost effective as fossils you aren't going to see developing nations use them. They literally can't afford to be environmentally conscious.

That's true. The US and earlier the UK have sat and do sit on some of the biggest coal fields and raw resources in the world. Savary invented the first steam driven mine pump in the 1690s to keep British coal pits open and some of those same mines are reportedly still in operation now. Cornish and Welsh tin is still being mined when prices get high enough. Those mines according to both archeology and philology have been in operation for 3-4000 years and the languages show evidence of having been influenced by Punic traders.

So yeah a breakthrough in energy would help but except for maybe China, India, Brazil, Nigeria and the Congo developing nations lack the river systems needed to develop their interiors the way the US and Russia did. Some island nations such as Indonesia, Madagascar, Sri Lanka and the Philippines can use the Japanese and UK model of development. However for the most part, except as tourist sites, most third world nations have no resources worth developing so cheap energy is not going to do them a whole lot of good.