Has ISIS overreached?

[Coyote]

Interesting analysis

Extremist Islamist groups often choose between two options: controlling territory locally or carrying out terrorist attacks abroad. In claiming responsibility for the Paris attacks, the Islamic State has made clear it thinks it can do both.

Traditionally it's been an either-or choice for extremist groups because it's so difficult to do both. For a group like ISIS that resembles a government and has a fixed address, it's risky to attack and antagonize another country. As a result, extremist groups that strike abroad tend to operate underground because they need to guard against retaliatory strikes.

Consider two basic models. One is the Taliban, which dominated life inside Afghanistan with their extreme brand of Islam, but displayed little interest in the world beyond their borders.

The other model is al-Qaida, a group that lives in the shadows and needs no permanent home. It can seem dormant for months or years, yet vows to carry out terrorist attacks anywhere on the globe at the time and place of its choosing.

The Islamic State now appears to be adopting both models simultaneously.


....but the six coordinated strikes in Paris on Friday night pointed to a high degree of organization and planning, as did the other recent attacks claimed by ISIS.

Why would ISIS do this when it could provoke a more powerful military response from its enemies?

William McCants, a Middle East analyst at the Brookings Institution and author of The ISIS Apocalypse, says the group's motives are not clear. But he notes that ISIS has lost about 25 percent of its territory in the past year and is feeling increased pressure from opponents that include the U.S., France, Russia and Iran.

"My suspicion is that [ISIS leaders] see these strikes as a deterrent, but they have miscalculated, and that it will serve rather to galvanize the international community to increase their efforts to destroy its government in Syria and Iraq," he told The Washington Post.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

It's only a question of time before John Kerry asks James Taylor to sing "You've got a Friend" to ISIS

 

[saveliberty]

This group is more extreme and better financed. Overreaching? When you control the money and can get people to blow themselves up, you can last a long time.

 

[Moonglow]

ISIS has lost battles and territories and now has to resort to guerrilla tactics...

 

[The Great Goose]

Like jews, arabs act independently. They decide their own level of involvement.

The IS had no stake in this and minimal involvement.

 

[Iceweasel]

They may have bit off more than they can chew but it's hard to reason with people who consider it an honor to choke to death for allah.

 

[candycorn]

Interesting analysis

Extremist Islamist groups often choose between two options: controlling territory locally or carrying out terrorist attacks abroad. In claiming responsibility for the Paris attacks, the Islamic State has made clear it thinks it can do both.

Traditionally it's been an either-or choice for extremist groups because it's so difficult to do both. For a group like ISIS that resembles a government and has a fixed address, it's risky to attack and antagonize another country. As a result, extremist groups that strike abroad tend to operate underground because they need to guard against retaliatory strikes.

Consider two basic models. One is the Taliban, which dominated life inside Afghanistan with their extreme brand of Islam, but displayed little interest in the world beyond their borders.

The other model is al-Qaida, a group that lives in the shadows and needs no permanent home. It can seem dormant for months or years, yet vows to carry out terrorist attacks anywhere on the globe at the time and place of its choosing.

The Islamic State now appears to be adopting both models simultaneously.


....but the six coordinated strikes in Paris on Friday night pointed to a high degree of organization and planning, as did the other recent attacks claimed by ISIS.

Why would ISIS do this when it could provoke a more powerful military response from its enemies?

William McCants, a Middle East analyst at the Brookings Institution and author of The ISIS Apocalypse, says the group's motives are not clear. But he notes that ISIS has lost about 25 percent of its territory in the past year and is feeling increased pressure from opponents that include the U.S., France, Russia and Iran.

"My suspicion is that [ISIS leaders] see these strikes as a deterrent, but they have miscalculated, and that it will serve rather to galvanize the international community to increase their efforts to destroy its government in Syria and Iraq," he told The Washington Post.

Over reached? I guess in a sense. Thomas Friedman, despite his penchant for putting arbitrary timelines onto decades old conflicts has some really good insights. Discussing 9/11 he stated pretty eloquently that the Middle East spawns tens of thousands of people willing to steer planes into buildings but only a few who could begin to understand how to build one.

What ISIS does is further isolate themselves (and they were pretty isolated to start with). Their appeal is to the lazy, uneducated, and frankly gullible ghetto dwellers in places like Mecca and Oman. Nobody of any intelligence or skill would join their root cause since it leads nowhere. That isn't to say that goals do not overlap temporarily. Every "victory" of killing innocent people hurts their recruiting. Real victory for ISIS is when we overreach and innocent persons are hurt or killed by American metal. They have no better recruitment material than that.

 

[Iceweasel]

What ISIS does is further isolate themselves (and they were pretty isolated to start with). Their appeal is to the lazy, uneducated, and frankly gullible ghetto dwellers in places like Mecca and Oman. Nobody of any intelligence or skill would join their root cause since it leads nowhere. That isn't to say that goals do not overlap temporarily. Every "victory" of killing innocent people hurts their recruiting. Real victory for ISIS is when we overreach and innocent persons are hurt or killed by American metal. They have no better recruitment material than that.

They aren't isolated enough or too stupid not to be able to carry out mass murder. So pontificating about it in some lofty holier than thou philosophy doesn't work in the real world. How many more examples do you need?

 

[candycorn]

What ISIS does is further isolate themselves (and they were pretty isolated to start with). Their appeal is to the lazy, uneducated, and frankly gullible ghetto dwellers in places like Mecca and Oman. Nobody of any intelligence or skill would join their root cause since it leads nowhere. That isn't to say that goals do not overlap temporarily. Every "victory" of killing innocent people hurts their recruiting. Real victory for ISIS is when we overreach and innocent persons are hurt or killed by American metal. They have no better recruitment material than that.

They aren't isolated enough or too stupid not to be able to carry out mass murder.

Nobody is except those in maximum security prisons or dead. Are you willing to commit 50-100 Thousand troops to wiping them out? If so, are you going to enlist....facilitate your daughter or son's enlistment? If not...why not.

You won't answer.

So pontificating about it in some lofty holier than thou philosophy doesn't work in the real world. How many more examples do you need?

Doesn't work? Jihadi John may disagree with you. So might OBL. So might KSM.

 

[aris2chat]

The radicalism behind ISIS seek a global reach, it is from from local. ISIS is already across the middle east. far out stretched beyond syria and iraq. It already have a reach to recruit from every country.

 

[candycorn]

What ISIS does is further isolate themselves (and they were pretty isolated to start with). Their appeal is to the lazy, uneducated, and frankly gullible ghetto dwellers in places like Mecca and Oman. Nobody of any intelligence or skill would join their root cause since it leads nowhere. That isn't to say that goals do not overlap temporarily. Every "victory" of killing innocent people hurts their recruiting. Real victory for ISIS is when we overreach and innocent persons are hurt or killed by American metal. They have no better recruitment material than that.

They aren't isolated enough or too stupid not to be able to carry out mass murder.

Nobody is except those in maximum security prisons or dead. Are you willing to commit 50-100 Thousand troops to wiping them out? If so, are you going to enlist....facilitate your daughter or son's enlistment? If not...why not.

You won't answer.

So pontificating about it in some lofty holier than thou philosophy doesn't work in the real world. How many more examples do you need?

Doesn't work? Jihadi John may disagree with you. So might OBL. So might KSM.

Well?

 

[Iceweasel]

What ISIS does is further isolate themselves (and they were pretty isolated to start with). Their appeal is to the lazy, uneducated, and frankly gullible ghetto dwellers in places like Mecca and Oman. Nobody of any intelligence or skill would join their root cause since it leads nowhere. That isn't to say that goals do not overlap temporarily. Every "victory" of killing innocent people hurts their recruiting. Real victory for ISIS is when we overreach and innocent persons are hurt or killed by American metal. They have no better recruitment material than that.

They aren't isolated enough or too stupid not to be able to carry out mass murder.

Nobody is except those in maximum security prisons or dead. Are you willing to commit 50-100 Thousand troops to wiping them out? If so, are you going to enlist....facilitate your daughter or son's enlistment? If not...why not.

You won't answer.

So pontificating about it in some lofty holier than thou philosophy doesn't work in the real world. How many more examples do you need?

Doesn't work? Jihadi John may disagree with you. So might OBL. So might KSM.

Well?

What the fuck is wrong with you? Seriously. I work for a living. We don't all get paid to sit on our asses in front of a computer screen. I said "They aren't isolated enough or too stupid not to be able to carry out mass murder" in response to your dumb comment and you went off on some bizarre tangent. They are not too isolated and not as dumb as you, that's for sure.

 

[candycorn]

What ISIS does is further isolate themselves (and they were pretty isolated to start with). Their appeal is to the lazy, uneducated, and frankly gullible ghetto dwellers in places like Mecca and Oman. Nobody of any intelligence or skill would join their root cause since it leads nowhere. That isn't to say that goals do not overlap temporarily. Every "victory" of killing innocent people hurts their recruiting. Real victory for ISIS is when we overreach and innocent persons are hurt or killed by American metal. They have no better recruitment material than that.

They aren't isolated enough or too stupid not to be able to carry out mass murder.

Nobody is except those in maximum security prisons or dead. Are you willing to commit 50-100 Thousand troops to wiping them out? If so, are you going to enlist....facilitate your daughter or son's enlistment? If not...why not.

You won't answer.

So pontificating about it in some lofty holier than thou philosophy doesn't work in the real world. How many more examples do you need?

Doesn't work? Jihadi John may disagree with you. So might OBL. So might KSM.

Well?

What the fuck is wrong with you? Seriously. I work for a living. We don't all get paid to sit on our asses in front of a computer screen. I said "They aren't isolated enough or too stupid not to be able to carry out mass murder" in response to your dumb comment and you went off on some bizarre tangent. They are not too isolated and not as dumb as you, that's for sure.

As predicted, you didn't answer. Douche.

I'll accept your surrender.

 

[Iceweasel]

What ISIS does is further isolate themselves (and they were pretty isolated to start with). Their appeal is to the lazy, uneducated, and frankly gullible ghetto dwellers in places like Mecca and Oman. Nobody of any intelligence or skill would join their root cause since it leads nowhere. That isn't to say that goals do not overlap temporarily. Every "victory" of killing innocent people hurts their recruiting. Real victory for ISIS is when we overreach and innocent persons are hurt or killed by American metal. They have no better recruitment material than that.

They aren't isolated enough or too stupid not to be able to carry out mass murder.

Nobody is except those in maximum security prisons or dead. Are you willing to commit 50-100 Thousand troops to wiping them out? If so, are you going to enlist....facilitate your daughter or son's enlistment? If not...why not.

You won't answer.

So pontificating about it in some lofty holier than thou philosophy doesn't work in the real world. How many more examples do you need?

Doesn't work? Jihadi John may disagree with you. So might OBL. So might KSM.

Well?

What the fuck is wrong with you? Seriously. I work for a living. We don't all get paid to sit on our asses in front of a computer screen. I said "They aren't isolated enough or too stupid not to be able to carry out mass murder" in response to your dumb comment and you went off on some bizarre tangent. They are not too isolated and not as dumb as you, that's for sure.

As predicted, you didn't answer. Douche.

I'll accept your surrender.

You can't even accept reality. I've served in the military, how about you?

 

[jon_berzerk]

It's only a question of time before John Kerry asks James Taylor to sing "You've got a Friend" to ISIS

--LOL

true

 

[shadow355]

ISIS has lost battles and territories and now has to resort to guerrilla tactics...

Nope .

They are not guerrilla tactics.

Read guerrilla tactics & low intensity conflict. Read about terrorism and terrorist tactics.

This is not guerrilla warfare by any means.

What is the definition of Terrorism?

What is the difference between ( two classes of bad guys ) a crazy and a criminal ?

What is the method of operation for terrorists?

Shadow 355 - prior US Military.

 

[shadow355]

The radicalism behind ISIS seek a global reach, it is from from local. ISIS is already across the middle east. far out stretched beyond syria and iraq. It already have a reach to recruit from every country.

It is about causing fear , injuries and fatalities. Having people live in fear , over react , increase threat and security posture .

To receive media attention which is also a recruiting tool for the terror groups.

Shadow 355

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Interesting analysis

Extremist Islamist groups often choose between two options: controlling territory locally or carrying out terrorist attacks abroad. In claiming responsibility for the Paris attacks, the Islamic State has made clear it thinks it can do both.

Traditionally it's been an either-or choice for extremist groups because it's so difficult to do both. For a group like ISIS that resembles a government and has a fixed address, it's risky to attack and antagonize another country. As a result, extremist groups that strike abroad tend to operate underground because they need to guard against retaliatory strikes.

Consider two basic models. One is the Taliban, which dominated life inside Afghanistan with their extreme brand of Islam, but displayed little interest in the world beyond their borders.

The other model is al-Qaida, a group that lives in the shadows and needs no permanent home. It can seem dormant for months or years, yet vows to carry out terrorist attacks anywhere on the globe at the time and place of its choosing.

The Islamic State now appears to be adopting both models simultaneously.


....but the six coordinated strikes in Paris on Friday night pointed to a high degree of organization and planning, as did the other recent attacks claimed by ISIS.

Why would ISIS do this when it could provoke a more powerful military response from its enemies?

William McCants, a Middle East analyst at the Brookings Institution and author of The ISIS Apocalypse, says the group's motives are not clear. But he notes that ISIS has lost about 25 percent of its territory in the past year and is feeling increased pressure from opponents that include the U.S., France, Russia and Iran.

"My suspicion is that [ISIS leaders] see these strikes as a deterrent, but they have miscalculated, and that it will serve rather to galvanize the international community to increase their efforts to destroy its government in Syria and Iraq," he told The Washington Post.

Over reached? I guess in a sense. Thomas Friedman, despite his penchant for putting arbitrary timelines onto decades old conflicts has some really good insights. Discussing 9/11 he stated pretty eloquently that the Middle East spawns tens of thousands of people willing to steer planes into buildings but only a few who could begin to understand how to build one.

What ISIS does is further isolate themselves (and they were pretty isolated to start with). Their appeal is to the lazy, uneducated, and frankly gullible ghetto dwellers in places like Mecca and Oman. Nobody of any intelligence or skill would join their root cause since it leads nowhere. That isn't to say that goals do not overlap temporarily. Every "victory" of killing innocent people hurts their recruiting. Real victory for ISIS is when we overreach and innocent persons are hurt or killed by American metal. They have no better recruitment material than that.

Exactly.

The intent of the attacks are to provoke a response, to lure Western powers – the United States in particular – into a conventional ground war in the Region, thus justifying ISIS' anti-Western rhetoric, reinforcing the lie that the West is 'anti-Islam,' and affording terrorists easy access to countless victims.

 

[candycorn]

They aren't isolated enough or too stupid not to be able to carry out mass murder.

Nobody is except those in maximum security prisons or dead. Are you willing to commit 50-100 Thousand troops to wiping them out? If so, are you going to enlist....facilitate your daughter or son's enlistment? If not...why not.

You won't answer.

So pontificating about it in some lofty holier than thou philosophy doesn't work in the real world. How many more examples do you need?

Doesn't work? Jihadi John may disagree with you. So might OBL. So might KSM.

Well?

What the fuck is wrong with you? Seriously. I work for a living. We don't all get paid to sit on our asses in front of a computer screen. I said "They aren't isolated enough or too stupid not to be able to carry out mass murder" in response to your dumb comment and you went off on some bizarre tangent. They are not too isolated and not as dumb as you, that's for sure.

As predicted, you didn't answer. Douche.

I'll accept your surrender.

You can't even accept reality. I've served in the military, how about you?

Gee, one would think you'd have more backbone than that if you did serve in the military...

 

[Phoenall]

Like jews, arabs act independently. They decide their own level of involvement.

The IS had no stake in this and minimal involvement.

How about a link to your racist claim that Jews act independently, or admit that you are inciting religious hatred and violence