Old Rocks
Diamond Member
In 1975, when the wingnuts claim that everybody was screaming "another ice age coming", this paper was published in a peer reviewed journal.
Clear predictions were made, and turned out to be quite accurate concerning the overall temperature rise. The 'sceptics' have yet to publish any such papers. In fact, they cannot even get the past decade right.
"Global Warming" turns 35 : A Few Things Ill Considered
Global Warming" turns 35
Category: Announcements general other blogs papers
Posted on: July 30, 2010 7:57 PM, by coby
This is not a reference to the recent three decades of rapidly increasing global temperatures, rather it is a reference to an aniversary of the first appearance of the term "global warming" in the peer reviewed literature. The paper was by Wally Broeker and titled "Are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming?"
Real Climate has an interesting post on the details of this paper. The short version is that despite numerous considerations in the paper that have played out differently than hypothesized, the overall prediction of temperature by the end of the 20th century was remarkably accurate.
In this paper, Broecker correctly predicted "that the present cooling trend will, within a decade or so, give way to a pronounced warming induced by carbon dioxide", and that "by early in the next century [carbon dioxide] will have driven the mean planetary temperature beyond the limits experienced during the last 1000 years". He predicted an overall 20th Century global warming of 0.8ºC due to CO2 and worried about the consequences for agriculture and sea level.
[....]
To those who even today claim that global warming is not predictable, the anniversary of Broecker's paper is a reminder that global warming was actually predicted before it became evident in the global temperature records over a decade later (when Jim Hansen in 1988 famously stated that "global warming is here").
Clear predictions were made, and turned out to be quite accurate concerning the overall temperature rise. The 'sceptics' have yet to publish any such papers. In fact, they cannot even get the past decade right.
"Global Warming" turns 35 : A Few Things Ill Considered
Global Warming" turns 35
Category: Announcements general other blogs papers
Posted on: July 30, 2010 7:57 PM, by coby
This is not a reference to the recent three decades of rapidly increasing global temperatures, rather it is a reference to an aniversary of the first appearance of the term "global warming" in the peer reviewed literature. The paper was by Wally Broeker and titled "Are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming?"
Real Climate has an interesting post on the details of this paper. The short version is that despite numerous considerations in the paper that have played out differently than hypothesized, the overall prediction of temperature by the end of the 20th century was remarkably accurate.
In this paper, Broecker correctly predicted "that the present cooling trend will, within a decade or so, give way to a pronounced warming induced by carbon dioxide", and that "by early in the next century [carbon dioxide] will have driven the mean planetary temperature beyond the limits experienced during the last 1000 years". He predicted an overall 20th Century global warming of 0.8ºC due to CO2 and worried about the consequences for agriculture and sea level.
[....]
To those who even today claim that global warming is not predictable, the anniversary of Broecker's paper is a reminder that global warming was actually predicted before it became evident in the global temperature records over a decade later (when Jim Hansen in 1988 famously stated that "global warming is here").
