Get ready to kiss you a** goodbye

[HereWeGoAgain]

The ice caps are the planet's heat sink. When they fall apart, all kinds of feedbacks kick in and the climate goes to hell in short order. Here's a graph that shows planetary ice extent. Notice anything frightening about 2016?

View attachment 107464

More troublesome yet, there are gigatons worth of methane clathrates ready to melt and contribute more greenhouse gasses than the planet has seen in millions of years.

I'm not advocating action. We're past all that now.

Al Gore...is that you?

 

[JoeNormal]

The ice caps are the planet's heat sink. When they fall apart, all kinds of feedbacks kick in and the climate goes to hell in short order. Here's a graph that shows planetary ice extent. Notice anything frightening about 2016?

View attachment 107464

More troublesome yet, there are gigatons worth of methane clathrates ready to melt and contribute more greenhouse gasses than the planet has seen in millions of years.

I'm not advocating action. We're past all that now.

You're 1st job, before crapping your pants, is to resolve the Japanese Sea Ice tracking with this "GLOBAL" sea ice graph of yours.

According to THIS the 2016 Dec sea ice was less than 0.8 mill km2 less than the 1980s average.

The other detail, which I checked just weeks ago on the NSIDC site is that the DEFICIT in 2017 (late 2016) in the Arctic was largely due to just ONE or TWO warmer days during the "onset of the ice growing season". That's why "ice" is not a thermometer or a metric that follows climate in the SHORT term.

You could LOSE all the Arctic Sea Ice, not raise the ocean levels and REBUILD it ALL in less than a couple decades. Since hardly any of it is "OLD ice"...

On the other side of the globe -- you had RECORD HIGH sea ice in Antarctica just a couple years ago. The panic here is that the tools are better and folks are seeing weather variations that were not AVAILABLE just 30 years ago BEFORE the satellite era.

Now --- there is NO DOUBT that Arctic sea ice is in long term decline. Has been since the Little Ice Age in the 1700s. But panicking about daily, monthly, yearly charts is not science.

Finally, there is not enough calthrates to melt due to surface exposures. Russians have said that the major reserves in the Siberia are most prone to earthquakes than from a few degrees of surface warming. And the harder question is -- if those feedbacks are so destructive and powerful -- how come ALL the calthrates did not melt during the rapid spikes of the last FOUR interglacial warming periods? Four TIMES -- most of the ice cover retreated putting MASSIVE amounts of CO2 CH4 back in circulation. Why did that STOP -- if CO2 drives the planet to commit suicide with just a 2degC forcing now? FOUR chances for the Earth "to run away" and destroy itself with "overloading" GH gases --- and it did not.

The chart shows GLOBAL sea ice extent (why are you only showing arctic ice extent?). There has been a lot of recession in Antarctica as well. We've had satellite detection for almost 40 years now and this appears to be the first year to show anything other than a gradual decline.

 

[flacaltenn]

Cool.

Barrow -26F
Kotelnly -4F
Golomjannayj 9F
Alert -4F

Very cool

LOL Not going to post your link this time, Comrade Frankie boi? Because there are other places in the arctic that are way above what they should be in mid-January.

Arctic Weather Map

Show us one (1)

Not just temperature guys. Ice doesn't build at the poles at it's HIGHEST rates without precipt. Antarctica is virtual desert and that factor varies WILDLY from year to year based on MINUTE amounts of precipt. The Arctic weather storm patterns will make a huge difference in sea ice build rates.

I'm just combating the "Arctic is 50F higher than normal" hysteria with actual Arctic temperature readings

Yep.. Actual station readings are ALWAYS better data than "re-analysis modeling" that triggered those panics..

 

[JoeNormal]

Looks like Fake News from the outgoing AGW Cult

Just go back to shopping.

No, really. The "Arctic is 50F warmer than usual" never actually happened. The chart is a fraud

Cool.

Barrow -26F
Kotelnly -4F
Golomjannayj 9F
Alert -4F

Very cool

Arctic Weather Map

Where is Golomjannayj? Not even Google has heard of it.

 

[flacaltenn]

The ice caps are the planet's heat sink. When they fall apart, all kinds of feedbacks kick in and the climate goes to hell in short order. Here's a graph that shows planetary ice extent. Notice anything frightening about 2016?

View attachment 107464

More troublesome yet, there are gigatons worth of methane clathrates ready to melt and contribute more greenhouse gasses than the planet has seen in millions of years.

I'm not advocating action. We're past all that now.

You're 1st job, before crapping your pants, is to resolve the Japanese Sea Ice tracking with this "GLOBAL" sea ice graph of yours.

According to THIS the 2016 Dec sea ice was less than 0.8 mill km2 less than the 1980s average.

The other detail, which I checked just weeks ago on the NSIDC site is that the DEFICIT in 2017 (late 2016) in the Arctic was largely due to just ONE or TWO warmer days during the "onset of the ice growing season". That's why "ice" is not a thermometer or a metric that follows climate in the SHORT term.

You could LOSE all the Arctic Sea Ice, not raise the ocean levels and REBUILD it ALL in less than a couple decades. Since hardly any of it is "OLD ice"...

On the other side of the globe -- you had RECORD HIGH sea ice in Antarctica just a couple years ago. The panic here is that the tools are better and folks are seeing weather variations that were not AVAILABLE just 30 years ago BEFORE the satellite era.

Now --- there is NO DOUBT that Arctic sea ice is in long term decline. Has been since the Little Ice Age in the 1700s. But panicking about daily, monthly, yearly charts is not science.

Finally, there is not enough calthrates to melt due to surface exposures. Russians have said that the major reserves in the Siberia are most prone to earthquakes than from a few degrees of surface warming. And the harder question is -- if those feedbacks are so destructive and powerful -- how come ALL the calthrates did not melt during the rapid spikes of the last FOUR interglacial warming periods? Four TIMES -- most of the ice cover retreated putting MASSIVE amounts of CO2 CH4 back in circulation. Why did that STOP -- if CO2 drives the planet to commit suicide with just a 2degC forcing now? FOUR chances for the Earth "to run away" and destroy itself with "overloading" GH gases --- and it did not.

The chart shows GLOBAL sea ice extent (why are you only showing arctic ice extent?). There has been a lot of recession in Antarctica as well. We've had satellite detection for almost 40 years now and this appears to be the first year to show anything other than a gradual decline.

Did you read my "guess" about how you can fudge a GLOBAL sea ice measurement? There's a lot of seasonal ice in Newfoundland. Down in the tip of S. Amer. HIGHLY variable --- but NOT at the poles.

That's how MOST of the Global Warming fudging occurs. By attempting to make GLOBAL estimates from scant or variable data and ignoring the ACTUAL climate changes in different Earth zones. May be news to you -- but the Earth doesn't HAVE just one Climate Zone that all reacts the same.

Anyways. --- Here ya go -- both poles at the same time. NOTHING measured below (IIRC) 20deg lattitude from the poles.

Note that in the ANTarctic -- 2014 was the HIGHEST year EVER on record in the satellite era...

Also note in the 1st chart I gave you -- there is a TINY DIT in the middle of November for Arctic Sea Ice.. That ONE DIT (just a day or two in time) where the build rate went to ZERO is the COMPLETE reason for the lower seasonal build so far "up there". It's mathematics. When you are at the MAXIMUM SLOPE of the curve, any deviation is MAGNIFIED in the points that follow..

You see the same effect in the newer Antarctic chart. Look at the rapid decline that occurred at the peak build in Early September. It was LITERALLY that ONE WEEK that causes the rest of the season to be under performing.

NOT -- some constant Global change of 0.6degC temperature in your lifetime..

 

[flacaltenn]

Looks like Fake News from the outgoing AGW Cult

Just go back to shopping.

No, really. The "Arctic is 50F warmer than usual" never actually happened. The chart is a fraud

Cool.

Barrow -26F
Kotelnly -4F
Golomjannayj 9F
Alert -4F

Very cool

Arctic Weather Map

Where is Golomjannayj? Not even Google has heard of it.

Evidentally the undergrad "climate students" that ran the modeling of the "Arctic is Burning Up" press release, never heard of it either. No Starbucks up there. All OCEAN. Very few buoys that are not even stationary. And the COAST stations are often extrapolated to include thousands of miles of UNMEASURED Arctic Ocean surface.

Don't be like NASA/GISS -- rely on your SATELLITES for measurements "up there" and "down there"...

 

[JoeNormal]

The ice caps are the planet's heat sink. When they fall apart, all kinds of feedbacks kick in and the climate goes to hell in short order. Here's a graph that shows planetary ice extent. Notice anything frightening about 2016?

View attachment 107464

More troublesome yet, there are gigatons worth of methane clathrates ready to melt and contribute more greenhouse gasses than the planet has seen in millions of years.

I'm not advocating action. We're past all that now.

You're 1st job, before crapping your pants, is to resolve the Japanese Sea Ice tracking with this "GLOBAL" sea ice graph of yours.

According to THIS the 2016 Dec sea ice was less than 0.8 mill km2 less than the 1980s average.

The other detail, which I checked just weeks ago on the NSIDC site is that the DEFICIT in 2017 (late 2016) in the Arctic was largely due to just ONE or TWO warmer days during the "onset of the ice growing season". That's why "ice" is not a thermometer or a metric that follows climate in the SHORT term.

You could LOSE all the Arctic Sea Ice, not raise the ocean levels and REBUILD it ALL in less than a couple decades. Since hardly any of it is "OLD ice"...

On the other side of the globe -- you had RECORD HIGH sea ice in Antarctica just a couple years ago. The panic here is that the tools are better and folks are seeing weather variations that were not AVAILABLE just 30 years ago BEFORE the satellite era.

Now --- there is NO DOUBT that Arctic sea ice is in long term decline. Has been since the Little Ice Age in the 1700s. But panicking about daily, monthly, yearly charts is not science.

Finally, there is not enough calthrates to melt due to surface exposures. Russians have said that the major reserves in the Siberia are most prone to earthquakes than from a few degrees of surface warming. And the harder question is -- if those feedbacks are so destructive and powerful -- how come ALL the calthrates did not melt during the rapid spikes of the last FOUR interglacial warming periods? Four TIMES -- most of the ice cover retreated putting MASSIVE amounts of CO2 CH4 back in circulation. Why did that STOP -- if CO2 drives the planet to commit suicide with just a 2degC forcing now? FOUR chances for the Earth "to run away" and destroy itself with "overloading" GH gases --- and it did not.

The chart shows GLOBAL sea ice extent (why are you only showing arctic ice extent?). There has been a lot of recession in Antarctica as well. We've had satellite detection for almost 40 years now and this appears to be the first year to show anything other than a gradual decline.

Did you read my "guess" about how you can fudge a GLOBAL sea ice measurement? There's a lot of seasonal ice in Newfoundland. Down in the tip of S. Amer. HIGHLY variable --- but NOT at the poles.

That's how MOST of the Global Warming fudging occurs. By attempting to make GLOBAL estimates from scant or variable data and ignoring the ACTUAL climate changes in different Earth zones. May be news to you -- but the Earth doesn't HAVE just one Climate Zone that all reacts the same.

Anyways. --- Here ya go -- both poles at the same time. NOTHING measured below (IIRC) 20deg lattitude from the poles.

Note that in the ANTarctic -- 2014 was the HIGHEST year EVER on record in the satellite era...

Also note in the 1st chart I gave you -- there is a TINY DIT in the middle of November for Arctic Sea Ice.. That ONE DIT (just a day or two in time) where the build rate went to ZERO is the COMPLETE reason for the lower seasonal build so far "up there". It's mathematics. When you are at the MAXIMUM SLOPE of the curve, any deviation is MAGNIFIED in the points that follow..

You see the same effect in the newer Antarctic chart. Look at the rapid decline that occurred at the peak build in Early September. It was LITERALLY that ONE WEEK that causes the rest of the season to be under performing.

NOT -- some constant Global change of 0.6degC temperature in your lifetime..

I don't take as much comfort in your Antarctic graph as you apparently do. The decline is so steep that it's hard to estimate exactly how many fewer square kilometers there are but it looks to me like it's around 2.5 million and it's way below the 95th percentile. I'll try not to freak but this still looks pretty ominous to me.

 

[flacaltenn]

The ice caps are the planet's heat sink. When they fall apart, all kinds of feedbacks kick in and the climate goes to hell in short order. Here's a graph that shows planetary ice extent. Notice anything frightening about 2016?

View attachment 107464

More troublesome yet, there are gigatons worth of methane clathrates ready to melt and contribute more greenhouse gasses than the planet has seen in millions of years.

I'm not advocating action. We're past all that now.

You're 1st job, before crapping your pants, is to resolve the Japanese Sea Ice tracking with this "GLOBAL" sea ice graph of yours.

According to THIS the 2016 Dec sea ice was less than 0.8 mill km2 less than the 1980s average.

The other detail, which I checked just weeks ago on the NSIDC site is that the DEFICIT in 2017 (late 2016) in the Arctic was largely due to just ONE or TWO warmer days during the "onset of the ice growing season". That's why "ice" is not a thermometer or a metric that follows climate in the SHORT term.

You could LOSE all the Arctic Sea Ice, not raise the ocean levels and REBUILD it ALL in less than a couple decades. Since hardly any of it is "OLD ice"...

On the other side of the globe -- you had RECORD HIGH sea ice in Antarctica just a couple years ago. The panic here is that the tools are better and folks are seeing weather variations that were not AVAILABLE just 30 years ago BEFORE the satellite era.

Now --- there is NO DOUBT that Arctic sea ice is in long term decline. Has been since the Little Ice Age in the 1700s. But panicking about daily, monthly, yearly charts is not science.

Finally, there is not enough calthrates to melt due to surface exposures. Russians have said that the major reserves in the Siberia are most prone to earthquakes than from a few degrees of surface warming. And the harder question is -- if those feedbacks are so destructive and powerful -- how come ALL the calthrates did not melt during the rapid spikes of the last FOUR interglacial warming periods? Four TIMES -- most of the ice cover retreated putting MASSIVE amounts of CO2 CH4 back in circulation. Why did that STOP -- if CO2 drives the planet to commit suicide with just a 2degC forcing now? FOUR chances for the Earth "to run away" and destroy itself with "overloading" GH gases --- and it did not.

The chart shows GLOBAL sea ice extent (why are you only showing arctic ice extent?). There has been a lot of recession in Antarctica as well. We've had satellite detection for almost 40 years now and this appears to be the first year to show anything other than a gradual decline.

Did you read my "guess" about how you can fudge a GLOBAL sea ice measurement? There's a lot of seasonal ice in Newfoundland. Down in the tip of S. Amer. HIGHLY variable --- but NOT at the poles.

That's how MOST of the Global Warming fudging occurs. By attempting to make GLOBAL estimates from scant or variable data and ignoring the ACTUAL climate changes in different Earth zones. May be news to you -- but the Earth doesn't HAVE just one Climate Zone that all reacts the same.

Anyways. --- Here ya go -- both poles at the same time. NOTHING measured below (IIRC) 20deg lattitude from the poles.

Note that in the ANTarctic -- 2014 was the HIGHEST year EVER on record in the satellite era...

Also note in the 1st chart I gave you -- there is a TINY DIT in the middle of November for Arctic Sea Ice.. That ONE DIT (just a day or two in time) where the build rate went to ZERO is the COMPLETE reason for the lower seasonal build so far "up there". It's mathematics. When you are at the MAXIMUM SLOPE of the curve, any deviation is MAGNIFIED in the points that follow..

You see the same effect in the newer Antarctic chart. Look at the rapid decline that occurred at the peak build in Early September. It was LITERALLY that ONE WEEK that causes the rest of the season to be under performing.

NOT -- some constant Global change of 0.6degC temperature in your lifetime..

I don't take as much comfort in your Antarctic graph as you apparently do. The decline is so steep that it's hard to estimate exactly how many fewer square kilometers there are but it looks to me like it's around 2.5 million and it's way below the 95th percentile. I'll try not to freak but this still looks pretty ominous to me.

I'm here as long as it takes to get out of the "panic attack".. There are things to worry about. ANTarctic SIE just might be one that you don't have to worry about. From the same source as your iniitial info.

If it helps -- I'll go fetch a more recent one. NOTE -- the only accurate way to MEASURE all of this SIE is by satellite. And the "record" for that only goes back 35 years or so.. And that doesn't even cover the last "pole ice panic" in the 1940s...

 

[Desperado]

Looks like Fake News from the outgoing AGW Cult

Yep sour grapes!
They heard they were on Trump's chopping block and they want to seem relevant!

 

[flacaltenn]

This is a "trickier view" of the Antarctic. Because it's a SNAPSHOT of only ONE day during the season for 35 years. So you have to pay attention to WHAT'S being plotted. Even tho the swings are getting WILDER, the trend is still upwards. Wilder swings probably have to do with OTHER factors like the precipt issue that I mentioned before.

 

[JoeNormal]

This is a "trickier view" of the Antarctic. Because it's a SNAPSHOT of only ONE day during the season for 35 years. So you have to pay attention to WHAT'S being plotted. Even tho the swings are getting WILDER, the trend is still upwards. Wilder swings probably have to do with OTHER factors like the precipt issue that I mentioned before.

What's the significance of day 258?

 

[flacaltenn]

Plots the MONTH average for FEB (maximum melt?) thru 2015

 

[flacaltenn]

This is a "trickier view" of the Antarctic. Because it's a SNAPSHOT of only ONE day during the season for 35 years. So you have to pay attention to WHAT'S being plotted. Even tho the swings are getting WILDER, the trend is still upwards. Wilder swings probably have to do with OTHER factors like the precipt issue that I mentioned before.

What's the significance of day 258?

I'm thinking that is AROUND the yearly Maximum? Would be late Sept, so S. Hemi "beginning of spring"??

 

[flacaltenn]

Look JoeNormal -- I am concerned. I am generally a skeptic about the more RADICAL and hysterical parts of GW theory. So I'm not NEARLY at the "kiss my ass goodbye" stage yet...

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Looks like Fake News from the outgoing AGW Cult

Just go back to shopping.

No, really. The "Arctic is 50F warmer than usual" never actually happened. The chart is a fraud

Cool.

Barrow -26F
Kotelnly -4F
Golomjannayj 9F
Alert -4F

Very cool

Arctic Weather Map

Where is Golomjannayj? Not even Google has heard of it.

Golomjannyj Island Weather Station Record - Historical weather for Golomjannyj Island, Russia

 

[flacaltenn]

I GTG work. But a couple other things to consider.

1) It's not SEA ice that is gonna drown your ass. Not from EITHER pole.. It's LAND ice. From Greenland and Antarctica primarily. And to LOSE MASSIVE amounts from a continent like Antarctica is only gonna happen at the END of any extraordinary warming period in a place where it's below -15degF most of the year. Sublimation and drought being the ONLY factors that you would see now until the next century. And sublimation can happen with a run-up in Total Solar Irradiance. Like the one we've seen since the 1700s.

2) An "ice free Arctic Ocean" is a neglected NEGATIVE feedback restraining the "runaway warming" theories. Because an ice barren very cold sea is a WONDERFUL "new" CO2 sink. .The equivalent of planting a new virgin forest the size of Australia..

 

[flacaltenn]

Just go back to shopping.

No, really. The "Arctic is 50F warmer than usual" never actually happened. The chart is a fraud

Cool.

Barrow -26F
Kotelnly -4F
Golomjannayj 9F
Alert -4F

Very cool

Arctic Weather Map

Where is Golomjannayj? Not even Google has heard of it.

Golomjannyj Island Weather Station Record - Historical weather for Golomjannyj Island, Russia

Golo Island.. Translates to English as "Island of Political Dissidents." Brrrrrrr !!!!!

 

[Old Rocks]

Just go back to shopping.

No, really. The "Arctic is 50F warmer than usual" never actually happened. The chart is a fraud

Cool.

Barrow -26F
Kotelnly -4F
Golomjannayj 9F
Alert -4F

Very cool

LOL Not going to post your link this time, Comrade Frankie boi? Because there are other places in the arctic that are way above what they should be in mid-January.

Arctic Weather Map

Show us one (1)

Tostuya 0
Cape Cheluskin 5
Golomjannyj 14
Vize Island 12

Arctic Weather Map

And there are at least seven more on that map that are very warm for this time of year.

December 2016 compared to previous years

Figure 3. Monthly December ice extent for 1979 to 2016 shows a decline of 3.4 percent per decade.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Global sea ice tracking far below average

Figure 6a. This time series of daily global sea ice extent (Arctic plus Antarctic) shows global extent tracking below the 1981 to 2010 average. The X axis shows the month of the year, aligned with the first day of the month. Sea Ice Index data.

Credit: NSIDC
High-resolution image


Figure 6b. This graph shows daily global sea ice difference from average, relative to the 1981 to 2010 reference period in square kilometers for the satellite record from 1979 through 2016

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image


Figure 6c. This graph shows daily sea ice difference from average in units of the standard deviation (based on 1981-2010 variation from the average) for this period.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image




Image 2 of 4 (play slideshow) Download

 

[Old Rocks]

Cool.

Barrow -26F
Kotelnly -4F
Golomjannayj 9F
Alert -4F

Very cool

LOL Not going to post your link this time, Comrade Frankie boi? Because there are other places in the arctic that are way above what they should be in mid-January.

Arctic Weather Map

Show us one (1)

Not just temperature guys. Ice doesn't build at the poles at it's HIGHEST rates without precipt. Antarctica is virtual desert and that factor varies WILDLY from year to year based on MINUTE amounts of precipt. The Arctic weather storm patterns will make a huge difference in sea ice build rates.

I'm just combating the "Arctic is 50F higher than normal" hysteria with actual Arctic temperature readings

You dumb lying fuck, that was not a claim for the whole of the winter, but one day during the winter. However, it has been unusually warm in the Arctic this winter, and the sea ice in the Arctic clearly shows that.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Funny as hell... drama queens...

Can any alarmist tell me how we survived NH total ice loss at least 4 times this interglacial cycle alone?