Gasp a Depression?

[Annie]

Fast food joints are still advertising for people where I'm at.

This ain't no "depression."

We may not agree bottom line, but here, yeah.

 

[American Horse]

HI there! I am hoping that some of you can shed some light on the situation out here in good old sunny southern California. First off I want to start off by saying that we are in a depression, period end of story.... <SNIP> ....What gives? I am not one to jump on the band wagon but I am seeing it with my very own eyes. I see it coming, like a wave off in the distance&#8230;and it is big! Huge even and everyone else is just averting their eyes to it. Why? Why? Why? Why?

You did not say whether or not you or your husband are out of work, but the state of California is near to being in a depression, and you can expect it to get worse. And when you in California, New York, and New Jersey succeed in convincing the Federal Government that your state(s) should be bailed out you will have exported your depression to the rest of the country in some ways the same as your state exports its GHG's, by failing to recognize what it's doing.

Here's an interesting US map. If you hover your cursor over any county on this map you will find how much in economic stimulus money is being/about to be spent in any county, and in the top right corner of the pane that opens up you will find revealed the population and unemployment rate for that county. Check it out. The Unemployment Rate in California Counties runs in the high teens and even up to 25%. It looks like large parts of California are in a "Depression", just as we were told by the Democrats - and it was true - that some parts of the US were in a recession while others were not.

 

[Annie]

HI there! I am hoping that some of you can shed some light on the situation out here in good old sunny southern California. First off I want to start off by saying that we are in a depression, period end of story.... <SNIP> ....What gives? I am not one to jump on the band wagon but I am seeing it with my very own eyes. I see it coming, like a wave off in the distance…and it is big! Huge even and everyone else is just averting their eyes to it. Why? Why? Why? Why?

You did not say whether or not you or your husband are out of work, but the state of California is near to being in a depression, and you can expect it to get worse. And when you in California, New York, and New Jersey succeed in convincing the Federal Government that your state(s) should be bailed out you will have exported your depression to the rest of the country in some ways the same as your state exports its GHG's, by failing to recognize what it's doing.

Here's an interesting US map. If you hover your cursor over any county on this map you will find how much in economic stimulus money is being/about to be spent in any county, and in the top right corner of the pane that opens up you will find revealed the population and unemployment rate for that county. Check it out. The Unemployment Rate in California Counties runs in the high teens and even up to 25%. It looks like large parts of California are in a "Depression", just as we were told by the Democrats - and it was true - that some parts of the US were in a recession while others were not.

I respectfully disagree with your premise. Ca claims to be in a depression, due to their problems regarding a state. Truth is, the actions of the state may be pushing them populace of the state into depression, but that shouldn't mean the country pulls them out of such.

It's their choice to be the open door of progressive movement, which all the US should acknowledge for better or worse. Do where do we go? US v World?

 

[American Horse]

I respectfully disagree with your premise. Ca claims to be in a depression, due to their problems regarding a state. Truth is, the actions of the state may be pushing them populace of the state into depression, but that shouldn't mean the country pulls them out of such.

It's their choice to be the open door of progressive movement, which all the US should acknowledge for better or worse. Do where do we go? US v World?

My concern is that California, New York state, New Jersey and a few other of these like minded states end up needing to be bailed out, thus ending Federalism vs State relationships as we know them.

 

[Annie]

I respectfully disagree with your premise. Ca claims to be in a depression, due to their problems regarding a state. Truth is, the actions of the state may be pushing them populace of the state into depression, but that shouldn't mean the country pulls them out of such.

It's their choice to be the open door of progressive movement, which all the US should acknowledge for better or worse. Do where do we go? US v World?

My concern is that California, New York state, New Jersey and a few other of these like minded states end up needing to be bailed out, thus ending Federalism vs State relationships as we know them.

Your problem is with your premise. The US doesn't own the debt of the states. Thus, CA ownes CA debt. Wrap your arms around it. Feel good? Now the US gov't under President Obama wishes the same wonderful feel good for all Americans, not just Californians. Grab it! Love it, feel it!

 

[American Horse]

I respectfully disagree with your premise. Ca claims to be in a depression, due to their problems regarding a state. Truth is, the actions of the state may be pushing them populace of the state into depression, but that shouldn't mean the country pulls them out of such.

It's their choice to be the open door of progressive movement, which all the US should acknowledge for better or worse. Do where do we go? US v World?

My concern is that California, New York state, New Jersey and a few other of these like minded states end up needing to be bailed out, thus ending Federalism vs State relationships as we know them.

Your problem is with your premise. The US doesn't own the debt of the states. Thus, CA ownes CA debt. Wrap your arms around it. Feel good? Now the US gov't under President Obama wishes the same wonderful feel good for all Americans, not just Californians. Grab it! Love it, feel it!

Obama could very well bail out California just as he has GM, Chrysler, AIG, Etal. That would mean than California would have no reason to act responsibly in the future, and other states would follow suit; a snowball effect could ensue and the US Government could end up owning those states. It could get very complicated as we see with GM and the president through his Czar deciding minor decisions politically, like where should corporate offices be or how much ought a car weigh. Translated into state issues, state boundaries could in effect become nothing more or less than lines of administration.

 

[editec]

at lease we Americans can spell.

But you keep believing the line that we're in a depression. i was out for a cocktail with my lovely wife last night and the bar was packed with people drinking $10 margaritas and $5 pints and there was an hour wait for a table.

If we were all as bad off as you say wouldn't people be staying home and drinking Pabst at $12 a case?

Doesn't that depend on your class and income?

Perhaps you ought to check out a bar where if you ordered a margarita the bartender would laugh in your face.

I suspect you'd find a slightly different reality there.

You mean those bars in Maine that serve both kinds of beer

Bud AND Bud light?

and FYI i am as blue collar as it gets. My favorite bars are biker bars

ACtually the area of Maine I'm in doesn't really have much a a bar-culture.

Hereabouts the drinkers are most jerrysneaks who sit and home drinking Allens coffeebrady and milk.

But yeah, those were the bars I was talking about.

Working people's bars.

 

[mal]

I can't say this is a depression. My business is pulling in on average better than 20% more than last year.

And if this really was a depression would new i phones be back ordered for a month?

Or Lines @ Eateries where People are Purchasing Mixed Drynks and Steaks...

Lines to the Soup?... Not.

Economies Recede... One of the Worst Legacies of Clinton was the Perception that he and his "Free Press" Created of "Surpluses for 25 Years" and this Economy can't Fail...

40 Days after he Left, it was a Recession...

They happen... Get a Helmet People.



peace...

 

[Maple]

Hippie Chick, I beleive you, The legislature out there in your state are the most irresponsible politicians on earth. They have overspent, overtaxed and have done little to control their out of control spending. Business's have moved out of California because they can't afford to pay their taxes and on and on it goes. New York is next then New Jersey. Unfortunately none of this is going to change until everyone gets a belly full of this. Then this country will swing hard right, by the time Obama ends his first term, you will be able to run your local dog catcher against him and win.

 

[pinqy]

I have not ignored the dynamics of the Labor Force. I have addressed those issues in numerous other posts that I know you have read. The fact remains that the horribly corrupt Obama Administration is trying to get people to believe that of 2.8 Million Americans who file for Unemployment Compensation each month, 2.1 Million of them find jobs right away. Then his stooges create numbers out of thin air to downsize the remaining 700,000 unemployed to only 345,000.

Coming back to this, because I realized how to demonstrate the idiocy of this claim better. If you look at Table A-9 of the Employment Situation, it breaks down the 14,511,000 Unemployed by duration of Unemployment. For May, 3,274,000 had been unemployed for less than 5 weeks. Kind of disproves your claim that anybody is trying to get you to believe that 2.1 million found jobs right away. Note that this 3.274 million is higher than the UI claims would indicate, because not all the newly unemployed had jobs before and of those that did not all were eligible for UI or just hadn't claimed yet.

 

[editec]

If you think that the economy is sound try looking at the help wanted ads in practically any city in America.

Pretty thin pickings there, folks.

 

[Skull Pilot]

Doesn't that depend on your class and income?

Perhaps you ought to check out a bar where if you ordered a margarita the bartender would laugh in your face.

I suspect you'd find a slightly different reality there.

You mean those bars in Maine that serve both kinds of beer

Bud AND Bud light?

and FYI i am as blue collar as it gets. My favorite bars are biker bars

ACtually the area of Maine I'm in doesn't really have much a a bar-culture.

Hereabouts the drinkers are most jerrysneaks who sit and home drinking Allens coffeebrady and milk.

But yeah, those were the bars I was talking about.

Working people's bars.

Coffee Sombreros

 

[midcan5]

Yes, Hippiechick, there are depressions and this surely is one. But just as in that other fairy tale, the Reaganomics moonies still believe that lower taxes for the wealthy and the corporations, union destruction, wage destruction, outsourcing, and deregulation still live in the hearts and minds of the nave tools. Even some quite well to people I know well are doing much worse today.


Summary
Timeline of the Great Depression
The Great Depression, to 1935
The Main Causes of the Great Depression
Stiff upper lip.

 

[mal]

If you think that the economy is sound try looking at the help wanted ads in practically any city in America.

Pretty thin pickings there, folks.

Gonna need a Quote of someone saying the Economy is Sound right now...

And a Definition of "Sound"...



peace...

 

[xotoxi]

ACtually the area of Maine I'm in doesn't really have much a a bar-culture.

Hereabouts the drinkers are most jerrysneaks who sit and home drinking Allens coffeebrady and milk.

When I have a patient (usually female) who tells me that they drink coffee brandy, I know that they are a pretty severe alcoholic.

 

[Neubarth]

You keep on lookin' for an argument in the manner in which you post. Lighten up!

Yes, I am looking for an argument
I know I've explained the different numbers and where they come from and why they don't match before, but you keep ignoring it.

.

When what you write is total nonsense, OF COURSE I am going to ignore it. I have mentioned that they are three different reports. I have stated that on numerous occasions. The fact remains that they are totally bogus in the congregate. Lie after lie after lie, just like your posts. At the extreme, we are going to have 3 Million file for Unemployment Compensation and the Obama administration will loudly proclaim that Employment soared in the month of June.

The monthly unemployment report is not the people laid off in factories. It is a total fiction that in this administration has become totally laughable.

 

[pinqy]

When what you write is total nonsense,

That's an assertion. Now make an argument. In what way is what I write nonsense? What in particular are you objecting to?

I have mentioned that they are three different reports. I have stated that on numerous occasions.

Yes you have, but you ignore that they measure different things and continue to claim that if there are 2.5 million UI claims in a month, then its nonsense that payroll employent only went down 345,000 and Unemployment went up 787,000. I've explained and explained, but you refuse to see how they shouldn't match up like that because neither while UI does show the number of people who lost their jobs (and file for UI), the -345,000 and the +787,000 are NOT the number of people who lost their jobs.

The fact remains that they are totally bogus in the congregate. Lie after lie after lie, just like your posts.

Point out my lies. What have I said that is factually incorrect? If you actually looked at the numbers, and understood them, you'd see that they all do roughly match up (discrepencies are inevitable given different samples, time periods, etc)

Look at how they do match up....UI for April (from the 4th, 11th, 18th, and 25th) was a total of 2,553,000 new claims. BLS Jolts for all April shows 2,557,000 layoffs, and 2,161,000 other seperations for a total of 4,718,000 people leaving their jobs. At the same time JOLTS also shows 4,165,000 hires. 4,165,000-4,718,000 = -553,000 which is not too far from the -345,000 change in the Establishment survey when you consider the offset in time (JOLTS is all of April, non-farm payroll is the difference between the week of Aprilcontaining the 12th and the week of May containing the 12th), and likely future downward adjustments from late reporting.

[qutoe] At the extreme, we are going to have 3 Million file for Unemployment Compensation and the Obama administration will loudly proclaim that Employment soared in the month of June. [/quote]While I don't expect that to be true (as I don't expect Employment to go up), how would that be a lie if, while 3 million file, 5 million others are hired? That would be Employment going up!

The monthly unemployment report is not the people laid off in factories.

It includes them. Table A-9 shows the number of people newly unemployed in the previous 5 weeks. Unemployed by industry is included. Employment by industry is included. JOLTS lists hires and seperations by industry.

It is a total fiction that in this administration has become totally laughable.

And yet your attempts to show how they are fiction depend on completely misinterpreting what they are supposed to represent. And it's been the same methodology for many years...Obama has made no changes to how anything is calculated...he doesn't have that authority anyway.

Try, just once, to make an actual argument instead of shouting "Lies!" Show some evidence that refutes my claims.

 

[HippieChick75]

To answer a few questions that were given to me: 1.My husband does still have a job. I have a job as well. 2. Annie:The bread issue. I lived in Hawaii briefly and paid over 5 bucks for milk, prices are different across the country. Just bought some bread today for a whopping great price of $3.59 on sale from Starter Brothers. I am not going to argue this subject further. Still don't believe me? Come take a visit to CA. Check out the prices of bread and more importantly view the homeless while your here. Then let me know what you think about the depression. You can further argue your point with me that all of the homeless people, foreclosed empty houses, and tent cities are all figments of our imaginations. Ignorance is bliss. 3. Maple thanks for agreeing with me, California is in really bad shape.

I have never seen the likes of what I have witnessed these past 6 months. I am a teacher and I have seen families suffering beyond the norm....families living down the street in cars from the school, parents cooking their meals on park BBQ's because there is no other place for them to cook, 18 people crammed into a 3 bedroom house, students coming to me for food cause they are hungry, the tales go on and on. I do not work in the ghetto. In fact quite the opposite I work in the midst of million dollar homes, many of them empty.

California will beg to be bailed out ~ there is no doubt in my mind. CA will try and declare bankruptcy. California has an economy almost like a small country ~ therefore it has the capacity, like someone else earlier noted, to bring down the entire economy of the US. I don't know what the answer is. I don't know how to help my students or even those in my community.

For those of you that say you and your state are not effected ~ you are extremely lucky. I hope what I have seen and heard will never happen to you or your community. But from over here in sunny Southern California it is not good. It is like a Great Depression here, only modernized. I look at the chaos that I see every day and wonder with a shudder what next......

So Cal Hippie

 

[editec]

ACtually the area of Maine I'm in doesn't really have much a a bar-culture.

Hereabouts the drinkers are most jerrysneaks who sit and home drinking Allens coffeebrady and milk.

When I have a patient (usually female) who tells me that they drink coffee brandy, I know that they are a pretty severe alcoholic.

Maine is hands down the higher per capita consumer of Allen's Coffee Brandy (they're too poor to buy the good coffee liquors) in the world, according to Allens.

I think basically, since this area is the place where the temperance movement really started, people don't really drink.

So those that do drink for effect and don't like the taste of real alcoholic drink that crap.

And coffee brady and milk is more like a milk shake than a real drink.

This taste for that milk based alchoholic drink probably explains why Mainers are also the second fattest people in America (after Alabama, I think)

 

[Neubarth]

I have not ignored the dynamics of the Labor Force. I have addressed those issues in numerous other posts that I know you have read. The fact remains that the horribly corrupt Obama Administration is trying to get people to believe that of 2.8 Million Americans who file for Unemployment Compensation each month, 2.1 Million of them find jobs right away. Then his stooges create numbers out of thin air to downsize the remaining 700,000 unemployed to only 345,000.

Coming back to this, because I realized how to demonstrate the idiocy of this claim better. If you look at Table A-9 of the Employment Situation, it breaks down the 14,511,000 Unemployed by duration of Unemployment. For May, 3,274,000 had been unemployed for less than 5 weeks. Kind of disproves your claim that anybody is trying to get you to believe that 2.1 million found jobs right away. Note that this 3.274 million is higher than the UI claims would indicate, because not all the newly unemployed had jobs before and of those that did not all were eligible for UI or just hadn't claimed yet.

YOU have to be the world's biggest fuggin pretend idiot. I keep on tellin you that the Government numbers are totally bogus and you keep on pointing back to the numbers as if they are GOD Almighty.

Listen, When the Unemployment Claims add up to almost 3 million in a month and the DOL is saying that only 600,000 were added to the unemployment rolls, you know that Federal Data is a crock of shit.

I have listed how they tabulate the data by supposedly taking a survey. I can believe they take a sham survey, but the numbers they end up with are total fantasy. They add numbers in and subtract numbers that they do not want, like their death/birth index, and their index of "jobs they do not know about" and so on. When they get done, the number they have arrived at is just a political ploy number.

Now, you may want to believe or pretend to believe the numbers they broadcast and WILL broadcast this Thursday since Friday is a holiday, but I am not that delusional.

The states report the number who have filed, and those numbers tell me we are in a Depression. That is all I need to see. The two government surveys are totally bogus.