The Paperboy
Times Square
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Gallup uses three different models. The "traditional" model has Obama +2.
From Gallup:
The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today's results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll's margin of error.
Full article here
unfortunately, it doesnt say what they use as a sample rateGallup uses three different models. The "traditional" model has Obama +2.
From Gallup:
The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today's results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll's margin of error.
Full article here
What is the percentages of Dems, Reps vs Indies polled in the survey? In the CBS one they didn't poll appropriate numbers of Republicans vs actual numbers in the population.
What about your religion and your guns?
Don't own a gun (never even fired one) and haven't been to church since I was 2 but that doesn't mean I'm not religious.
Other obsessions: My kids, Eric Clapton and Tampa Bay Bucs.
Sorry if I don't fit into your pigeon hole.
The weighting thing is a stupid argument. Good pollsters have a weighting scheme based on how many of each party is in the population.
So if you poll 10 dems and 9 say they'll vote obama, and you poll 20 repubs and all say they'll vote mccain, you assume all repubs in the population vote mccain and 90% of dems vote obama. - and they come out roughly even.
It doesn't matter if you oversample one group or the other, you correct it before you put out the numebrs.
AND, it's the trends that are more important anyway. McCain shot up after Palin, that made sense. He is down since she started making a fool of her self. That also makes sense.
Eric Clapton rocks.
Gallup Daily: Obama 49%, McCain 43% NEW October 16, 2008
The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report from Monday through Wednesday shows Barack Obama with a 49%to 43% lead over John McCain among registered voters.
The only reason Obama is ahead right now is because the economy has dominated the headlines for the past 4 weeks. Otherwise the race is a dead heat or McCain is ahead. If the economy chills out for the next 20 days Obama could be in trouble. This is all just my opinion and not very important but I do think in the end it will be a very close election. And Obama better damn well hope that there isn't a terrorist attack or that Israel doesn't lob a bomb over to Iran. And of course that Rezko keeps quiet. Should be an interesting next 20 days.
actually, it does matter on the sample rateThe weighting thing is a stupid argument. Good pollsters have a weighting scheme based on how many of each party is in the population.
So if you poll 10 dems and 9 say they'll vote obama, and you poll 20 repubs and all say they'll vote mccain, you assume all repubs in the population vote mccain and 90% of dems vote obama. - and they come out roughly even.
It doesn't matter if you oversample one group or the other, you correct it before you put out the numebrs.
AND, it's the trends that are more important anyway. McCain shot up after Palin, that made sense. He is down since she started making a fool of her self. That also makes sense.
scroll downthat's interesting paperboy...
http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
did I miss the part where you say just joking?
scroll down
to where they talk about "likely voters"
scroll down
to where they talk about "likely voters"