Gallup: Obama +2

[The Paperboy]

 

[Modbert]

Gallup uses three different models. The "traditional" model has Obama +2.

From Gallup:

The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today's results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll's margin of error.

Full article here

I love how you return when McCain might actually gain a point in some polls.

 

[The Paperboy]

Thanks. I'll take all the love I can get. Actually I was out of town for a week spreading the wealth.

 

[DiveCon]

Gallup uses three different models. The "traditional" model has Obama +2.

From Gallup:

The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today's results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll's margin of error.

Full article here

unfortunately, it doesnt say what they use as a sample rate
but, it fits with past elections where the lcloser they get to the actual election, the closer they get

 

[Angel Heart]

What is the percentages of Dems, Reps vs Indies polled in the survey? In the CBS one they didn't poll appropriate numbers of Republicans vs actual numbers in the population.

 

[Modbert]

What is the percentages of Dems, Reps vs Indies polled in the survey? In the CBS one they didn't poll appropriate numbers of Republicans vs actual numbers in the population.

Remember all:

Any poll that might have any sort of Democrat having a remote chance of winning is a Liberal Myth.

 

[xsited1]

 

[Caligirl]

The weighting thing is a stupid argument. Good pollsters have a weighting scheme based on how many of each party is in the population.

So if you poll 10 dems and 9 say they'll vote obama, and you poll 20 repubs and all say they'll vote mccain, you assume all repubs in the population vote mccain and 90% of dems vote obama. - and they come out roughly even.

It doesn't matter if you oversample one group or the other, you correct it before you put out the numebrs.

AND, it's the trends that are more important anyway. McCain shot up after Palin, that made sense. He is down since she started making a fool of her self. That also makes sense.

 

[The Paperboy]

What about your religion and your guns?

Don't own a gun (never even fired one) and haven't been to church since I was 2 but that doesn't mean I'm not religious.

Other obsessions: My kids, Eric Clapton and Tampa Bay Bucs.

Sorry if I don't fit into your pigeon hole.

 

[Caligirl]

Caligirl vouches that California is nauseated.

 

[The Paperboy]

Best map I've seen yet.

 

[Caligirl]

Don't own a gun (never even fired one) and haven't been to church since I was 2 but that doesn't mean I'm not religious.

Other obsessions: My kids, Eric Clapton and Tampa Bay Bucs.

Sorry if I don't fit into your pigeon hole.

Eric Clapton rocks.

 

[The Paperboy]

The weighting thing is a stupid argument. Good pollsters have a weighting scheme based on how many of each party is in the population.

So if you poll 10 dems and 9 say they'll vote obama, and you poll 20 repubs and all say they'll vote mccain, you assume all repubs in the population vote mccain and 90% of dems vote obama. - and they come out roughly even.

It doesn't matter if you oversample one group or the other, you correct it before you put out the numebrs.

AND, it's the trends that are more important anyway. McCain shot up after Palin, that made sense. He is down since she started making a fool of her self. That also makes sense.

The only reason Obama is ahead right now is because the economy has dominated the headlines for the past 4 weeks. Otherwise the race is a dead heat or McCain is ahead. If the economy chills out for the next 20 days Obama could be in trouble. This is all just my opinion and not very important but I do think in the end it will be a very close election. And Obama better damn well hope that there isn't a terrorist attack or that Israel doesn't lob a bomb over to Iran. And of course that Rezko keeps quiet. Should be an interesting next 20 days.

 

[The Paperboy]

Eric Clapton rocks.

Been a fan for 30+ years.

 

[Silence]

that's interesting paperboy...

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

Gallup Daily: Obama 49%, McCain 43% NEW October 16, 2008
The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report from Monday through Wednesday shows Barack Obama with a 49%to 43% lead over John McCain among registered voters.

did I miss the part where you say just joking?

 

[jillian]

The only reason Obama is ahead right now is because the economy has dominated the headlines for the past 4 weeks. Otherwise the race is a dead heat or McCain is ahead. If the economy chills out for the next 20 days Obama could be in trouble. This is all just my opinion and not very important but I do think in the end it will be a very close election. And Obama better damn well hope that there isn't a terrorist attack or that Israel doesn't lob a bomb over to Iran. And of course that Rezko keeps quiet. Should be an interesting next 20 days.

But the economy IS dominating the headlines. And McCain's been found lacking on the subject. In case you haven't noticed, it's why McCain (and, by extension, the cheerleaders here) have been trying to change the subject to ACORN, to Ayers, to Michelle Obama, to Obama's half brother in Africa ... to anything that will stop kicking the bejesus out of McCain. The problem for you is the economy sucks and it sucks because it's the end result of failed economic policies you guys have been trying to push since Reagan.l

Do you want a terrorist attack? I know McCain's handlers would be breathing a sigh of relief.

 

[DiveCon]

The weighting thing is a stupid argument. Good pollsters have a weighting scheme based on how many of each party is in the population.

So if you poll 10 dems and 9 say they'll vote obama, and you poll 20 repubs and all say they'll vote mccain, you assume all repubs in the population vote mccain and 90% of dems vote obama. - and they come out roughly even.

It doesn't matter if you oversample one group or the other, you correct it before you put out the numebrs.

AND, it's the trends that are more important anyway. McCain shot up after Palin, that made sense. He is down since she started making a fool of her self. That also makes sense.

actually, it does matter on the sample rate
you watch, rasmussen at least publishes their sample rates
as it gets closer to the election, you watch that rate get different

 

[DiveCon]

that's interesting paperboy...

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx



did I miss the part where you say just joking?

scroll down

to where they talk about "likely voters"

 

[jillian]

scroll down

to where they talk about "likely voters"

But that model isn't necessarily appropriate here. We're talking about a very high participation race. Likely voters is just based on whether people voted in the last election. That doesn't account for newly registered voters or young people who look like they're going to be coming out in droves for Obama.

 

[The Paperboy]

scroll down

to where they talk about "likely voters"

But that would take him actually reading the whole article.

It's weird that Gallup has 3 or 4 different polls. Seems to me they don't know which model to go with.