Friday night dump- Goldman cuts forecast to 2% GDP for 2011.....

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Trajan, Jun 17, 2011.

  1. Trajan
    Offline

    Trajan conscientia mille testes

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2010
    Messages:
    29,048
    Thanks Received:
    4,751
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    The Bay Area Soviet
    Ratings:
    +4,756
    so....

    heres a quick look from cnbc;

    The firm cut its second-quarter GDP outlook to 2 percent from 3 percent, a stunning blow for an economy expected to be well on the path to recovery following the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009.

    News Headlines

    I prefer these guys for the outtake...;)

    Another Friday Night Dose Of Squid Humiliation: Goldman Lowers Q2 GDP From 3% to 2%

    It is Friday night, which means that any bad and self-discrediting news from Goldman Sachs are due any minute.

    Sure enough, the squid does not disappoint:

    "Following another dose of disappointing economic data, we have cut our Q2 growth estimate to 2% (annualized) from 3%. We also have issued a preliminary forecast for the manufacturing ISM in June of 52.0. At this point, we still expect a bounceback in Q3 and beyond, but will need to see significant improvement in the data over the next few weeks to maintain that view." Zero Hedge's own ISM outlook is for a 48 print. And as we will comment on later, as JPM's Michael Feroli demonstrates, the fate of the economic pick up in Q3 is all up to car sales surging by about 58% on an annualized basis as predicted by IHS. Good luck with that. As we said yesterday, we expect Goldman to lower its H2 outlook to under 2% within a month, most likely following the next ISM miss and the disappointing NFP report due out in 2 weeks.

    Full mea culpa, and we have at this point lost track how many in a row this is, from Goldman's economic team which has now lost all credibility.

    Sizing the Fed’s “Zone of Inaction”

    Following another dose of disappointing economic data, we have cut our Q2 growth estimate to 2% (annualized) from 3%. We also have issued a preliminary forecast for the manufacturing ISM in June of 52.0. At this point, we still expect a bounceback in Q3 and beyond, but will need to see significant improvement in the data over the next few weeks to maintain that view.

    The deterioration in economic activity, on its own, would call for fresh monetary easing. Meanwhile, however, inflation has continued to run above our (and the Fed’s) estimates. In the latest installment of bad news on this front, the CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.29% in May.

    The Federal Open Market Committee is therefore stuck between a rock (slow growth) and a hard place (higher inflation). We expect Chairman Bernanke to indicate at next Wednesday’s FOMC press conference that there is little prospect of either monetary tightening or monetary easing anytime soon.

    more at-

    Another Friday Night Dose Of Squid Humiliation: Goldman Lowers Q2 GDP From 3% to 2% | zero hedge
     
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2011
  2. Trajan
    Offline

    Trajan conscientia mille testes

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2010
    Messages:
    29,048
    Thanks Received:
    4,751
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    The Bay Area Soviet
    Ratings:
    +4,756
    excuse me, it should read Q2 gdp, I apologize.





    ....tell ya what though, I will take a stand on 2% for q3 too...
     
  3. B. Kidd
    Offline

    B. Kidd Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2010
    Messages:
    12,209
    Thanks Received:
    1,900
    Trophy Points:
    280
    Location:
    Western Lands
    Ratings:
    +6,890
    Q1 gdp was readjusted to 1.8.
    I'll take 1.8 for Q3.
     
  4. william the wie
    Offline

    william the wie Gold Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2009
    Messages:
    7,298
    Thanks Received:
    675
    Trophy Points:
    175
    Ratings:
    +1,614
    This number is likely to go negative.
     
  5. Baruch Menachem
    Offline

    Baruch Menachem '

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2008
    Messages:
    14,204
    Thanks Received:
    3,235
    Trophy Points:
    185
    Ratings:
    +3,305
    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuStsFW4EmQ"]Accentuate the positive[/ame]
     

Share This Page