Fraudulent polls trying to help Obama

Discussion in 'Politics' started by JustSomeGuy, Nov 4, 2012.

  1. JustSomeGuy
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    JustSomeGuy Active Member

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    Check out the newest Pew Poll. It has Obama up 3, 50 - 47, in a "D+4" sample , 36D/32R/29I (page 12). The problem? Not only does that only add up to 97, but that's not what their own sample says!

    On page 9 it has the party ID breakdown among likely voters. 843 respondents were Republicans, 1,007 were Democrats and 761 were Independents, for a total of 2,611 respondents.That means the real split of the poll is 38.5D/32.2R/29.1I, or something modeling the 2008 election.

    That means that right now, even if Obama gets 2008 type turnout, he would only win by 3. These people know that UNLESS Republicans stay home, Obama is gone! That's all these folks are trying to do now. They know Obama is HISTORY so they're throwing out fraudulent polls. Do NOT let them sway you. Vote like your country DEPENDS on it!* After this election I hope to God 90% of these frauds go down in flames.


    *Unless you're a Democrat. You can stay home.
     
  2. tooAlive
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    tooAlive Silver Member

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    Romney is winning this election.

    Vote fraud or not.
     
  3. Zoom
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    Zoom BANNED

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    Stfu
     
  4. Charles_Main
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    Charles_Main AR15 Owner

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    They are just laying the Ground work for their Legal Challenges and Cry's of "they stole the Election"
     
  5. OKTexas
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    OKTexas New Life Member of the NRA 12/15 Supporting Member

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    Only poll that counts comes on Tuesday.
     
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  6. Murf76
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    Murf76 Senior Member

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    What's interesting is that pollsters typically become a little more honest in those last couple of weeks before the election. Nobody wants to be the goat at the bottom of the list with their stats way off. I don't think that's necessarily the case this year though. That said, in terms of the above only adding up to 97... don't forget that there are some third party voters picking at the margins.
     
  7. Vanquish
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    Vanquish Vanquisher of shills

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    The FiveThirtyEight forecast model uses a more sophisticated method to estimate the chance of a polling miss.

    For instance, it looks at how much the polls have historically missed the final margin in the election, rather than simply whethe
    r they called the winner correctly.


    Popular Vote
    Obama
    50.6%
    +0.3 since Oct. 27

    Romney
    48.3%
    -0.4 since Oct. 27

    Chance of
    Winning

    Obama
    85.1%
    +11.5 since Oct. 27

    Romney
    14.9%
    -11.5 since Oct. 27

    Electoral Vote

    Obama
    306.9
    +11.4 since Oct. 27

    Romney
    231.1
    -11.4 since Oct. 27

    Nov. 3: Romney's Reason to Play for Pennsylvania - NYTimes.com

    77 out of 74 states since 1998 fall in line with the correct prediction. Now this model is predicting Obama. Sorry, Republicans. Romney's out.
     
  8. Lakhota
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    Lakhota Diamond Member

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    It appears Obama has this election locked up.
     
  9. candycorn
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    candycorn Alis volat propriis

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    [​IMG]
     

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