Forget What You’ve Heard: Republicans Have the Demographic Edge for 2016

[longknife]

IF this is true, it might be very bad news for the Dimbocraps at ALL levels. I don't know who the author is but he seems to make a lot of sense. According to him, it's a case of getting more white to actually get off their duffs and vote,



After 8 years of Obama, I don't see that as a problem.



Read more @ http://pjmedia.com/blog/forget-what-youve-heard-republicans-have-the-demographic-edge-for-2016/

 

[Nyvin]

The article boils down to:

"Forget about minorities!! Just get more white people to vote for us!!"

and

"Black people only voted for Obama, they won't vote that way again in 2016!"

What's a little awkward is that they assume the Black vote will return to 2004 levels but the white vote will remain at 2012 levels or even improve for the GOP.

The GOP relying on more and more of the white vote is a dying strategy regardless anyway. In 2016 whites will probably make up ~69-70% of the vote in the general, so to win a majority they would need 67% of the white vote.....in 2020 they'll make up ~67-68% so they need to win 69% of the white vote, 2024 will be ~65-66% so they'll need 71% etc etc etc. It's not feasible in the long run.

Not to mention at some point or another the GOP will hit a ceiling with whites that will flat out NEVER vote Republican (think Vermont types...) while the minority vote just keeps growing and growing.

 

[longknife]

I think the actual turnout is going to surprise a lot of pundits.

Far more middle Americans of ALL races will turn out to vote for GOP and Independent candidates at all levels. A lot of professional politicians will be seeking new jobs.

As for the black vote, do you think they would really turn out for any of the Democrat candidates? Nope. They'll stay home - unless they're given $$$ and bused to the polls.

 

[TheOldSchool]

The gay marriage ruling could be a huge boost to the GOP. Now that that's off the table, the widespread religious bigotry republicans engage in won't be as visible as it used to be, and more people will join the party.

 

[Nyvin]

I think the actual turnout is going to surprise a lot of pundits.

Far more middle Americans of ALL races will turn out to vote for GOP and Independent candidates at all levels. A lot of professional politicians will be seeking new jobs.

As for the black vote, do you think they would really turn out for any of the Democrat candidates? Nope. They'll stay home - unless they're given $$$ and bused to the polls.

You think or hope?

 

[jwoodie]

The article boils down to:

"Forget about minorities!! Just get more white people to vote for us!!"

and

"Black people only voted for Obama, they won't vote that way again in 2016!"

What's a little awkward is that they assume the Black vote will return to 2004 levels but the white vote will remain at 2012 levels or even improve for the GOP.

The GOP relying on more and more of the white vote is a dying strategy regardless anyway. In 2016 whites will probably make up ~69-70% of the vote in the general, so to win a majority they would need 67% of the white vote.....in 2020 they'll make up ~67-68% so they need to win 69% of the white vote, 2024 will be ~65-66% so they'll need 71% etc etc etc. It's not feasible in the long run.

Not to mention at some point or another the GOP will hit a ceiling with whites that will flat out NEVER vote Republican (think Vermont types...) while the minority vote just keeps growing and growing.

Will Vermont types vote to bail out Illinois and California with their own money? We'll see...

 

[Nyvin]

The article boils down to:

"Forget about minorities!! Just get more white people to vote for us!!"

and

"Black people only voted for Obama, they won't vote that way again in 2016!"

What's a little awkward is that they assume the Black vote will return to 2004 levels but the white vote will remain at 2012 levels or even improve for the GOP.

The GOP relying on more and more of the white vote is a dying strategy regardless anyway. In 2016 whites will probably make up ~69-70% of the vote in the general, so to win a majority they would need 67% of the white vote.....in 2020 they'll make up ~67-68% so they need to win 69% of the white vote, 2024 will be ~65-66% so they'll need 71% etc etc etc. It's not feasible in the long run.

Not to mention at some point or another the GOP will hit a ceiling with whites that will flat out NEVER vote Republican (think Vermont types...) while the minority vote just keeps growing and growing.

Will Vermont types vote to bail out Illinois and California with their own money? We'll see...

Wtf are you talking about?

 

[guno]

The repubs will get the cross groveling cracker vote in the south but nowhere else , not in the educated parts of the country as we saw in 2008 and 2012

 

[Manonthestreet]

Trump is pulling 25% of black and significant portion of latino....meanwhile dem candidates appeal to no one but dems

 

[Nyvin]

Trump is pulling 25% of black and significant portion of latino....meanwhile dem candidates appeal to no one but dems

Source?

 

[Manonthestreet]

LMMAOOOOO eternal cry for a link that they then ignore

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Trump is pulling 25% of black and significant portion of latino....meanwhile dem candidates appeal to no one but dems

He is doing no such thing whatsoever.

 

[Nyvin]

LMMAOOOOO eternal cry for a link that they then ignore

Umm, could you at least post a link then?

 

[Manonthestreet]

Trump is pulling 25% of black and significant portion of latino....meanwhile dem candidates appeal to no one but dems

He is doing no such thing whatsoever.

Yes....yes he is.......which is why he is leading Hilly

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Trump is pulling 25% of black and significant portion of latino....meanwhile dem candidates appeal to no one but dems

He is doing no such thing whatsoever.

Yes....yes he is.......which is why he is leading Hilly

So let's see the data

 

[Old Rocks]

I think the actual turnout is going to surprise a lot of pundits.

Far more middle Americans of ALL races will turn out to vote for GOP and Independent candidates at all levels. A lot of professional politicians will be seeking new jobs.

As for the black vote, do you think they would really turn out for any of the Democrat candidates? Nope. They'll stay home - unless they're given $$$ and bused to the polls.

Well, Longknife, this reminds me of the unskewed polls in 2012. As for your characterization of black voters, keep it up. I am sure that will impress them and encourage them to vote for GOP candidates.

 

[candycorn]

IF this is true,

Nothing you post is so why ask?

The Democrats need only 40 or so electoral votes to sew up the Presidency. Trump is making sure they get them.

 

[Old Rocks]

The problem for the GOP today is that the only unified message that they are sending out is completely negative. No plans as to how to improve the lot of most Americans, only contempt for certain colors and classes of Americans. That is not the way to win elections.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

"It is far easier for Republicans to win by increasing their support among white voters, and getting more whites to actually vote in 2016. Sixty percent of whites voted for Romney and the white turnout was only 64 percent in 2012. If the GOP picks up 64 percent of the white vote in 2016, and 66 percent of whites turn out to vote (as they did in 2008), the Republican candidate wins in a landslide."

This is as delusional as it is wrong and ridiculous.

 

[ScienceRocks]

The problem for the GOP today is that the only unified message that they are sending out is completely negative. No plans as to how to improve the lot of most Americans, only contempt for certain colors and classes of Americans. That is not the way to win elections.

Ontop of this they want to cut everything and tell the poor to go fuck themselves. No, not a very good way to win.

Best science institutions on earth? Get rid of them!
Infrastructure investment? Defund it and make little joe in his small community fund it all!
Education? Make it only for the rich!
etc...

Sucks.