Florida Primary: Who You Got?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by paulitician, Jan 31, 2012.

?

Florida Primary: Who You Got?

Poll closed Feb 1, 2012.
  1. Newt Gingrich

    15.6%
  2. Ron Paul

    25.0%
  3. Mitt Romney

    53.1%
  4. Rick Santorum

    6.3%
  1. paulitician
    Offline

    paulitician Platinum Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2011
    Messages:
    38,401
    Thanks Received:
    4,136
    Trophy Points:
    1,130
    Ratings:
    +11,972
    USMB/Florida Polls are now open. Vote for who you support or who you think will win. Either way is fine. Thanks.
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2012
  2. DiamondDave
    Offline

    DiamondDave Army Vet

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2008
    Messages:
    18,169
    Thanks Received:
    2,812
    Trophy Points:
    183
    Location:
    MD, on the Potomac River
    Ratings:
    +2,816
    On who we support or who will win?? I'm assuming who will win is the basis of your poll

    I think Romney squeaks it out over Newt in this one... with Paul a distant 3rd on his way to thankfully dropping out... and Santorum barely visible
     
  3. DiamondDave
    Offline

    DiamondDave Army Vet

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2008
    Messages:
    18,169
    Thanks Received:
    2,812
    Trophy Points:
    183
    Location:
    MD, on the Potomac River
    Ratings:
    +2,816
    You know you're a nutter when you think Paul is going to win the FLA primary...
     
  4. uscitizen
    Offline

    uscitizen Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 6, 2007
    Messages:
    45,941
    Thanks Received:
    4,791
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    My Shack
    Ratings:
    +4,807
    Jon Stewart.
     
  5. Dr.Traveler
    Online

    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2009
    Messages:
    3,927
    Thanks Received:
    650
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Location:
    In a Non-Euclidean Manifold
    Ratings:
    +1,049
    It's looking like Romney is going to win. The big question is what is the margin. If Romney wins over Newt by a margin larger than what Santorum got, then the game is up.

    The only hope that there was of stopping Romney is for either Newt or Santorum to drop out and consolidate, though the longer this goes on the less likely that Santorum's nomination would move his crowd behind Newt. If we're at the point that Romney has a bigger base of support than the two combined, then Romney wins the nomination. Romney has a huge $$$$ advantage, and it's hard to peel votes off his base.

    Paul will stay in. Even if he drops out, it wouldn't help anyone. Paul's supporters aren't going to line up behind Newt or Romney. Most will go third party if he drops right now. The longer Paul stays in, the more of Paul's base you get to keep in the GOP fold.
     
  6. paulitician
    Offline

    paulitician Platinum Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2011
    Messages:
    38,401
    Thanks Received:
    4,136
    Trophy Points:
    1,130
    Ratings:
    +11,972
    Romney by a hair. But it's early. :)
     
  7. Dr.Traveler
    Online

    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2009
    Messages:
    3,927
    Thanks Received:
    650
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Location:
    In a Non-Euclidean Manifold
    Ratings:
    +1,049
    The RCP average is Romney by about 15 points, which means that even if Santorum and Gingrich teamed up, they'd at best tie Romney. If that bears out, the game is up. The next few states coming up are all Romney friendly, which means he'll have a monstrous amount of momentum to back up the $$$$ he already has.
     
  8. Big Black Dog
    Offline

    Big Black Dog Gold Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2009
    Messages:
    22,907
    Thanks Received:
    5,107
    Trophy Points:
    260
    Ratings:
    +5,703
    As much as I would like to see Newt win, I'm pretty sure that Romney will win in Florida. Maybe I will be surprised but I don't think so.
     
  9. Dr.Traveler
    Online

    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2009
    Messages:
    3,927
    Thanks Received:
    650
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Location:
    In a Non-Euclidean Manifold
    Ratings:
    +1,049
    I've thought a couple of times that Newt had the nomination sewn up, only to see him lose it again and again. It's looking like its just not to be this time for him.

    He'll likely lose Florida and a LOT of momentum. If he can line up some serious cash donors he may be able to hold out to Super Tuesday and snake a win out from underneath Romney from there, but it's looking like a longer and longer shot.
     
  10. paulitician
    Offline

    paulitician Platinum Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2011
    Messages:
    38,401
    Thanks Received:
    4,136
    Trophy Points:
    1,130
    Ratings:
    +11,972
    Romney pulling ahead. Plenty of time though.
     

Share This Page