bripat9643
Diamond Member
- Apr 1, 2011
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Flashback: Rasmussen Most Accurate Pollster in 2008
In July, I started to notice something funky about the media polls. Almost all of them were using polling samples that assumed a dramatic increase in Democrat turnout over 2008. Even though the liberal group Third Way had found that Democrats lost around 1 million voters in 8 battleground states, media polls were implying an even bigger Democrat wave this year. It doesn't make sense.
<snip>
A look at other media polls' performance in 08 is especially illuminating, given the current questions surrounding their polls.
NBC/WSJ C
Marist D
ABC/WaP0 D+
Gallup D
CBS/NYT D-
Reuters F
So, if these polls were so off-the-mark in 2008, why should I pay attention to them now? It isn't surprising that the worst-performing polls from '08 all show Obama with a comfortable lead. The best-performing poll from 08 shows the race tied.
Forum copyright policy, to be found HERE, prohibits posting of pieces in their entirety.
~Oddball
In July, I started to notice something funky about the media polls. Almost all of them were using polling samples that assumed a dramatic increase in Democrat turnout over 2008. Even though the liberal group Third Way had found that Democrats lost around 1 million voters in 8 battleground states, media polls were implying an even bigger Democrat wave this year. It doesn't make sense.
<snip>
A look at other media polls' performance in 08 is especially illuminating, given the current questions surrounding their polls.
NBC/WSJ C
Marist D
ABC/WaP0 D+
Gallup D
CBS/NYT D-
Reuters F
So, if these polls were so off-the-mark in 2008, why should I pay attention to them now? It isn't surprising that the worst-performing polls from '08 all show Obama with a comfortable lead. The best-performing poll from 08 shows the race tied.
Forum copyright policy, to be found HERE, prohibits posting of pieces in their entirety.
~Oddball