Flashback: Rasmussen Most Accurate Pollster in 2008

Discussion in 'Politics' started by bripat9643, Sep 28, 2012.

  1. bripat9643
    Offline

    bripat9643 Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2011
    Messages:
    67,936
    Thanks Received:
    8,100
    Trophy Points:
    2,030
    Ratings:
    +27,463
    Flashback: Rasmussen Most Accurate Pollster in 2008

    In July, I started to notice something funky about the media polls. Almost all of them were using polling samples that assumed a dramatic increase in Democrat turnout over 2008. Even though the liberal group Third Way had found that Democrats lost around 1 million voters in 8 battleground states, media polls were implying an even bigger Democrat wave this year. It doesn't make sense.


    <snip>

    A look at other media polls' performance in 08 is especially illuminating, given the current questions surrounding their polls.

    NBC/WSJ C
    Marist D
    ABC/WaP0 D+
    Gallup D
    CBS/NYT D-
    Reuters F

    So, if these polls were so off-the-mark in 2008, why should I pay attention to them now? It isn't surprising that the worst-performing polls from '08 all show Obama with a comfortable lead. The best-performing poll from 08 shows the race tied.

    Forum copyright policy, to be found HERE, prohibits posting of pieces in their entirety.

    ~Oddball
     
  2. del
    Offline

    del BANNED

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2008
    Messages:
    45,052
    Thanks Received:
    9,830
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings:
    +9,885
    bripat deals with romney's imminent loss

    [​IMG]
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 2
  3. RDD_1210
    Offline

    RDD_1210 Forms his own opinions

    Joined:
    May 13, 2010
    Messages:
    14,699
    Thanks Received:
    1,298
    Trophy Points:
    205
    Ratings:
    +2,018
  4. Jarhead
    Offline

    Jarhead Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2010
    Messages:
    20,554
    Thanks Received:
    2,348
    Trophy Points:
    245
    Ratings:
    +3,286
    Obama IS leading....

    No one is denying that.

    But leading by 10 points?

    I highly doubt it.
     
  5. MarcATL
    Offline

    MarcATL Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2009
    Messages:
    15,360
    Thanks Received:
    2,360
    Trophy Points:
    245
    Ratings:
    +3,755
    :clap2: :clap2: :clap2:
     
  6. Misty
    Offline

    Misty Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2009
    Messages:
    7,137
    Thanks Received:
    1,897
    Trophy Points:
    245
    Ratings:
    +3,308
    I remember when the exit polls had Kerry winning and liberals were already celebrating but in the end Bush won that election.

    The only poll that really counts is the one in November.

    Romney does need to step up his game though. He has 2 big disadvantages.

    1. The media
    2. Obama is an incumbent.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  7. RDD_1210
    Offline

    RDD_1210 Forms his own opinions

    Joined:
    May 13, 2010
    Messages:
    14,699
    Thanks Received:
    1,298
    Trophy Points:
    205
    Ratings:
    +2,018
    You should try reading the forums some time. You'd swear Romney was ahead according to some people on this site.
     
  8. Rambunctious
    Offline

    Rambunctious Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2010
    Messages:
    4,608
    Thanks Received:
    816
    Trophy Points:
    245
    Ratings:
    +2,980
    Romney has the independents 49 - 21 largest percentage of independents supporting a Republican since Reagan...don't count those chickens yet. 1st debate next week, whats Obama goning to say? ahhh ahhh I killed Bin Ladin...and ahhh ahhh you didn't...
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  9. LoneLaugher
    Offline

    LoneLaugher Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2011
    Messages:
    45,674
    Thanks Received:
    6,459
    Trophy Points:
    1,840
    Location:
    Inside Mac's Head
    Ratings:
    +18,469
    Please prove that the media is a disadvantage for Romney. You know how to prove something, don't you? It is what you are asked to do when you make a bullshit claim.
     
  10. nodoginnafight
    Offline

    nodoginnafight No Party Affiliation

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2008
    Messages:
    11,755
    Thanks Received:
    1,069
    Trophy Points:
    175
    Location:
    Georgia
    Ratings:
    +1,497
    A nonpartisan statistical approach to Rasmussen data

    In 2008 Rassmussen ranked 6th in national election polling. In the 2008 state polls, they sucked big time. In 2010 they lost all credibility.

    It would be impossible for a good polling organization to over-estimate support for a Republican senate candidate by 40 POINTS
     

Share This Page