Flashback: Rasmussen Most Accurate Pollster in 2008

[bripat9643]

Flashback: Rasmussen Most Accurate Pollster in 2008

In July, I started to notice something funky about the media polls. Almost all of them were using polling samples that assumed a dramatic increase in Democrat turnout over 2008. Even though the liberal group Third Way had found that Democrats lost around 1 million voters in 8 battleground states, media polls were implying an even bigger Democrat wave this year. It doesn't make sense.


<snip>

A look at other media polls' performance in 08 is especially illuminating, given the current questions surrounding their polls.

NBC/WSJ C
Marist D
ABC/WaP0 D+
Gallup D
CBS/NYT D-
Reuters F

So, if these polls were so off-the-mark in 2008, why should I pay attention to them now? It isn't surprising that the worst-performing polls from '08 all show Obama with a comfortable lead. The best-performing poll from 08 shows the race tied.

Forum copyright policy, to be found HERE, prohibits posting of pieces in their entirety.

~Oddball

 

[del]

bripat deals with romney's imminent loss

 

[RDD_1210]

So Rasmussen should be trusted you say?

Ok, then I guess you agree that Obama is leading, since that's what Rasmussen is reporting in terms of the electoral college.

2012 Electoral College Scoreboard - Rasmussen Reports™

 

[Jarhead]

So Rasmussen should be trusted you say?

Ok, then I guess you agree that Obama is leading, since that's what Rasmussen is reporting in terms of the electoral college.

2012 Electoral College Scoreboard - Rasmussen Reports™

Obama IS leading....

No one is denying that.

But leading by 10 points?

I highly doubt it.

 

[MarcATL]

bripat deals with romney's imminent loss

So Rasmussen should be trusted you say?

Ok, then I guess you agree that Obama is leading, since that's what Rasmussen is reporting in terms of the electoral college.

2012 Electoral College Scoreboard - Rasmussen Reports™

 

[Misty]

I remember when the exit polls had Kerry winning and liberals were already celebrating but in the end Bush won that election.

The only poll that really counts is the one in November.

Romney does need to step up his game though. He has 2 big disadvantages.

1. The media
2. Obama is an incumbent.

 

[RDD_1210]

So Rasmussen should be trusted you say?

Ok, then I guess you agree that Obama is leading, since that's what Rasmussen is reporting in terms of the electoral college.

2012 Electoral College Scoreboard - Rasmussen Reports™

Obama IS leading....

No one is denying that.

But leading by 10 points?

I highly doubt it.

You should try reading the forums some time. You'd swear Romney was ahead according to some people on this site.

 

[Rambunctious]

Romney has the independents 49 - 21 largest percentage of independents supporting a Republican since Reagan...don't count those chickens yet. 1st debate next week, whats Obama goning to say? ahhh ahhh I killed Bin Ladin...and ahhh ahhh you didn't...

 

[LoneLaugher]

I remember when the exit polls had Kerry winning and liberals were already celebrating but in the end Bush won that election.

The only poll that really counts is the one in November.

Romney does need to step up his game though. He has 2 big disadvantages.

1. The media
2. Obama is an incumbent.

Please prove that the media is a disadvantage for Romney. You know how to prove something, don't you? It is what you are asked to do when you make a bullshit claim.

 

[nodoginnafight]

A nonpartisan statistical approach to Rasmussen data

In 2008 Rassmussen ranked 6th in national election polling. In the 2008 state polls, they sucked big time. In 2010 they lost all credibility.

It would be impossible for a good polling organization to over-estimate support for a Republican senate candidate by 40 POINTS

 

[mascale]

Actually, in the final results that are shown in the link, all the polls were right on the money. The differences are not that much. What likely makes Rasmussen so "consistent" in the results is that probably Republicans had all so "no," way before the Democrats were about to say "yes!"

Anyone might guess that just like before: Republicans are generally saying "no," and even before Democrats are generally saying, "yes!" That is actually not unusual. Since it is happening this year and without any major disaster, other than the drought, impacting anything: Then that is why the current polls are all worth noting. Rasmussen has Romney down and Obama up, even: This year, today.

Poll Off by

Rasmussen Reports 0.5
Pew 0.5
GWU/Battleground 0.5
Ipsos/McClatchy 0.5
CNN/Opinion Research 0.5
Fox News 0.5
Diageo/Hotline 1.5
NBC News / Wall St. Journal
1.5
Gallup Traditional 1.5
IBD/TIPP 1.5
Marist 2.5
ABC News / Wash 2.5
Gallup Expanded 2.5
CBS News / NYT 2.5
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 4.5

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Chief Crazy Horse Bar at Little Big Horn--maybe show more consistently inconsistent results: If only there was one(?)!)

 

[NYcarbineer]

Flashback: Rasmussen Most Accurate Pollster in 2008

In July, I started to notice something funky about the media polls. Almost all of them were using polling samples that assumed a dramatic increase in Democrat turnout over 2008. Even though the liberal group Third Way had found that Democrats lost around 1 million voters in 8 battleground states, media polls were implying an even bigger Democrat wave this year. It doesn't make sense.


<snip>

A look at other media polls' performance in 08 is especially illuminating, given the current questions surrounding their polls.

NBC/WSJ C
Marist D
ABC/WaP0 D+
Gallup D
CBS/NYT D-
Reuters F

So, if these polls were so off-the-mark in 2008, why should I pay attention to them now? It isn't surprising that the worst-performing polls from '08 all show Obama with a comfortable lead. The best-performing poll from 08 shows the race tied.

Forum copyright policy, to be found HERE, prohibits posting of pieces in their entirety.

~Oddball

Actually almost none of them are using Democrat turnout percentages bigger than 2008.

 

[Jarhead]

So Rasmussen should be trusted you say?

Ok, then I guess you agree that Obama is leading, since that's what Rasmussen is reporting in terms of the electoral college.

2012 Electoral College Scoreboard - Rasmussen Reports™

Obama IS leading....

No one is denying that.

But leading by 10 points?

I highly doubt it.

You should try reading the forums some time. You'd swear Romney was ahead according to some people on this site.

I dont poay attention to Bullshit.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Rasmussen was the worst pollster in 2000. Called it for Bush by 9 points!!!! LOLOLOL

 

[NYcarbineer]

Romney has the independents 49 - 21 largest percentage of independents supporting a Republican since Reagan...don't count those chickens yet. 1st debate next week, whats Obama goning to say? ahhh ahhh I killed Bin Ladin...and ahhh ahhh you didn't...

The latest Foxnews poll has Obama winning independents by 4 points.

 

[NYcarbineer]

So Rasmussen should be trusted you say?

Ok, then I guess you agree that Obama is leading, since that's what Rasmussen is reporting in terms of the electoral college.

2012 Electoral College Scoreboard - Rasmussen Reports™

Obama IS leading....

No one is denying that.

But leading by 10 points?

I highly doubt it.

Gee, maybe that's 9 points off. Maybe Obama wins by 1.

 

[Jarhead]

I remember when the exit polls had Kerry winning and liberals were already celebrating but in the end Bush won that election.

The only poll that really counts is the one in November.

Romney does need to step up his game though. He has 2 big disadvantages.

1. The media
2. Obama is an incumbent.

Please prove that the media is a disadvantage for Romney. You know how to prove something, don't you? It is what you are asked to do when you make a bullshit claim.

well...lets see....

The BIG story was how Romney "jumped the gun" when he siad the assault on the consulate was an act of terrorism.

Yet Romney was right.

Now we find out that Obama JUMPED the gun when he said it was a protest gone bad.

And I cant find it anywhere on the news.

SO both jumped the gun....Romney ended up being right; Obama ended up being wrong....yet Romney jumping the gun is the story.

 

[Jarhead]

So Rasmussen should be trusted you say?

Ok, then I guess you agree that Obama is leading, since that's what Rasmussen is reporting in terms of the electoral college.

2012 Electoral College Scoreboard - Rasmussen Reports™

Obama IS leading....

No one is denying that.

But leading by 10 points?

I highly doubt it.

Gee, maybe that's 9 points off. Maybe Obama wins by 1.

Maybe.

 

[NYcarbineer]

All the polls have Obama ahead if the election were held today.

When have this many polls been unanimously wrong?

 

[RDD_1210]

Obama IS leading....

No one is denying that.

But leading by 10 points?

I highly doubt it.

You should try reading the forums some time. You'd swear Romney was ahead according to some people on this site.

I dont poay attention to Bullshit.

Well, if you did, you'd know that people are in fact denying that Obama is leading.

I wouldn't be surprised if the OP is one of them.