Five Thrity Eight Polling Data & Projections

[courseofhistory]

People should read this site and see how many of the polls are considered and projections are made. It is very involved and has been quite accurate in the past.

Some of the more important information is listed near the bottom of the page on the right hand side under state by state projections. In almost every case, Obama holds a significant lead over Romney in chance of winning projections and in most other areas.

Colorado (as one example listed)

FiveThirtyEight Projections

Dem Rep Margin

46.8 45.6 +1.2

bama +1.2



Adjusted polling average

48.5

44.8

Obama +3.7



State fundamentals

48.7

44.6

Obama +4.1



Now-cast

48.6

44.8

Obama +3.8

Projected vote share±5.8

51.4

47.4

Obama +4.0

Chance of winning

76% Obama Romney 24%

 

[Conservative]

Thrity???

 

[Chris]

Nate is predicting that Obama will be around 314 electoral votes.

The hundreds of millions of Koch brothers dollars spent, all the voter suppression, all the lies the Republicans told, will all be in vain.

 

[Listening]

Oh look...

Another liberal post-orgasmic poll thread.

The bounce is already fading.

The swing states are tightening.

Obama is going to get his ass handed to him over Lybia/Egypt.

You should quit campaigning and go home.

 

[courseofhistory]

I watch this and other sites (mostly the swing state pollls and projections) daily and so far the trend is in favor of Obama. it hasn't changed much on Five Thrity Eight or the others I watch much in the last 6-8 weeks.

At the moment on page one of the site, Obama has a 91.6% chance of winning which is the highest it has been since I've been watching (nowcast). The Nov. 6 forecast is 80.8% for Obama which is about the same as it has been for quite a while.

 

[Chris]

The candidate leading the polls the last two weeks of September has won 15 of the last 15 presidential elections.

 

[courseofhistory]

Oh look...

Another liberal post-orgasmic poll thread.

The bounce is already fading.

The swing states are tightening.

Obama is going to get his ass handed to him over Lybia/Egypt.

You should quit campaigning and go home.

The country generally rallies behind the president in times of crisis such as this and I don't think people are going to want to elect someone like Romney, especially, the foreign policy gaffe champion, in the middle of a crisis.

 

[Chris]

Romney couldn't even visit the Olympics without insulting our closest ally.

 

[Listening]

Oh look...

Another liberal post-orgasmic poll thread.

The bounce is already fading.

The swing states are tightening.

Obama is going to get his ass handed to him over Lybia/Egypt.

You should quit campaigning and go home.

The country generally rallies behind the president in times of crisis such as this and I don't think people are going to want to elect someone like Romney, especially, the foreign policy gaffe champion, in the middle of a crisis.

I think the words "I don't think" describe you pretty well.

Nobody really cares what you "think" (and I highly doubt you do).

 

[Listening]

Romney couldn't even visit the Olympics without insulting our closest ally.

Yeah, being right about them insults them.

Do you really live in that kind of stupid world ?

Obama just got an ambassador killed. Why don't we ask his family how that's working out for him.

 

[Chris]

Nate Silver is one of the best in the business.

 

[courseofhistory]

Voters trust President Obama over Mitt Romney on foreign policy, according to a new poll quoted by Business Insider.

When it comes to terrorism and international affairs, the poll finds that the POTUS is leading Romney by 11 and 13 points, respectively. The factoid indicates a recent public turnaround on security issues on which Republicans have long enjoyed a lead over Democrats, as Business Insider's Brett LoGiurato notes. Let LoGiurato elaborate:

This is new territory for a Democratic candidate. Not since Lyndon B. Johnson unveiled this famous "Daisy" ad to help sink Republican Barry Goldwater in 1964 has a Democrat had such a distinct foreign policy advantage. It's an edge that Obama will continue to employ heading into the final two months of the campaign.

 

[Listening]

Voters trust President Obama over Mitt Romney on foreign policy, according to a new poll quoted by Business Insider.

When it comes to terrorism and international affairs, the poll finds that the POTUS is leading Romney by 11 and 13 points, respectively. The factoid indicates a recent public turnaround on security issues on which Republicans have long enjoyed a lead over Democrats, as Business Insider's Brett LoGiurato notes. Let LoGiurato elaborate:

This is new territory for a Democratic candidate. Not since Lyndon B. Johnson unveiled this famous "Daisy" ad to help sink Republican Barry Goldwater in 1964 has a Democrat had such a distinct foreign policy advantage. It's an edge that Obama will continue to employ heading into the final two months of the campaign.

I am sure the Lybian ambassador trusted him too.

 

[Chris]

Romney and Ryan have ZERO foreign policy experience.

Except for Romney's money in Switzerland and the Caymans.

 

[Listening]

Romney and Ryan have ZERO foreign policy experience.

Except for Romney's money in Switzerland and the Caymans.

At least we can say Romney hasn't gotten anyone killed.

That will work for him come debate time.