Well it’s been a while since I did my last analysis. Let’s see where things stand using RCP. Currently we have Romney 206, Obama 201 in the electoral vote count. The following states are considered toss ups. Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10). In reality it’s a stretch to call some of those toss ups. As much as Republicans would like to dream about flipping Michigan and Pennsylvania…dream on guys. So let’s concede those states and call it Obama 237, Romney 201. The following is my prediction and polling analysis in order of confidence. At this point I am only going to focus on polling done after the second debate and I am ignoring media polls; they all ridiculously suck. I am also considering that historically undecided voters break for the challenger at about 60%. 1) Romney takes Florida: Obama 237, Romney 235; Confidence: 84% The current RCP average is R+2.1, but once you filter out the crap polls it’s R+2 (48.5/46.5) with about 5% undecided. It suggests a final outcome of roughly R 52, O 48. The trends are suggesting as well that the margin may actually increase but regardless, it’s clear that this state is Romney’s to lose. 2) Romney takes Virginia: Romney 248, Obama 237; Confidence: 75% Current RCP is a tie, but the only poll after the second debate is R+3. The trend is strong in Romney’s favor. There will have to be a pretty significant shift in the trends for Obama to take this state. 3) Obama takes Nevada: Romney 248, Obama 243; Confidence: 69% As much as it pains me…as much as I keep holding on for Nevada to come around…even though the polls are tightening in Nevada, I just don’t see it happening fast enough or to a large enough degree to suggest that Romney will re-take Nevada. Now there hasn’t been any polling since the second debate and unfortunately the majority of the polls listed on RCP as current are shit polls (PPP and media affiliated) so perhaps something will come through shortly to show a different result, but it aint looking good for Romney here. 4) Obama takes Wisconsin: Obama 253, Romney248; Confidence: 65% Current RCP is O+2.8. Only two polls since the last debate and one is Marist who is ridiculously, ludicrously biased and must be ignored. That leaves Rasmussen’s O+2 as the one to look at. The overall trend of course favors Romney but not by very much. Additionally, with only 2% undecided against a 2% spread….that’s not good news for team Romney. There is time for this to turn around but I am not terribly confident in it. 5) Romney takes Colorado: Romney 257, Obama 253; Confidence: 62% The news out of Colorado has been fantastic for Romney. Current RCP is R+0.2 with a strong Romney trend. The only post debate poll is a PPP poll which again must be ignored due to their extreme bias. Right now it’s a dead heat but the trend is such that it’s heading Romney’s way. I don’t see that trend changing barring a total catastrophe Monday night or a pretty extreme October surprise. 6) Romney takes New Hampshire: Romney 261, Obama 253; Confidence: 58% Romney has been trending very strong in New Hampshire since the debates started. Only one poll since the second debate; another PPP poll which is to be ignored. It could be argued that since even PPP, with their extreme Obama bias, has it R+1 it must suggest an even larger Romney lead. It’s a sound argument, but I am completely ignoring PPP so for me to accept that argument would indicate inconsistency. All I have to look at right now is the trend which is big in Romney’s favor. 7) Romney takes Ohio: Romney 279, Obama 253; Confidence: 56% Well, this is the big tamale, huh? If everything goes as I have said, then Ohio determines the winner and Iowa becomes irrelevant. As things stand now the RCP is O+2.6. But there have been only three polls of Ohio since the second debate and one (FoxNews) is a media poll and must be ignored. That leaves Rasmussen and Gravis for a 48/47.5 Obama advantage with 4.5% undecided. As the majority of undecided will break for the challenger this, and the trend lines, indicate that Romney will pull it out and take Ohio in a close battle. BUT…we must consider the Gary Johnson angle. Johnson polls very well in Ohio and he draws a lot of support from Romney. It’s conceivable that Johnson could steal enough Romney votes in the state to hand the White House back to Obama for four more years. 8) Romney takes Iowa: Romney 285, Obama 253; Confidence: 51% Honestly I really have no idea what is going to happen in Iowa. One minute I feel like Romney will take it and the other I feel like Obama will. One of the things really fucking up the RCP average is the Marist poll and unfortunately the only other poll is PPP. Since we are ignoring both of those polls, what we have is a pre-debate spread of Obama 48.6 to Romney’s 47 with 4.3% undecided. This really suggests Romney will take the state but in the absence of current legitimate polling I really have to toss up my hands and say…flip a coin.