The Phantom's Polling Analysis III

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by BluePhantom, Oct 20, 2012.

  1. BluePhantom
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    BluePhantom Educator (of liberals)

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    Well it’s been a while since I did my last analysis. Let’s see where things stand using RCP. Currently we have Romney 206, Obama 201 in the electoral vote count. The following states are considered toss ups. Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10). In reality it’s a stretch to call some of those toss ups.

    As much as Republicans would like to dream about flipping Michigan and Pennsylvania…dream on guys. So let’s concede those states and call it Obama 237, Romney 201. The following is my prediction and polling analysis in order of confidence. At this point I am only going to focus on polling done after the second debate and I am ignoring media polls; they all ridiculously suck. I am also considering that historically undecided voters break for the challenger at about 60%.

    1) Romney takes Florida: Obama 237, Romney 235; Confidence: 84%
    The current RCP average is R+2.1, but once you filter out the crap polls it’s R+2 (48.5/46.5) with about 5% undecided. It suggests a final outcome of roughly R 52, O 48. The trends are suggesting as well that the margin may actually increase but regardless, it’s clear that this state is Romney’s to lose.

    2) Romney takes Virginia: Romney 248, Obama 237; Confidence: 75%
    Current RCP is a tie, but the only poll after the second debate is R+3. The trend is strong in Romney’s favor. There will have to be a pretty significant shift in the trends for Obama to take this state.

    3) Obama takes Nevada: Romney 248, Obama 243; Confidence: 69%
    As much as it pains me…as much as I keep holding on for Nevada to come around…even though the polls are tightening in Nevada, I just don’t see it happening fast enough or to a large enough degree to suggest that Romney will re-take Nevada. Now there hasn’t been any polling since the second debate and unfortunately the majority of the polls listed on RCP as current are shit polls (PPP and media affiliated) so perhaps something will come through shortly to show a different result, but it aint looking good for Romney here.

    4) Obama takes Wisconsin: Obama 253, Romney248; Confidence: 65%
    Current RCP is O+2.8. Only two polls since the last debate and one is Marist who is ridiculously, ludicrously biased and must be ignored. That leaves Rasmussen’s O+2 as the one to look at. The overall trend of course favors Romney but not by very much. Additionally, with only 2% undecided against a 2% spread….that’s not good news for team Romney. There is time for this to turn around but I am not terribly confident in it.

    5) Romney takes Colorado: Romney 257, Obama 253; Confidence: 62%
    The news out of Colorado has been fantastic for Romney. Current RCP is R+0.2 with a strong Romney trend. The only post debate poll is a PPP poll which again must be ignored due to their extreme bias. Right now it’s a dead heat but the trend is such that it’s heading Romney’s way. I don’t see that trend changing barring a total catastrophe Monday night or a pretty extreme October surprise.

    6) Romney takes New Hampshire: Romney 261, Obama 253; Confidence: 58%
    Romney has been trending very strong in New Hampshire since the debates started. Only one poll since the second debate; another PPP poll which is to be ignored. It could be argued that since even PPP, with their extreme Obama bias, has it R+1 it must suggest an even larger Romney lead. It’s a sound argument, but I am completely ignoring PPP so for me to accept that argument would indicate inconsistency. All I have to look at right now is the trend which is big in Romney’s favor.

    7) Romney takes Ohio: Romney 279, Obama 253; Confidence: 56%
    Well, this is the big tamale, huh? If everything goes as I have said, then Ohio determines the winner and Iowa becomes irrelevant. As things stand now the RCP is O+2.6. But there have been only three polls of Ohio since the second debate and one (FoxNews) is a media poll and must be ignored. That leaves Rasmussen and Gravis for a 48/47.5 Obama advantage with 4.5% undecided. As the majority of undecided will break for the challenger this, and the trend lines, indicate that Romney will pull it out and take Ohio in a close battle. BUT…we must consider the Gary Johnson angle. Johnson polls very well in Ohio and he draws a lot of support from Romney. It’s conceivable that Johnson could steal enough Romney votes in the state to hand the White House back to Obama for four more years.

    8) Romney takes Iowa: Romney 285, Obama 253; Confidence: 51%
    Honestly I really have no idea what is going to happen in Iowa. One minute I feel like Romney will take it and the other I feel like Obama will. One of the things really fucking up the RCP average is the Marist poll and unfortunately the only other poll is PPP. Since we are ignoring both of those polls, what we have is a pre-debate spread of Obama 48.6 to Romney’s 47 with 4.3% undecided. This really suggests Romney will take the state but in the absence of current legitimate polling I really have to toss up my hands and say…flip a coin.
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2012
  2. BluePhantom
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    BluePhantom Educator (of liberals)

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    Just one final note here. There are really four states at this point that are of ciritical importance. Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada. If you take everything I wrote below and remove those four states it leaves three paths to victory for Romney. In order of likelihood they are:

    1) Romney takes Ohio
    2) Romney takes Wisconsin
    3) Romney takes Nevada and Iowa

    Obama has two paths to victory. In order of likelihood they are:

    1) Obama takes Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada
    2) Obama takes Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa

    Obviously Romney's path is easier
     
  3. jillian
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    jillian Princess Supporting Member

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    I agree with you through number 4.

    I disagree about colorado... sort of. even right leaning rasmussen has obama ahead. PPP has obama ahead by 3 ... i know you're thinking in terms of trend lines and mostly i think colorado depends on whether the bleeding from the first debate has been fully stopped and what happens in tomorrow's polls which will be the first that are fully reflective of tuesday's debates.

    I agree with you about new hampshire.

    i think you're off base about iowa. every poll has the president ahead in iowa except for one. .. and that's ppp.

    i think romney has more limited ways to 270 than the president.

    but i think we both agree romney can't win without ohio...

    so .. as of right now... the president is holding on to it...

    but... if you look at this snapshot from RCP, it seems that whatever post-debate1 bleeding there was in ohio has stopped. and none of the recent polls show romney ahead there. the only one that still does is ARG which was taken right after debate 1.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

    the RCP average also has the president ahead in general election numbers again... which wasn't the case post debate bleed.

    so there ya go.
     
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    Last edited: Oct 21, 2012
  4. BluePhantom
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    BluePhantom Educator (of liberals)

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    PPP is incredibly biased Jillian. Rasmussen has a 1-2 point GOP bias. PPP has a 4-5 point Democrat bias. Come on Jillian you know that. I agree that once you throw PPP out the window we have nothing to evaluate that is after the second debate. What we need is a professional pollster who has already taken a previous poll just before that debate so we can compare the before and after. What we don't need are media polls, Marist polls, or PPP polls. However, if we want to consider PPP at all (which I dont) I would point out that their previous poll of 9/23 showed a O+6 spread and after two debates it's now O+3. We can make the argument that according to PPP the debates have resulted in a 3 point shift and then apply that to the RCP average prior to the first debate....while that would result in a stronger Romney lead (which would support my biases) I don't think that's a fair or reasonable argument to make with any degree of confidence. I am ignoring PPP for a reason....they fucking suck and they are incredibly biased. Best just to ignore them completely.
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2012
  5. jillian
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    i don't know about ppp... they're the only poll that has romney ahead in iowa is pop. every other poll has the president ahead. so are they biased? maybe... but that isn't the only poll taken into consideration in the RCP average... which is why i like relying on the averages...it seems that in doing so, we get rid of most of the partisan noise in the polls.

    so you hate ppp and want to ignore them? that makes iowa a given for the president? yes?:eusa_whistle:

    off now...will check back later. :)
     
  6. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Gold Member

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    Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder


    Well...........these guys have called anywhere between 45 and 48 states in every election for the past 9. 100% success rate.

    These guys would have to be waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off on their historical accuracy for the president to even get to 250 electoral votes. They have Obama with 206. Historically, if you are an incumbent with a stinky economy, you get your ass handed to you.
     
  7. swizzlee
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    swizzlee RedWhiteAndBlue

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    Did you take into account...........

    Iacocca's endorsement on MI and PA??

    In PA where the race is O+4, his endorsement may carry a lot of weight.
     
  8. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Gold Member

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    Not going to matter that much............just like Newspaper endorsements dont mean shit anymore.


    But in Pennsylvania, they see a president fucking with their coal. Except for Philly and Pittsburgh, Obama is going to get decimated in Pennsylvania.
     
  9. The Rabbi
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    The Rabbi Diamond Member

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    Doesn't Nevada have a large Mormon population? Aren't those people going to turn out for Romney like blacks for Obama?
    Lots can happen, almost all of it bad for Obama, before Election Day. If the stock market melts down it will be a blow out.
     
  10. BluePhantom
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    BluePhantom Educator (of liberals)

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    Yeah it does, but what makes Nevada so close is that Las Vegas is liberal and the rest of the state is Republican. The populations essentially equal each other out and it comes down to Reno to flip the state one way or the other. Reno is a "city" but a very small city so it's right on the edge between being liberal and Republican. Yeah Nevada has a large Mormon population, but Vegas overpowers them.
     

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