Five Thrity Eight Polling Data & Projections

Discussion in 'Politics' started by courseofhistory, Sep 12, 2012.

  1. courseofhistory
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    courseofhistory BANNED

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    People should read this site and see how many of the polls are considered and projections are made. It is very involved and has been quite accurate in the past.

    Some of the more important information is listed near the bottom of the page on the right hand side under state by state projections. In almost every case, Obama holds a significant lead over Romney in chance of winning projections and in most other areas.

    Colorado (as one example listed)

    FiveThirtyEight Projections

    Dem Rep Margin

    46.8 45.6 +1.2

    bama +1.2



    Adjusted polling average

    48.5

    44.8

    Obama +3.7



    State fundamentals

    48.7

    44.6

    Obama +4.1



    Now-cast

    48.6

    44.8

    Obama +3.8

    Projected vote share±5.8

    51.4

    47.4

    Obama +4.0

    Chance of winning

    76% Obama Romney 24%
     
  2. Conservative
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    Conservative Type 40

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    Thrity???
     
  3. Chris
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    Chris Gold Member

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    Nate is predicting that Obama will be around 314 electoral votes.

    The hundreds of millions of Koch brothers dollars spent, all the voter suppression, all the lies the Republicans told, will all be in vain.
     
  4. Listening
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    Oh look...

    Another liberal post-orgasmic poll thread.

    The bounce is already fading.

    The swing states are tightening.

    Obama is going to get his ass handed to him over Lybia/Egypt.

    You should quit campaigning and go home.
     
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  5. courseofhistory
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    courseofhistory BANNED

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    I watch this and other sites (mostly the swing state pollls and projections) daily and so far the trend is in favor of Obama. it hasn't changed much on Five Thrity Eight or the others I watch much in the last 6-8 weeks.

    At the moment on page one of the site, Obama has a 91.6% chance of winning which is the highest it has been since I've been watching (nowcast). The Nov. 6 forecast is 80.8% for Obama which is about the same as it has been for quite a while.
     
  6. Chris
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    Chris Gold Member

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    The candidate leading the polls the last two weeks of September has won 15 of the last 15 presidential elections.
     
  7. courseofhistory
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    courseofhistory BANNED

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    The country generally rallies behind the president in times of crisis such as this and I don't think people are going to want to elect someone like Romney, especially, the foreign policy gaffe champion, in the middle of a crisis.
     
  8. Chris
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    Chris Gold Member

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    Romney couldn't even visit the Olympics without insulting our closest ally.
     
  9. Listening
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    Listening Gold Member

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    I think the words "I don't think" describe you pretty well.

    Nobody really cares what you "think" (and I highly doubt you do).
     
  10. Listening
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    Listening Gold Member

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    Yeah, being right about them insults them.

    Do you really live in that kind of stupid world ?

    Obama just got an ambassador killed. Why don't we ask his family how that's working out for him.
     

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