flacaltenn
Diamond Member
Watch your language....you're not talking to your folks.
Writing stuff for fucktards to puzzle at is a specialty, PopoC-word.
Let's look at some more science:
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Future disruptions to fire activity will threaten ecosystems and human well-being throughout the world, yet there are few fire projections at global scales and almost none from a broad range of global climate models (GCMs). Here we integrate global fire datasets and environmental covariates to build spatial statistical models of fire probability at a 0.5° resolution and examine environmental controls on fire activity.
Fire models are driven by climate norms from 16 GCMs (A2 emissions scenario) to assess the magnitude and direction of change over two time periods, 20102039 and 20702099.
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Can you believe somebody doesn't believe in any of the following:
1. greenhouse
2. global climate change
3 human causes, which include cars and chainsaws
But Ann Coulter sure seems to have her panties in a bunch, trying to catch on!
Did you even read thru that link that you posted? A toy model -- based on trivial inputs, forecasting a PROBABLE increase in fire hazard in Saharan Africa...
How damn useful is that? A global model for fire prediction based on a 1 or 2 degC rise by 2070.. BTW --- the conclusion was...
Departures from baseline (19712000) fire probabilities are computed from the 100-replicate ensembles of the 16 GCMs as mean change in fire probability for both the 20102039 and 20702099 time periods (Fig. 6). The ensemble mean changes in fire probability are highly variable, both spatially and temporally. Large areas of the globe are expected to experience relatively small near-term changes in fire probability (yellow areas in Fig. 6A), whereas predicted changes become much more pronounced in the 20702099 time period (Fig. 6C). Despite dramatic disruptions in fire activity illustrated by the model, supplementary analysis (not shown) indicated that the temperature of the warmest month is the only variable that consistently exceeds its current range of baseline observations. Furthermore, these out-of-range increases are confined to some of the warmest parts of the world in most GCMs (notably the Saharan and Arabian deserts and northern India).
Ah -- set a calendar reminder about 2040 and see if these model toys tell you ANYTHING about fire probabilities in the AMERICAN SOUTHWEST. Then call me.