Experts: Cold snap doesn't disprove global warming

Discussion in 'Environment' started by OregonStream, Jan 8, 2010.

  1. OregonStream
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    OregonStream Member

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    Variability within the climate system, despite the trend:

    tinyurl.com/yam6ax9
     
  2. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    One of the predictions of global warming is for wider and wilder swings in the weather, with an overall warming trend.
     
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  3. strollingbones
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    strollingbones Diamond Member

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    mo fo's its like 8 degrees here and dropping ...i am in the foking south .....wind chills of minus 50 in the midwest.....somehow...as the toes tingle...i dont give a damn about global mo foking warming.....
     
  4. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    And here I am in Portland, Oregon, and we are having a cool night. All the way down to 36. In the usually cold country that I call home in Eastern Oregon, it has been a relitively warm winter, so far. The lowest temperature that I have seen so far for there is -9 at Seneca. Once, when I was a child, it was unofficialy -60 degrees in Seneca. The official record for there is -53.

    Well, stay warm.
     
  5. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    From: Phil Jones <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
    To: ray bradley <rbradley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, mhughes@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
    Subject: Diagram for WMO Statement
    Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000
    Cc: k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,t.osborn@xxxxxxxxx.xxx


    Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,
    Once Tim's got a diagram here we'll send that either later today or
    first thing tomorrow.
    I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps
    to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from
    1961 for Keith's to hide the decline. Mike's series got the annual
    land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land
    N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999
    for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with
    data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.
    Thanks for the comments, Ray.

    Cheers
    Phil

    East Anglia Confirmed Emails from the Climate Research Unit - Searchable

    Man made global warming is the biggest scientific hoax in modern history
     
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  6. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    From: John Daly <daly@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
    To: n.nicholls@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
    Subject: Re: Climatic warming in Tasmania
    Date: Fri, 09 Aug 1996 20:04:00 +1100
    Cc: Ed Cook <drdendro@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, NNU-NB@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Mike Barbetti <mikeb@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, zetterberg@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rjf@xxxxxxxxx.xxx

    Dear Neville,

    You mentioned to me some time ago that in your view, the 11-year solar cycle
    did not influence temperature. There have been numerous attempts by
    academics to establish a correlation, but each has been shot down on some
    ground or other. I remember Barrie Pittock was especially dismissive of
    attempts to correlate solar cycle with temperature.

    Have you tried this approach?

    Load "Mathematica" into your PC and run the following set of instructions -

    data = ReadList[ "c:sydney.txt", Number]
    dataElements = Length[data]
    X = ListPlot[ data, PlotJoined-> True];
    fourierTrans = Fourier[data];
    ListPlot[Abs[fourierTrans], PlotJoined -> True];

    fitfun1 = Fit[data,{1,x,x^2,x^3,Sin[11 2 Pi x/dataElements],
    Cos[11 2 Pi x/dataElements]},x];
    fittable = Table[N[fitfun1], {x, dataElements}];
    Y = ListPlot[fittable, PlotJoined -> True];
    Show[X, Y]

    The reference to "c:sydney.txt" is a suggested pathname for the following
    set of data - which is Sydney's annual mean temperature.

    16.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.4
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    18.6

    So Far so good.

    "Mathematica" first plots out the data itself (see Atachment 1)

    The first part of the instruction set lets "mathematica" do a Fourier Transform
    on the data, ie. searching out the periodicities, if there are any. The result is
    shown on Attachment 2.

    The transform result shows a sharp spike at the 11 year point (I wonder
    what is significant about 11 years?). The second part of the instructions
    now acts upon this observed spike (the Cos 11 bit), to extract it's
    waveform from the rest of the noise. The result is shown as a waveform
    in attachment 3, the waves having an 11-year period, with the long-term
    Sydney warming easily evident.

    Attachment 4 shows the original Sydney data overlaid against the 11-year
    periodicity.

    It would appear that the solar cycle does indeed affect temperature.


    (I tried the same run on the CRU global temperature set. Even though CRU
    must be highly smoothed by the time all the averages are worked out, the
    11-year pulse is still there, albeit about half the size of Sydneys).

    Stay cool.

    John Daly http://www.vision.net.au/~daly

    East Anglia Confirmed Emails from the Climate Research Unit - Searchable

    The Sun affects the climate? Holy fucking moly Batman!!
     
  7. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    And who can forget all those Cat 5 hurricanes!

    Yes, it get cooler as it gets warmer hence the new phraseology: GlobalWarmerCoolering or The Great Climatic Googly Moogly
     
  8. logical4u
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    logical4u citizen

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    It is the great climate ponzi scheme!
     
  9. JWBooth
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    JWBooth Gold Member

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    Empirical evidence is meaningless, only rigged computer models are to be trusted.

    Are these the same guys that created the BCS?
     
  10. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    I see. Melting glaciers and icecaps are the result of computer models.
     

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