Electoral predictions for WH and Senate one week out

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by JakeStarkey, Nov 1, 2016.

  1. JakeStarkey
    Offline

    JakeStarkey Diamond Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2009
    Messages:
    152,762
    Thanks Received:
    13,745
    Trophy Points:
    2,165
    Ratings:
    +42,136
    CM hates Trump.
     
  2. gipper
    Offline

    gipper Libertarian/Anarchist

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2011
    Messages:
    19,174
    Thanks Received:
    3,790
    Trophy Points:
    280
    Ratings:
    +19,534
    I tried to dumb it down for you, but apparently I did not dumb it down enough.

    Sorry...but I can't be dumb enough to make you understand.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  3. JakeStarkey
    Offline

    JakeStarkey Diamond Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2009
    Messages:
    152,762
    Thanks Received:
    13,745
    Trophy Points:
    2,165
    Ratings:
    +42,136
    :) reread that, please
     
  4. gipper
    Offline

    gipper Libertarian/Anarchist

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2011
    Messages:
    19,174
    Thanks Received:
    3,790
    Trophy Points:
    280
    Ratings:
    +19,534
    Of course he does, just as does nearly everyone in the elite media...and they dupe fools like you Jake every day all day...24/7/365.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  5. JakeStarkey
    Offline

    JakeStarkey Diamond Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2009
    Messages:
    152,762
    Thanks Received:
    13,745
    Trophy Points:
    2,165
    Ratings:
    +42,136
    says the dooped one
     
  6. ScienceRocks
    Online

    ScienceRocks Blue dog all the way!

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2010
    Messages:
    56,553
    Thanks Received:
    5,533
    Trophy Points:
    1,885
    Location:
    The Good insane United states of America
    Ratings:
    +21,801
    Every battle ground state Trump could win (Toss ups)
    Florida
    Ohio
    Iowa
    Nev
    North Carolina

    2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map
    1. Florida has at least 2% more hispanic electorate in the early vote so far then 2012. Remember something like 78% of all Hispanics based on the hispanic polling will go to Clinton. Only about 10,000 votes separate parties based on the reg vote as of now but election day will greatly favor the democrats. Alot of those hispanics are also reg republicans as a large percentage of this pissed off group are Cuban.

    2. Ohio...The past week(3-5 days) has been great base on turn out within the major cities of this state. The democrats are close to catching their 2012 turn out!!!! This state is becoming doable by the democrats.

    3. Iowa the democrats have about 40,000 vote lead...Smaller then 2012 but you also have to consider that Obama won the state by about 5--6%. The overall vote is down and so the % is closer then it would seem in the advantage of the democrats.

    4. Nevada....34,000 vote lead for Hillary for the first week. Very hard for Trump to catch back up.

    North Carolina...This one is close but you also have to consider that Hillary's favorables with whites is higher then Obama's were...Trump has never shown to get nearly as many educated whites as men like Romney(60%!) and the same is occurring in states like Florida, ohio, iowa and throughout the country....College educated whites will help her get a bigger share of the latter vote then 2012...This helps her with winning the state and states like Florida.

    ----
    Lean democrat to likely democrat states that are unlikely for Trump

    Now onto the states that haven't went republican in a longer while
    New Hemisphere =6-10% lead based on the polls
    Maine 2 is doing great for Hillary with the early vote coming in for Hillary.
    Virginia = 6-10% advantage for Hllary..Fairfax county is coming out at least 50% above 2012 based on the data I've looked at so the state is long gone for Trump.
    Colorado is 2.5% in favor of HIllary based on the early vote...80% of the overall vote is the early vote based off of the 2012 vote. 20% of the election day vote is extremely pro democrat and republicans would need to lead by at least 3-5% within the early vote going into it to win.

    Likely to solid democratic states
    States that haven't want Republican since the 80's!!!
    Wi = forget it...The major cities are turning out big for Clinton.
    Pa= 6-10% advantage for clinton!!! Haven't been won since George hw Bush.
    Mi = 6-12% advantage...

    Also Neb 2 seems to be favoring Hillary!!!

    Trumps path is to win every one of the toss ups plus Co .... 2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  7. ScienceRocks
    Online

    ScienceRocks Blue dog all the way!

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2010
    Messages:
    56,553
    Thanks Received:
    5,533
    Trophy Points:
    1,885
    Location:
    The Good insane United states of America
    Ratings:
    +21,801
    If Trump loses Nev and Co(which looks extremely likely!) = He'd need all the toss ups + probably Virginia or Wi, Mi, or Pa.. New hemisphere wouldn't give it to him....

    2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map

    Mi, Wi or Pa haven't been won by republicans in decades!!! This year isn't the year.
    Virginia like I stated above is having huge turn out in fairfax...It is gone!
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  8. ScienceRocks
    Online

    ScienceRocks Blue dog all the way!

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2010
    Messages:
    56,553
    Thanks Received:
    5,533
    Trophy Points:
    1,885
    Location:
    The Good insane United states of America
    Ratings:
    +21,801
    Anyone could of beaten Hillary this year! People don't like her as one can glean by her favorability and her imagine is damaged greatly by the bull shit email scandal daily. The only thing that could have kept the republicans out of the white house this year is Trumps negative and screwed up campaign...Seriously, he has had lower favorables then hillary? Damn! Turning off educated whites and non-whites like you can't believe.

    Cruz would of won and probably would have done so based on policy and simply beating her on the debate stage. He'd be 5% up on her right now and thinking about the curtains he'll put up in the oval office at this moment!

    Rubio or Jeb would have won even bigger as Hispanics would have come out for them.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  9. JimH52
    Offline

    JimH52 Gold Member

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2007
    Messages:
    21,442
    Thanks Received:
    3,436
    Trophy Points:
    290
    Location:
    US
    Ratings:
    +10,557
    And Virginia wants Kaine in as VP. Trump has NO chance in Virginia, I assure you.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  10. former republican
    Offline

    former republican Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2016
    Messages:
    67
    Thanks Received:
    11
    Trophy Points:
    21
    Location:
    west of the Rockies
    Ratings:
    +44
    The polls and predictions are all over the place. This one still gives Clinton a 73.8% chance of winning. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    I agree more with your predictions. This is likely to be a much closer race than what many of the polls suggest, or what most of the diehard Hillary or diehard Donald supporters predict.

    I voted for Hillary but I held my nose tight while doing so. I don't fully trust her but Trump is so much worse in my opinion. The GOP could have nominated someone more mainstream who would easily win this year and chances are I would have voted GOP if it had been Kasich or Rubio, but not Cruz.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1

Share This Page

Search tags for this page
election predictions by state
,

fhris matthews for trump

,

latest electoral predictions

,
senate predictions
,
trump leading in nc oh va pa and nv