Durable Goods Orders TOMORROW!!!

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Neubarth, Jun 23, 2009.

  1. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Durable Goods Orders

    Importance (A-F): This release merits a B.

    Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

    Release Time: 8:30 ET around the 26th of the month (data for month prior).

    Raw Data Available At: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, & Orders (M3).

    The durable orders release measures the dollar volume of orders, shipments, and unfilled orders of durable goods (defined as goods whose intended lifespan is three years or more). Orders are considered a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, and the market often moves on this report despite the volatility and large revisions that make it a less than perfect indicator. These problems can be minimized by looking at the breakdown of orders. The total number is often skewed by huge increases in aircraft and defense orders. An increase based solely on strength in one sector tends to be discounted, while the market is more impressed with broadbased increases in orders.

    Also notable in this report is the narrow category of nondefense capital goods. These goods mirror the GDP category producers' durable equipment (PDE) -- the largest component of business investment. Shipments of nondefense capital goods are a good proxy for PDE in the current quarter, while nondefense capital goods orders provide an indication of PDE growth in the quarters ahead.

    Yahoo! Briefing Economic Calendar Terms
     
  2. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    THERE WAS A LOT OF MANIPULATION OF THE NUMBERS IN THE LAST REPORT. They dumped the march numbers just before releasing the April report so they could make April look good. One of those Green shoot things that was not real, just contrived to help the banks sell shares.

    They did the same thing with January and February. That Feb report rallied the market into a 30% climb. but the other reports clearly showed that the economy was still falling and falling.

    Well now they have to "balance the numbers" and I expect that this Green Shoot will not be there any more.

    Durable Orders

    Apr +1.9
    Mar - 2.1 (ORIGINALLY REPORTED AS –0.8%)
    Feb 09 +3.4
    Jan 09 – 5.2%
    Dec 08 – 2.6%
    Nov 08 – 1.0 %
    Oct 08 – 8.4
    Sep 08 –1.0
    Aug 08 – 4.5

    They may try to continue the ruse, but I doubt it. Look for negative numbers and no more green shoots.
     
  3. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    The trend in the market is down. Even if it is a good number, I think the market will either sell off tomorrow or in a day or two.
     
  4. wimpy77
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    wimpy77 Member

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    the thing that will move the market the most tomorrow looks to be the statement after the fed meeting ends.
     
  5. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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