Old Rocks
Diamond Member
I find the findings of the USGS to be far more trustworthy than the personal observations of an anonymous poster on a message board.Do you live anywhere near the Chesapeake? Have you been on or around it multiple times a year? I don't care what your stats say I only care what my eyes saw and as a scientist my powers of observation are extremely acute. Now to be fair I haven't been near the bay since 2011 so things could have changed
Well, you personally, do not seem to be a very accurate in your observations.That's a postulation made by some and possibly partially true. I used to live in the DC metro area, for the last 40 + years the Chesapeake Bay has been constantly in the news specifically the crabbing and oyster industry that has been in serious decline due to over harvesting and the pollution in the bay. Having been on and hiked along the Chesapeake bay numerous times over those decades I personally noted no rise in water levels.And the increasing erosion of the islands.Uuummmmm....... Let's see here, Report and study "suggests"........ Tangier Island is losing residents...... Residents who's primary source of is crab and oyster fishing........
https://www.conservationgateway.org/Documents/CBF-BadWatersReport.pdf
It's also affected oysters in the bay.
Smith Island is suffering the same fate and residents say the island has been slowly shrinking for centuries.
As for Tangier Island shrinking there definitely is erosion mostly due to storms, the Chesapeake can be harsh at times and possibly some rise in sea levels, don't that know for a fact but my point is the real reason people are leaving the island, a major decline in their primary industry.
USGS Chesapeake Bay Activities Science Summary - Sea-Level Rise and Chesapeake Bay
Modern Sea-Level Rise
Two major factors contribute to global sea-level rise: thermal expansion from increasing ocean heat content, and the melting of glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Since about 2003, glaciers and ice sheets (fig. 2) have contributed a greater proportion of the global sea-level rise than thermal expansion (Meier and others, 2007; Cogley, 2009; Rignot, Bamber, and others, 2008; Rignot, Box, and others, 2008). Today’s glaciers and ice sheets store enough water to raise sea level by about 68 to 70 m. Calculated rates of global mean sea-level rise range from 1.7 to 3.2 mm/yr, depending on the time period examined (Cazenave and Llovel, 2010; Church and White, 2011). Detecting fluctuations in the rate of sea-level change can be difficult as a result of the short period of record of tide gages and chronological uncertainty in marsh paleo-sea-level studies (Larsen and Clark, 2006). Some key findings include:
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- Chesapeake Bay tide-gage records and paleo-sea-level records from tidal marshes and the bay’s main stem, determined from sediment cores collected from 1995 to 2006 (fig. 1), show that rates of sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay range from about 3.2 to 4.7 mm/yr depending on the location and period of record for each tide gage. These rates exceed the global average because the land is subsiding; therefore, the Chesapeake Bay area is more vulnerable than many other coastal regions to sea-level rise.
- The departure of sea-level trends in Chesapeake Bay from the global mean for the last century may not persist. Therefore, rates measured at tide gages do not necessarily reflect pre-20th century regional patterns, nor can they be expected to persist into the future.
- Estimates of local subsidence from groundwater withdrawal in parts of Virginia are 1.5 and 3.7 mm/yr for 1979–95 and 1982–95, respectively (Pope and Burbey, 2004). Subsidence is expected to increase with greater withdrawals.