oldfart
Older than dirt
The Congressional Budget Office issues a monthly budget update on revenues, expenditures, and the resulting surplus or deficit which is based on the figures from the Bureau of the Debt and CBO's own forecasts. Since the fiscal year ends each Sept the fiscal year "official" figures come out this time each year. The lasted can be found at Monthly Budget Review Summary for Fiscal Year 2014 Congressional Budget Office.
Basically the report shows that the absolute level of the deficit and the size of the deficit relative to GDP remained stable from 2009 through 2011, and both decreased dramatically for years 2012 through 2014. The deficit as a percentage of GDP decreased from 9.8% to 2.8%. Ironically, both revenue and expenditures as a percentage of GDP at the end of fiscal 2014 were at the average of the period 1975-2014; which means that the budget deficit is exactly where it "normally" should be if normal is defined as the average for the last 40 years. This deficit position is no worse than at the end of the Reagan years.
Now both the absolute deficit and the deficit relative to GDP are projected by CBO to increase starting in 2015 due to demographic changes and long term economic projections, so I would venture that 2014 is the height of the deficit control for this business cycle. I predict that both parties will point with pride and claim this as a victory, while viewing with alarm the trend upward in the future which will be blamed on the opposite party. As both parties were involved in the cooking, both parties share credit or blame. But that won't stop the ideologues on both sides from claiming all success came from their policies and all failures from their opponents'!
Basically the report shows that the absolute level of the deficit and the size of the deficit relative to GDP remained stable from 2009 through 2011, and both decreased dramatically for years 2012 through 2014. The deficit as a percentage of GDP decreased from 9.8% to 2.8%. Ironically, both revenue and expenditures as a percentage of GDP at the end of fiscal 2014 were at the average of the period 1975-2014; which means that the budget deficit is exactly where it "normally" should be if normal is defined as the average for the last 40 years. This deficit position is no worse than at the end of the Reagan years.
Now both the absolute deficit and the deficit relative to GDP are projected by CBO to increase starting in 2015 due to demographic changes and long term economic projections, so I would venture that 2014 is the height of the deficit control for this business cycle. I predict that both parties will point with pride and claim this as a victory, while viewing with alarm the trend upward in the future which will be blamed on the opposite party. As both parties were involved in the cooking, both parties share credit or blame. But that won't stop the ideologues on both sides from claiming all success came from their policies and all failures from their opponents'!