Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011

[Trakar]

Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011 ​

Environ. Res. Lett. 7 (2012) 044035 (5pp) doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044035

(excerpt)

In conclusion, the rise in CO2 concentration and global temperature has continued to closely match the projections over the past five years, while sea level continues to rise faster than anticipated. The latter suggests that the 21st Century sea-level projections of the last two IPCC reports may be systematically biased low. Further support for this concern is provided by the fact that the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are increasingly losing mass (Rignot et al 2011, Van den Broeke et al 2011), while those IPCC projections assumed that Antarctica will gain enough mass in future to largely compensate mass losses from Greenland (see figure 10.33 in Meehl et al (2007)). For this reason, an additional contribution (‘scaled-up ice sheet discharge’) was suggested in the IPCC fourth assessment. Our results highlight the need to thoroughly validate models with data of past climate changes before applying them to projections.​

Full paper available at:
http://mall.lampnet.org/filemanager/download/1588/comparing_climate_projections.pdf​

 

[skookerasbil]

Trakkar s0n......you've started 12 threads on this page alone..........in the last few days, man!!!


Wouldnt be promoting propaganda by any chance, would you??

 

[Trakar]

Trakkar s0n......you've started 12 threads on this page alone..........in the last few days, man!!!


Wouldnt be promoting propaganda by any chance, would you??

A true legume in your own mind.

 

[Old Rocks]

Antarctica Glacier's Retreat 'Unprecedented' - SKYE on AOL

"We can show that the present grounding-line retreat is really exceptional over a longer time scale, over the last 10,000 years," he said. "In the previous 10,000 years, the grounding line retreated by just about 56 miles, but in the last 20 years, it retreated by 15 miles."

The results appear in the January 2013 issue of the journal Geology.

Looks like Antarctica has more surprises for us.

 

[SSDD]

Problem is that the projections keep getting rewritten every few years.

 

[Trakar]

Problem is that the projections keep getting rewritten every few years.

That isn't a "problem," that is the effect of increased information and understanding, which is how open-minded consideration (as opposed to ideological dogma that denies evidence in favor of faith) and science function. Most consider this a benefit.

 

[SSDD]

Problem is that the projections keep getting rewritten every few years.

That isn't a "problem," that is the effect of increased information and understanding, which is how open-minded consideration (as opposed to ideological dogma that denies evidence in favor of faith) and science function. Most consider this a benefit.

It is a failure of prediction. If the hypothesis, and models it spawned were correct, constant rewriting would not be necessary. If actual science were being done, the first time rewriting needed to be done, the hypothesis would be tossed out and the search for one that actually worked would begin again.