Statistikhengst
Diamond Member
- Banned
- #1
Of the 283 polls and 1025 matchups to-date, Hillary vs. various specific GOP contenders, I have sorted out the Hillary vs. Cruz matchups, nationally and in Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and Florida and simply made screenshots:
Nationally, that makes for 22 Hillary-Cruz match-ups to date and Cruz has never gotten closer than being 10 points behind Hillary. He is losing to Hillary nationally by a massive landslide margin.
In Florida:
In Florida, out of 19 polls, 6 Hillary-Cruz match-ups - in a state with a sizable Cuban-latino population- , the closest he has come has been 11 points behind Hillary. In fact, in 3 of those 6 polls, he is behind by 20 points or more. In all of my life, I have not witnessed a Democrat polling 26 points ahead of a Republican in Florida, ever. It has been a narrow single-digit win state now for 6 full cycles. The latest poll has him 23 points behind Hillary. This are unusual numbers for Republicans to have to look at...
In North Carolina:
In North Carolina, out of 19 polls, there have been 7 Hillary-Cruz matchups, and the closest he has come has been 4 points behind Hillary. That makes the state competitive, but Hillary is doing decidedly better here than Obama did in polling in either 2008 or 2012. Alone the fact that no GOPer can "put away" North Carolina is a very bad sign for them.
In Ohio, the QUINTESSENTIAL battleground state, the state that no GOPer since Lincoln has lost and yet, still won the national election:
9 Ohio polls, three Hillary-vs-Cruz matchups and the closest Cruz comes is -14 behind Hillary. Now, those polls are somewhat old, so I suspect that after his announcement, we will see some heaving polling in all four of the battlegrounds I am presenting in this thread, esp. Ohio.
In Virginia, where Ted Cruz is announcing his candidacy TODAY:
17 Virginia polls, 3 Clinton vs. Cruz matchups, and the closest that Cruz comes to Hillary is from 10 points behind, just like in Florida, just like nationally. Just as in the case of Ohio, these polls are all somewhat old, so I expect fresh battleground polling very shortly.
But the long and short of it is that in ALL national matchups, all Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia matchups, Cruz is behind Clinton, and considerably at that. He has his work cut out for him.
Now, for those who want to naysay this, I say: here, now you have a baseline. If polling in the next weeks shows the results to be much closer or even shows Cruz winning some, then you can hoop and holler, because you have a baseline to compare it with, thanks to me.
But if after his announcement, nothing changes, then I would submit to you that Cruz has a real problem on his hands.
Don't worry, I will be reporting future polls just as energetically as these.
Why those four battleground states? Well, because without them, you cannot win the White House these days. These days, you need at least two of the four to win, and if you are winning, you are likely to win at least three of the four.
In 2000 and 2004, Bush won all four of them, currently worth 75 electoral votes. In 2008, Obama won all four of them. In 2012, he won 3 of 4 of them and North Carolina, which Romney picked-up for the GOP, was the second closest race of the night.
So, it's no surprise to me that Cruz has picked Virginia to be his launch-point for 2016. Were he to get the GOP nomination, he will need Virginia solidily in his column to be able to combat the so-called "blue wall".
AceRothstein Derideo_Te Mertex Luddly Neddite Grandma guno
Anyone who wants on the electoral polling call-list, just hit me up in convo...
Nationally, that makes for 22 Hillary-Cruz match-ups to date and Cruz has never gotten closer than being 10 points behind Hillary. He is losing to Hillary nationally by a massive landslide margin.
In Florida:
In Florida, out of 19 polls, 6 Hillary-Cruz match-ups - in a state with a sizable Cuban-latino population- , the closest he has come has been 11 points behind Hillary. In fact, in 3 of those 6 polls, he is behind by 20 points or more. In all of my life, I have not witnessed a Democrat polling 26 points ahead of a Republican in Florida, ever. It has been a narrow single-digit win state now for 6 full cycles. The latest poll has him 23 points behind Hillary. This are unusual numbers for Republicans to have to look at...
In North Carolina:
In North Carolina, out of 19 polls, there have been 7 Hillary-Cruz matchups, and the closest he has come has been 4 points behind Hillary. That makes the state competitive, but Hillary is doing decidedly better here than Obama did in polling in either 2008 or 2012. Alone the fact that no GOPer can "put away" North Carolina is a very bad sign for them.
In Ohio, the QUINTESSENTIAL battleground state, the state that no GOPer since Lincoln has lost and yet, still won the national election:
9 Ohio polls, three Hillary-vs-Cruz matchups and the closest Cruz comes is -14 behind Hillary. Now, those polls are somewhat old, so I suspect that after his announcement, we will see some heaving polling in all four of the battlegrounds I am presenting in this thread, esp. Ohio.
In Virginia, where Ted Cruz is announcing his candidacy TODAY:
17 Virginia polls, 3 Clinton vs. Cruz matchups, and the closest that Cruz comes to Hillary is from 10 points behind, just like in Florida, just like nationally. Just as in the case of Ohio, these polls are all somewhat old, so I expect fresh battleground polling very shortly.
But the long and short of it is that in ALL national matchups, all Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia matchups, Cruz is behind Clinton, and considerably at that. He has his work cut out for him.
Now, for those who want to naysay this, I say: here, now you have a baseline. If polling in the next weeks shows the results to be much closer or even shows Cruz winning some, then you can hoop and holler, because you have a baseline to compare it with, thanks to me.
But if after his announcement, nothing changes, then I would submit to you that Cruz has a real problem on his hands.
Don't worry, I will be reporting future polls just as energetically as these.
Why those four battleground states? Well, because without them, you cannot win the White House these days. These days, you need at least two of the four to win, and if you are winning, you are likely to win at least three of the four.
In 2000 and 2004, Bush won all four of them, currently worth 75 electoral votes. In 2008, Obama won all four of them. In 2012, he won 3 of 4 of them and North Carolina, which Romney picked-up for the GOP, was the second closest race of the night.
So, it's no surprise to me that Cruz has picked Virginia to be his launch-point for 2016. Were he to get the GOP nomination, he will need Virginia solidily in his column to be able to combat the so-called "blue wall".
AceRothstein Derideo_Te Mertex Luddly Neddite Grandma guno
Anyone who wants on the electoral polling call-list, just hit me up in convo...
Last edited:
