arctic ice

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Old Rocks, Nov 15, 2011.

  1. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Looking back to this summers melt, one can see that the predictions of the 'alarmists' were way off. The melt is far more rapid than even the most alarmist of them suggested.

    Climate Change Panel's 2007 Predictions on Arctic Ice Too Optimistic? | Alaska Dispatch

    The polar sea has been losing about 10 percent of its permanent ice every decade since 1980, with the 2011 melt season delivering the lowest volume seen during the modern age, and virtually matching the minimum record for the smallest extent set in 2007.

    If the current trend continues, some scientists say, the polar ocean could become essentially ice free during summers within a decade or two. That outcome is about 80 years sooner than what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted in 2007.

    So what gives? It turns out those IPCC supercomputing climate models, which conjured the once-unthinkable possibility of an ice-free Arctic Ocean by summer of 2100, all fumbled a key calculation. They underestimated just how fast thinning floes could exit south to the Atlantic Ocean where they would melt into slushy oblivion.
     
  2. Old Rocks
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  3. Old Rocks
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    Record Arctic Ice Melt Threatens Global Security - IPS ipsnews.net

    This year, the summer weather was normal and yet it the ice vanished in similar amounts to 2007.

    "That tells us the sea ice is too thin now to hold up under normal weather conditions," he said.

    Both the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route across the Arctic are wide open again, as has happened almost every year since 2007. An oil tanker recently crossed the Arctic Ocean in the record time of eight days travelling from Houston, Texas to Map Ta Phut, Thailand.

    This summer's ice loss is double the summer ice melt of 30 to 40 years ago. A child born at the advent of the satellite era, when humanity had its first complete look at the frozen vastness, would be 32 years old today. Now they would see that more than three million square kilometres of ice - about the size of India - has vanished this summer compared to the summer they were born.
     
  4. wirebender
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    wirebender Senior Member

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    And do you believe this is even approaches the boundries of natural variability?
     
  5. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    No, it does not approach the boundry of natural variability in the time frame that it has happened.
     
  6. wirebender
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    wirebender Senior Member

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    Really? Got any proof? Got any hard evidence that the ice didn't melt even more quickly during the roman and medieval warm periods when the warming took place even more rapidly and to a greater degree than the present? Got any evidence at all?
     
  7. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Well, first of all, all real evidence shows that the MWP was not nearly as warm worldwide as today. The RWP was too far in the past to get any real accuracy with the proxies, but I suspect that it, like the MWP was primarily an Atlantic and Northern European effect.

    The Medieval Warm(ish) Period In Pictures

    Science marches on while skeptics don't
    The MWP was very unlike warming today; the growing North American glaciers during the MWP being somewhat of a giveaway. The MWP only affected warming in a handful of regions, with Greenland being especially warm (Figure 1), whereas much of the Earth was actually cooler than the late 20th century. By comparison; today virtually every glacier and ice sheet on the planet is in rapid retreat.

    Both the climate proxies and the climate models imply that the MWP was a re-organization of the Earth's climate, and that much of this re-organization can be explained by oceanic patterns of warming and cooling, although what started all this rolling in the first place is still unknown.

    So while some climate "skeptics" are stuck in a time loop, wilfully reliving their own version of Groundhog Day, science continues to move forward.
     
  8. wirebender
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    wirebender Senior Member

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    Really? That's the problem with only getting information from your church rocks. How many dozen peer reviewed papers would you like to see that find that the medieveal warm period was not only considerably warmer than the present, but was global in nature?


    Here, have a few, I have dozens.

    ingentaconnect A 700 year record of Southern Hemisphere extratropical climate va...

    SpringerLink - Chinese Science Bulletin, Volume 53, Number 19

    CSA

    Evidence for a warmer period during the 12th and 13th centuries AD from chironomid assemblages in Southampton Island, Nunavut, Canada

    SpringerLink - Climatic Change, Volume 26, Numbers 2-3

    Warmer and global in nature rocks. Science wins again.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  9. Old Rocks
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    Do I ever love it when you dumb asses don't even bother to read what is in the links you post! The MWP was over by 1700, which is where the time period this article is concerned with starts. And you really should try to read the abstracts with at least a bit of comprehension. Did you even notice the last sentence?

    ingentaconnect A 700 year record of Southern Hemisphere extratropical climate va...

    Abstract:

    Annually dated ice cores from West and East Antarctica provide proxies for past changes in atmospheric circulation over Antarctica and portions of the Southern Ocean, temperature in coastal West and East Antarctica, and the frequency of South Polar penetration of El Niño events. During the period AD 1700-1850, atmospheric circulation over the Antarctic and at least portions of the Southern Hemisphere underwent a mode switch departing from the out-of-phase alternation of multi-decadal long phases of EOF1 and EOF2 modes of the 850 hPa field over the Southern Hemisphere (as defined in the recent record by Thompson and Wallace, 2000; Thompson and Solomon, 2002) that characterizes the remainder of the 700 year long record. From AD 1700 to 1850, lower-tropospheric circulation was replaced by in-phase behavior of the Amundsen Sea Low component of EOF2 and the East Antarctic High component of EOF1. During the first phase of the mode switch, both West and East Antarctic temperatures declined, potentially in response to the increased extent of sea ice surrounding both regions. At the end of the mode switch, West Antarctic coastal temperatures rose and East Antarctic coastal temperatures fell, respectively, to their second highest and lowest of the record. Polar penetration of El Niño events increased during the mode switch. The onset of the AD 1700-1850 mode switch coincides with the extreme state of the Maunder Minimum in solar variability. Late 20th-century West Antarctic coastal temperatures are the highest in the record period, and East Antarctic coastal temperatures close to the lowest. Since AD 1700, extratropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere have experienced significant climate variability coincident with changes in both solar variability and greenhouse gases.
     
  10. Old Rocks
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    The rest of the articles are good finds. Thank you for posting them.
     

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