Anyone Who Believe the Economy is Getting Better is a FUCKING MORON!

[Toro]

Remember I asked people to post their data showing that the economy is improving. Nobody could.

What are you talking about? The economy grew by 3.5% in the third quarter.

 

[Zander]

Remember I asked people to post their data showing that the economy is improving. Nobody could.

What are you talking about? The economy grew by 3.5% in the third quarter.

Take out the government spending and the economy was underwater again. The Feds are busy creating another bubble. It will end badly, like all bubbles eventually do.

 

[Toro]

Remember I asked people to post their data showing that the economy is improving. Nobody could.

What are you talking about? The economy grew by 3.5% in the third quarter.

Take out the government spending and the economy was underwater again. The Feds are busy creating another bubble. It will end badly, like all bubbles eventually do.

Actually, no. If you take out the government spending and incentives, the economy still grew. Slower, but still positive.

And yes, the government is creating another bubble. Don't know if it will end badly or not, but it could.

 

[Zander]

What are you talking about? The economy grew by 3.5% in the third quarter.

Take out the government spending and the economy was underwater again. The Feds are busy creating another bubble. It will end badly, like all bubbles eventually do.

Actually, no. If you take out the government spending and incentives, the economy still grew. Slower, but still positive.

And yes, the government is creating another bubble. Don't know if it will end badly or not, but it could.

We'll see.

 

[sealybobo]

What needs to be done to fix the economy? Lets analyze that and see which of you actually wants the economy to get better, and which of you don't.

Wages need to go up.

Nafta needs to be fixed. Bring jobs home.

People need to be able to organize. LABOR

Illegal employers need to stop hiring illegals. Not amnesty.

On another note, it wouldn't hurt if:

The rich need to start paying the taxes they paid pre GW.

We need to get out of Iraq/Afganistan.

All government contracts need to be examined for waste and fraud.

The government needs to put/keep healthcare providers and oil and all other "necessity" providers in check.

Lobbyists control of our government needs to end.

ok...........who are you and what have you done with sealy...........

How is that any different than the old Sealy?

And notice the righties shy away from debating these issues because THEY are the cause of these problems. NAFTA, they want free trade.

Increasing wages? They are against that. Unions? Against them too.

Illegal employers? They don't think this affects them because they don't pick fruit. WRONG.

Taxing the rich? They know that whether its the GOP or DEMS, the spending will be about what it is no matter who's in charge. One spends on social programs, the other on war. So the tea baggers don't really want to cut spending, just social programs. Debate them on defense contracts and see.

They started the wars

Corporate fraud/corruption in government contracts are the majority of government waste. Righties defend these corporations because they have been programmed to defend corporations at any/all costs.

Put oil and healthcare companies in check? Righties are against that too.

Republicans are notorious for being in bed with lobbyists. They unashamadly cater to the rich.

So on every issue/problem, the GOP are not only wrong, they are the reason for the problem. All our problems came from right wing policies.

Is that more like the old Sealy?

 

[sealybobo]

What needs to be done to fix the economy? Lets analyze that and see which of you actually wants the economy to get better, and which of you don't.

Wages need to go up.

Answer, who is going to pay for wages going up? Business can't afford it, they are laying off.

Nafta needs to be fixed. Bring jobs home.

Answer, The U.S has the 2nd highest tax rate on corporations, it's way too expensive to do business here. If they reduce their rates to Austrailia 10% it would probably happen but they are coming back at a 35% tax rate.

People need to be able to organize. LABOR

Answer-oh there is plenty of that and it is also one of the major reasons the U>S car companies are toast. The car company can not afford to pay a high school graduate the equivalent of $65 per hour when Toyota pays $18.00 per hour. The cost of the car has to make up for the costs of those unions or go under. Toyota's are lookin good because of their price. Unions have a tendency to push the plate and they push that plate sooo hard that they end up bankrupting the companies that they work for.

Illegal employers need to stop hiring illegals. Not amnesty.

The democrats voted down e-verify a quick and easy system to determine who is an illegal, why don't you write your party about that.

On another note, it wouldn't hurt if:

The rich need to start paying the taxes they paid pre GW.

Answer-The rich already pay the extreme majority of taxes in this country, they are also the ones who invest in business so that others can have a job. Small business owners make over $250,000 and if you tax them more, they lay off more and more people.

We need to get out of Iraq/Afganistan.

Answer-Not until we win, we have in Iraq, but Afganistan would just fuel Al-qeuida again and then we get another 9-11 or worse.

All government contracts need to be examined for waste and fraud.

Answer-It's high time that was done, but good luck doing it, when the congress has their fingers in the pot. It's like letting the fox into the hen house.

The government needs to put/keep healthcare providers and oil and all other "necessity" providers in check.

Answer- the government needs to stay out of the way of business, they are the cause for most of the problems we have today. Freddie and Fannie mortgage backed securities, giving sweet deals to Chris Dodd from Country Wide- corruption. Government is no good at doing business, they need to get the hell out of the way and let the smart people do what they do best and that's create growth, opportunity and long term jobs.

Lobbyists control of our government needs to end.

Answer- Dead on right.

2 years ago you guys were clueless about what the oil companies and bankers were doing to us at $4 a gallon, and now you are just as clueless on healthcare?

 

[Zander]

 

[Neubarth]

Remember I asked people to post their data showing that the economy is improving. Nobody could.

What are you talking about? The economy grew by 3.5% in the third quarter.

I have already addressed that multiple times over, Toro. I know you know that as you have responded to my posts about the continuing collapsing economy month after month as I have been posting them on here.

Months ago, I pointed out that Bernanke and Geitner were solving the GDP problem, but were doing nothing of substance for the economy. I said that they would get their positive GDP with all of that government spending, but people would still be out of work and more and more would be losing their jobs.

Guess what, dude? Yep, it happened!

 

[Neubarth]

What needs to be done to fix the economy? Lets analyze that and see which of you actually wants the economy to get better, and which of you don't.
Answer- the government needs to stay out of the way of business, they are the cause for most of the problems we have today. Freddie and Fannie mortgage backed securities, giving sweet deals to Chris Dodd from Country Wide- corruption. Government is no good at doing business, they need to get the hell out of the way and let the smart people do what they do best and that's create growth, opportunity and long term jobs.

Lobbyists control of our government needs to end.

Answer- Dead on right.

2 years ago you guys were clueless about what the oil companies and bankers were doing to us at $4 a gallon, and now you are just as clueless on healthcare?

Government needs to execute anybody who has the slightest hint of corruption. Thousands of Big Bankers would be put to death. Anybody guilty of fraud would be terminated. THAT is how it is done in China and should be done here. Reform the courts so that a trial for business crime can be conducted in front of a Three Judge jury. Those judges will be experts in the area of the trial, so if it was fraud they would all be PhD's in economics. If two of the three voted the accused guilty, he would be afforded a last minute appeal and then taken out behind the courthouse and shot. Swift sure justice would remedy the problems that brought America to its present precarious position.

 

[Toro]

Remember I asked people to post their data showing that the economy is improving. Nobody could.

What are you talking about? The economy grew by 3.5% in the third quarter.

I have already addressed that multiple times over, Toro. I know you know that as you have responded to my posts about the continuing collapsing economy month after month as I have been posting them on here.

Months ago, I pointed out that Bernanke and Geitner were solving the GDP problem, but were doing nothing of substance for the economy. I said that they would get their positive GDP with all of that government spending, but people would still be out of work and more and more would be losing their jobs.

Guess what, dude? Yep, it happened!

The thesis doesn't hold, Neubarth.

GDP is a measurement of output. At the end of a recession, there is never an increase in employment when GDP starts rising again. Never. Employment does not start increasing until companies see that the increase in output is sustainable and they feel confident enough to start hiring again. Unemployment always peaks after GDP has bottomed. This recession is no different.

Government spending always plays a significant role in the economy, and it is always a higher percentage of GDP at the bottom of a recession. This is true even if there are zero dollars spent on stimulus.

Arguing that somehow government spending doesn't count is a fallacious argument for two reasons. First, the lack of government spending would mean that the economy would decline. Economic activity is generated around government spending. Second, in the case of this recession, government spending is critical in keeping the economy afloat while the financial system repairs itself.

We are not in a depression. Depressions don't have a GDP print of +3.5%. Period. However, we could go into a depression if we have subsequent collapses in the financial system. We would have gone into a depression, in my opinion, had the government - particularly the Fed - not stepped in to backstop the financial system last year. Government spending is preventing a deflationary negative feedback loop so the economy doesn't create more losses in the financial system, restricting credit causing less economic activity causing more losses leading to more credit restriction, etc. Government spending is allowing the banks to mitigate their losses and rebuild equity by borrowing at 0% and lending at higher rates, thus repairing the financial system. So to dismiss the effect of government spending is simply incorrect. It is critical right now.

We are going to have several quarters of positive GDP growth. We very well may fall back into recession in 2010 or 2011, I don't know. But for now, the economy is stabilizing and beginning to grow.

 

[Neubarth]

What are you talking about? The economy grew by 3.5% in the third quarter.

I have already addressed that multiple times over, Toro. I know you know that as you have responded to my posts about the continuing collapsing economy month after month as I have been posting them on here.

Months ago, I pointed out that Bernanke and Geitner were solving the GDP problem, but were doing nothing of substance for the economy. I said that they would get their positive GDP with all of that government spending, but people would still be out of work and more and more would be losing their jobs.

Guess what, dude? Yep, it happened!

The thesis doesn't hold, Neubarth.

GDP is a measurement of output. At the end of a recession, there is never an increase in employment when GDP starts rising again. Never. Employment does not start increasing until companies see that the increase in output is sustainable and they feel confident enough to start hiring again. Unemployment always peaks after GDP has bottomed. This recession is no different.

Government spending always plays a significant role in the economy, and it is always a higher percentage of GDP at the bottom of a recession. This is true even if there are zero dollars spent on stimulus.

Arguing that somehow government spending doesn't count is a fallacious argument for two reasons. First, the lack of government spending would mean that the economy would decline. Economic activity is generated around government spending. Second, in the case of this recession, government spending is critical in keeping the economy afloat while the financial system repairs itself.

We are not in a depression. Depressions don't have a GDP print of +3.5%. Period. However, we could go into a depression if we have subsequent collapses in the financial system. We would have gone into a depression, in my opinion, had the government - particularly the Fed - not stepped in to backstop the financial system last year. Government spending is preventing a deflationary negative feedback loop so the economy doesn't create more losses in the financial system, restricting credit causing less economic activity causing more losses leading to more credit restriction, etc. Government spending is allowing the banks to mitigate their losses and rebuild equity by borrowing at 0% and lending at higher rates, thus repairing the financial system. So to dismiss the effect of government spending is simply incorrect. It is critical right now.

We are going to have several quarters of positive GDP growth. We very well may fall back into recession in 2010 or 2011, I don't know. But for now, the economy is stabilizing and beginning to grow.

OH MY GOSH, YOU ARE SERIOUS!

TORO, in normal times, you might be right, but at present, you are far out in left field. We are going to see the greatest collapse in the economy in the coming weeks.

Artificial GDP like we have now is not an indicator of how bad it is out there. It IS an indicator of the deception of the Obama administration, all of whom should be tried for treason against the American People.

I am quite serious. This ruse and barrage of lies that they have brought to a once great country needs to be addressed aggressively. Obama is the Bernie Ebbers of politicians. He needs to be removed from office and we need to start cleaning house with severe penalties for all corrupt people.

We are in a Depression, a Horrible Depression with 33 MILLION Americans not able to provide for their families, even with food stamps and an absence of soup kitchen lines. The GDP numbers are totally false as anybody can see. In the real economy, people are still being laid off by the millions every month. Wake up and see the reality. I post the numbers, and you can not argue against them, so you are taking a ludicrous position that the false GDP numbers and the false Unemployment numbers are all that you need to believe. Shame on you.

 

[Toro]

We are going to see the greatest collapse in the economy in the coming weeks.

I admire that you are willing to make such a bold claim and predict collapse in a matter of weeks. Very few people are willing to do that, since if they are wrong, they take a hit to their credibility. I hope you are seriously short the market then. Otherwise, it is just talk and doesn't really mean anything.

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

There are a lot of positive economic indicators out there right now.

Lets give it a few months and see if they translate into more jobs created than lost. I know I know i've been saying that for a month now but you really got to give it at least a quater to reflect back into the employment numbers.

Come January if we are still shedding jobs i'll let the hatebeast out on the Obama economic plans .

 

[GHook93]

Remember I asked people to post their data showing that the economy is improving. Nobody could.

What are you talking about? The economy grew by 3.5% in the third quarter.

And how much did unemployment grow?

This little bump is a mirage!

Don't forget that the growth was due to temporary government plans like the cash for clunkers!

 

[Neubarth]

Remember I asked people to post their data showing that the economy is improving. Nobody could.

What are you talking about? The economy grew by 3.5% in the third quarter.

And how much did unemployment grow?

This little bump is a mirage!

Don't forget that the growth was due to temporary government plans like the cash for clunkers!

Hook, I am quite convinced that Toro is just stringing us along. This has to be a game he is playing. Nobody that I know of who is even moderately intelligent believes the false numbers coming out of Washington since Obama took office.

 

[Neubarth]

There are a lot of positive economic indicators out there right now.

Lets give it a few months and see if they translate into more jobs created than lost. I know I know i've been saying that for a month now but you really got to give it at least a quater to reflect back into the employment numbers.

Come January if we are still shedding jobs i'll let the hatebeast out on the Obama economic plans .

What positive economic numbers. I addressed that issue several times on this board. I have yet to see any positive economic numbers, only minor variations that the Obama administration keeps on calling green shoots. When those Green Shoots collapse, the Obama administration points to another variation and says THAT is a Green Shoot. When that goes down, they find another green shoot and ballyhoo that.

There ain't no damn green shoots. There is only continued economic malaise.

 

[Neubarth]

We are going to see the greatest collapse in the economy in the coming weeks.

I admire that you are willing to make such a bold claim and predict collapse in a matter of weeks. Very few people are willing to do that, since if they are wrong, they take a hit to their credibility. I hope you are seriously short the market then. Otherwise, it is just talk and doesn't really mean anything.

Not short right now. I have been long since I got out of DXD a week ago. I expect to be short in an hour or so, as I have a limit buy on DXD. If it triggers, I will be short again.

I have now been right on two shorting attempts and wrong on two. I have consistently made money in the spyder ETF, so have done quite well since March.

Credibility is fleeting. If I am wrong on this coming economic collapse, I will change my name from Neubarth to JoeNeubarth so people will not remember who I am.

 

[Soggy in NOLA]

There are some good signs, I'll admit. But there sre systemic issues which are not being addressed:

1 Continued "cheap money" policy.
2 HORRIFIC deficit spending.
3 Burdonsome tax ppolicies which are set to get worse.
4 The U.S.'s continued protectionist trade policies. (see WSJ "The U.S. Leaves Itself Behind)

These are just a few, but I doubt we're going to see much in the way of job creation.

 

[Toro]

What are you talking about? The economy grew by 3.5% in the third quarter.

And how much did unemployment grow?

This little bump is a mirage!

Don't forget that the growth was due to temporary government plans like the cash for clunkers!

Hook, I am quite convinced that Toro is just stringing us along. This has to be a game he is playing. Nobody that I know of who is even moderately intelligent believes the false numbers coming out of Washington since Obama took office.

And I'm convinced you are engaging in data mining and displaying confirmation bias to reconfirmed your preconceived views. I've seen this so many times before when traders get trapped in losing positions. They are right and everyone else is wrong, the government is lying making up the numbers, the market is stupid, its a conspiracy, and so on. And as their position moves against them and they lose even more money, they get more shrill and hysterical.

I don't know whether you've lost a lot of money on the short side Neubarth or not, but you're displaying the classical psychological traits of someone who has. You also see it when people are losing their reputation after staking so much on a position. You see it over and over again.

 

[Toro]

And how much did unemployment grow?

This little bump is a mirage!

Don't forget that the growth was due to temporary government plans like the cash for clunkers!

Unemployment always continues to rise when GDP initially bounces off the bottom. Why do you expect it to be any different this time?

Most of the GDP was not due to cash for clunkers and the like. It was due primarily from rebounding after the tremendous decline caused by the financial crisis. Once the financial crisis abated, we began to stabilize. This is a financial-induced crisis. When blood was pumped back into the financial crisis, it stabilized the economy.

The United States is going through a classical adjustment after a credit-induced balance sheet collapse. Monetary policy has stabilized the economy, and the recovery is likely to be choppy and slow. Unemployment is likely to remain high for some time, perhaps several years, as the economy grows at a relatively slow rate. Unemployment may hit 11% or even 12% before it peaks out.

Another collapse is not coming if the US withdraws the stimulus. It may cause us to slide back into recession, but there will not be another collapse unless it comes in the financial system. If there is another collapse in the financial system, then we may get a depression.