Anyone selling their stocks tomorrow?

[william the wie]

I don't know his hedges but diseconomies of scale are common in managed funds so why use them as a model?

 

[MarathonMike]

The market is in a trading range until proven otherwise.

I'd say the bias is upwards, and that's how we're positioned right now (with hedges). But yeah, these daily drama meltdowns are getting kinda silly. I've had a couple of clients call, and my response is usually "the market is just having a little temper tantrum", and they calm down. The fundamentals are very good at the moment overall. At this moment. At this very moment....


.

I'm curious, if you are able to divulge, what are your 'hedges' currently and at what percentage?

All I'm doing is trailing stop limit sell orders, right now at 6%. We had them at 5% on all accounts prior to the drop a few weeks ago and it worked perfectly.

I'm basing this on a feeling that if the market drops 6% it'll drop quite a bit more.
.

Interesting. But do you really mean on every equity position you had a 6 % stop? And if you sell, when do you start buying back in?

 

[MarathonMike]

I don't know his hedges but diseconomies of scale are common in managed funds so why use them as a model?

I'm not. I just like to ask questions from people who are knowledgeable about the markets, like you and Mac. I know what I know, but there is a plenty I don't know.

 

[Mac1958]

The market is in a trading range until proven otherwise.

I'd say the bias is upwards, and that's how we're positioned right now (with hedges). But yeah, these daily drama meltdowns are getting kinda silly. I've had a couple of clients call, and my response is usually "the market is just having a little temper tantrum", and they calm down. The fundamentals are very good at the moment overall. At this moment. At this very moment....


.

I'm curious, if you are able to divulge, what are your 'hedges' currently and at what percentage?

All I'm doing is trailing stop limit sell orders, right now at 6%. We had them at 5% on all accounts prior to the drop a few weeks ago and it worked perfectly.

I'm basing this on a feeling that if the market drops 6% it'll drop quite a bit more.
.

Interesting. But do you really mean on every equity position you had a 6 % stop? And if you sell, when do you start buying back in?

No, I keep a certain percentage of equities static, always in there, because I only want to put so much into timing. It depends on the portfolio. So our 80/20 model has 10% VT and 10% SCHB, both with the stops. Getting back in? Well, that's a gut thing. I was happy to see the correction, and probably would have preferred 15% to 18%, but I didn't (and don't) think we're near a bear market. So I bought back in at 10% down, took a 2% hit willingly, and back up we go.

If I had thought it might be a bear I would have waited quite a bit longer, but the fundamentals of the economy are fine. So now we're set up for growth and gradually increasing interest rates. When the 10-year hits around 3.20%, I'll take another hard look. Black Swan notwithstanding, I like the market right now. For now.
.

 

[william the wie]

The real mystery at this point is why is the 10 year treasury inching up in price instead of the much more usual inching down for treasuries in the run.

 

[Mac1958]

The real mystery at this point is why is the 10 year treasury inching up in price instead of the much more usual inching down for treasuries in the run.

I trust the bond market as a barometer more than the stock market, and I think it's not yet convinced about the strength of the economy. Understandable, given the last 10 years. But my guess is that there's strength.
.

 

[william the wie]

The real mystery at this point is why is the 10 year treasury inching up in price instead of the much more usual inching down for treasuries in the run.

I trust the bond market as a barometer more than the stock market, and I think it's not yet convinced about the strength of the economy. Understandable, given the last 10 years. But my guess is that there's strength.
.

The real problem seems to be location. State finances in NY and IL are becoming an ever bigger mess and I would expect it is having bad effects on the people actually completing trades. Having state, local and federal taxes go up on you with a bad local real estate market thrown in to complete your joy has got to be corrosive for morale.

 

[blastoff]

But why bother? pick any two criteria of undervaluation and play the long game it wins.

True, but why not do both? I have a core holdings account and a trading account. And occasionally I shuffle money around in my 401K. All three have positive results, and it satisfies the gambler streak in me.

LOL...thought I was reading a post I forgot I made!

 

[Picaro]

lol yet another thread with people all running different and opposing strategies, and yet nobody ever losing money. Hilarious.

 

[MarathonMike]

lol yet another thread with people all running different and opposing strategies, and yet nobody ever losing money. Hilarious.

What's really funny is that is entirely possible.

 

[Picaro]

The tariffs implemented by Trump are modest, nothing 'tough' about them; they aren't going to have much effect on domestic prices in real life, but the companies will raise them just because they can fool the public into believing their costs went up as a result, which is rubbish; they never pass on decreases in their costs anyway, so not having tariffs doesn't save the consumers anything, never has before. The effects of tariffs should be zero.

 

[Picaro]

lol yet another thread with people all running different and opposing strategies, and yet nobody ever losing money. Hilarious.

What's really funny is that is entirely possible.

Actually it isn't. Gamblers are just notorious liars, is all.

 

[william the wie]

lol yet another thread with people all running different and opposing strategies, and yet nobody ever losing money. Hilarious.

What's really funny is that is entirely possible.

If my issues are put to me I just write calls. They are also worth more dead than alive so don't throw me in that briar patch.

 

[MarathonMike]

lol yet another thread with people all running different and opposing strategies, and yet nobody ever losing money. Hilarious.

What's really funny is that is entirely possible.

Actually it isn't. Gamblers are just notorious liars, is all.

Actually it is. Making money in the stock market is less about what strategy you use than it is how you execute that strategy. It doesn't matter to me at all whether you believe that or me.

 

[william the wie]

Graham-Newman beat the Dow 4 to one 1926-56. Even the different forms of the Dogs of the Dow tend to beat the averages by highly significant percentages. The downside is that home runs are very rare, only one for Graham-Newman in 31 years.

 

[Picaro]

lol yet another thread with people all running different and opposing strategies, and yet nobody ever losing money. Hilarious.

What's really funny is that is entirely possible.

Actually it isn't. Gamblers are just notorious liars, is all.

Actually it is. Making money in the stock market is less about what strategy you use than it is how you execute that strategy. It doesn't matter to me at all whether you believe that or me.

Yes, I know all about how vast the fortunes are on paper with the genius of hindsight and cherry picking min-maxing games. Nobody loses money in Vegas, either, yet the place is full of luxury casinos and has been for decades. Amazing. Wall Street can only function if the losers outnumber the winners; hate to break that news to you, after you've read all those wonderful books touting up that casino and learned a lot of words that make it sound all 'rational' n stuff; race track touts do the sames thing.

 

[expat_panama]

... Nobody loses money in Vegas, either, yet the place is full of luxury casinos and has been for decades...

Maybe the fact that casino owners do well shows there's a very big difference between gambling and holding shares in casino corporations.

Of course nobody knows the for sure what the future holds, but it's not that big of a risk to bet that total value of U.S. corporations will grow while the population of the U.S. increases and creates new wealth. It's what's been happening for hundreds of years:

 

[william the wie]

lol yet another thread with people all running different and opposing strategies, and yet nobody ever losing money. Hilarious.

What's really funny is that is entirely possible.

Actually it isn't. Gamblers are just notorious liars, is all.

Actually it is. Making money in the stock market is less about what strategy you use than it is how you execute that strategy. It doesn't matter to me at all whether you believe that or me.

Yes, I know all about how vast the fortunes are on paper with the genius of hindsight and cherry picking min-maxing games. Nobody loses money in Vegas, either, yet the place is full of luxury casinos and has been for decades. Amazing. Wall Street can only function if the losers outnumber the winners; hate to break that news to you, after you've read all those wonderful books touting up that casino and learned a lot of words that make it sound all 'rational' n stuff; race track touts do the sames thing.

Successful gamblers and there are some are those who go for the more certain win. Place and Show also pay off if the horse picked wins. Those who make a living off lotteries use seldom picked number sequences and the state lotteries even publish the less picked sequences. Small semi-consistent wins with less share outs is the usual result. but successful gambling requires both a boatload of discipline and a high tolerance for boredom.

 

[william the wie]

... Nobody loses money in Vegas, either, yet the place is full of luxury casinos and has been for decades...

Maybe the fact that casino owners do well shows there's a very big difference between gambling and holding shares in casino corporations.

Of course nobody knows the for sure what the future holds, but it's not that big of a risk to bet that total value of U.S. corporations will grow while the population of the U.S. increases and creates new wealth. It's what's been happening for hundreds of years:

boredom tolerance and discipline is the key.

 

[expat_panama]

boredom tolerance and discipline is the key.

--and here I thought I was the only one that felt that way. Aircraft pilots describe their job the same way, as being hours of prolonged boredom punctuated by moments of shear terror.