Amateur Hour at the White House

[Toro]

The market got hammered today, in big part to the jobs report, which was weaker than expected.

On Wednesday, both Obama and Biden were out talking up the economy, saying that the jobs report was going to be good. When the market got wind of that, stocks spiked, finishing very strong. On Thursday, several Wall Street economists lifted their estimates on the number of jobs they thought would be reported, and stocks followed through on the good day Wednesday, showing decent gains.

Today, jobs came in weaker than expected. Stocks were hammered and gave up all their gains over the past two days and then some.

Stocks did not go down solely on the jobs report. The euro fell 2 cents - a huge amount in the currency markets - on continuing worries in Europe. However, there is no doubt that the market believed that the President and the VP got wind of the jobs numbers, which caused people to buy.

This is bush league stuff. The President nor the VP should never be commenting about pending economic data. It whipsawed investors and creates unnecessary volatility in the markets. The Bush administration had a policy never to comment on any upcoming releases. That is the right policy.

I hedged out most of my equity exposure Wednesday morning, and got scalded on the short side as the market rip higher into the close. I recovered on my shorts today, but I'd be enormously pissed if I had reacted to the market's movements over the past few days.

 

[Modbert]

Ouch. They shouldn't comment on upcoming releases, agreed.

 

[Baruch Menachem]

Given my feeling toward these people, I would not be surprised if the true numbers hadn't been leaked to a few friends on Wednesday.

 

[Toro]

Given my feeling toward these people, I would not be surprised if the true numbers hadn't been leaked to a few friends on Wednesday.

The President is told the night before. He didn't have the numbers on Wednesday.

 

[Oddball]

Amateur Hour at the White House

Unfortunately, it's gonna end up as four years of amateur hour at the White House.

 

[elvis]

Amateur Hour at the White House

Unfortunately, it's gonna end up as four years of amateur hour at the White House.

you mean eight.

 

[SFC Ollie]

Longest hour in the history of the USA. And the saddest.

 

[Paulie]

Can someone tell when was the last time it wasn't amateur hour at the WH?

 

[Modbert]

Can someone tell when was the last time it wasn't amateur hour at the WH?

When Teddy Roosevelt was hunting gators through the halls of the WH?

Good question.

 

[Paulie]

Can someone tell when was the last time it wasn't amateur hour at the WH?

When Teddy Roosevelt was hunting gators through the halls of the WH?

Good question.

I can't give an exact time myself, but feel pretty safe in saying it was DECADES ago.

 

[william the wie]

Can someone tell when was the last time it wasn't amateur hour at the WH?

1952-60 Ike farmed out non-military domestic policy to those who were competent and by 1940 FDR had dislodged his head from his ass. A limited case can be made that after the 94 election Clinton had a shortlived episode of competence.

 

[Oddball]

Amateur Hour at the White House

Unfortunately, it's gonna end up as four years of amateur hour at the White House.

you mean eight.

No, I mean four.

Mark it down.

 

[Paulie]

Can someone tell when was the last time it wasn't amateur hour at the WH?

1952-60 Ike farmed out non-military domestic policy to those who were competent and by 1940 FDR had dislodged his head from his ass. A limited case can be made that after the 94 election Clinton had a shortlived episode of competence.

I was leaning towards Ike myself.

 

[Modbert]

I was leaning towards Ike myself.

Ike was the greatest President of the 20th century I like to think. His competition wasn't exactly that great, but still.

 

[william the wie]

If you are talking about competently evil LBJ had Nixon beat all hollow. As a textile state congressman and later senator he knew that the inhalation of long chain fibers such as those in cigarette filters was highly lethal to lungs and cardio-vascular health. But he needed to neutralize Baptist and LDS support for Goldwater's stand on civil rights so he managed to avoid banning cigarette filters in the 1964 surgeon's general's report. He also managed to avoid the promotion of cigar smoking despite the fact that cigar smokers were the longest lived cohort of people uncovered in the report. (By about two years vs. non tobacco use if memory serves.) He even managed to promote long chain fiber inhalation to further ingratiate himself to Baptists and LDS. Now that is slick.

 

[saveliberty]

Here's your fuel for more meltdown on the 9th:

News Headlines

Portugal's parliament will start voting on Wednesday on the government's latest austerity plan and the final vote will take place on June 9, a parliamentary official said.

Not to worry though, they can finance their government debt:

The average yield soared to 1.861 percent from just 0.476 percent in the previous auction of the same maturity, but was in line with secondary market yields. The indicative offer was 500 million euros in t-bills, while demand totaled nearly 2 billion euros.

The bid-to-cover ratio jumped to 3.5 times from 2.4 times in April, which analysts said was a sign of returning investor appetite for riskier assets.

Can you imagine what would happen here at even twice the current rate?

 

[Angelhair]

Amateur Hour at the White House

Unfortunately, it's gonna end up as four years of amateur hour at the White House.

you mean eight.

Heavens NO!!!

 

[Charles_Main]

Unfortunately, it's gonna end up as four years of amateur hour at the White House.

you mean eight.

No, I mean four.

Mark it down.

Let them have their delusions it will only help us.

 

[midcan5]

The market makes no sense. If a corporation reduces its work force the stock goes up, happens all the time. The trouble today is the market is a casino with gamblers betting on nonsense from all sorts of places and quickly buying selling shorting etc etc based on all sorts of nonsense. I think, actually I know, the mattress does as well as most financial advisors.


"On the day when Saddam was caught, the bond market went up in the morning, and it went down in the afternoon. So here we had two headlines — "Bond Market Up on Saddam News," and in the afternoon, "Bond Market Down on Saddam News" — and then they had in both cases very convincing explanations of the moves. Basically if you can explain one thing and its opposite using the same data you don't have an explanation. It takes a lot of courage to keep silent." Nassim Nicholas Taleb


What do you know
http://www.poptech.org/popcasts/nassim_nicholas_taleb__poptech_2005