A Prediction That's not Mine

[william the wie]

I tried to get input on this in the Stock Market forum but I finally had to give that up because of a troll. So, here's the indicator:

At roughly a ratio of 2.4 puts/call no one can predict the odds of an issue going up or down.

The higher the ratio the ratio the higher the probability that the issue will go up because of short coverage by market makers in that options market. (Rarely but still sometimes the market maker will put his short to you and the one time it happened to me I made a profit on the deal.)

The lower the put/call ratio the higher the probability that the issue will go down because there are fewer shorts who have to bid the issue up in order to cover.

I write (sell) puts and cover with money from my account and do so at premium yields that give me either high returns or stocks I would like to have in my portfolio. I usually do so at expiration dates 5-7 months out

Here's the difficulty.:

I am running into put/call ratios that vary from the 2.4 neutral ratio by more that 1000 in both directions but only for expiration dates after the election. I'm taking this as an indicator of extreme volatility no matter who is elected and not just in the equity markets, any other theories?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

(Rarely but still sometimes the market maker will put his short to you and the one time it happened to me I made a profit on the deal.)

Gibberish.

I write (sell) puts and cover with money from my account

Naked puts.