824,000 jobs will disapear from "revision"

Discussion in 'Economy' started by slackjawed, Feb 3, 2010.

  1. slackjawed
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    slackjawed Self deported

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    U.S. May Lose 824,000 Jobs as Employment Data Revised: Analysis - Bloomberg.com

    It seems I might have been to hard on Neubarth. He has aparantly been right all along.
    The recovery.org website isn't the only place there have been 'data entry errors'. It seems the fed has been over reporting on employment.

    It looks like the unemployment rate might be higher than reported, just as Neubarth has claimed all along.

    Now I wonder why the fed would want to over report the number of jobs......I wonder.

    (note to those who do not recognize sarcasm, the last sentance was sarcasm. Please don't tell me why the fed would lie for Obama, I already have my suspicions.)
     
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  2. RodISHI
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    RodISHI Gold Member

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    It is not the only misinformation being put out. I checked a site someone put up here the other day for census information in our county. For this county it is bogus as can be for employment figures and pay scale on the averages. The federal figures do not match the states.
     
  3. slackjawed
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    slackjawed Self deported

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    I should thank the inaccurate reporting of the administration for my signature line, and for my own brand new congressional district as well.

    I think I need to apologize to neubarth for all the times I accused him of crying wolf.
    It looks like, in this case anyway, he was right on target.
     
  4. uscitizen
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    uscitizen Senior Member

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    Neubarth must actually be working. How did you beat him to the post on this anyway?

    Yes Neubarth is right on about the govt massaging the data. But this is not a new thing, we have been doing it for years.
    It is not a recent Obama plot.
     
  5. Dr.House
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    Dr.House Lives on in syndication!

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    More 0bama magic...

    824,000 jobs - gone!

    Can he saw Pelosi in half?
     
  6. Baruch Menachem
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    Baruch Menachem '

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    I don't argue with Nubarth on his stats. He has been right all along. I do think his unholy glee at bad news is in bad taste, especially given the struggles I am going through.
     
  7. mascale
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    mascale VIP Member

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    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
    | |
    | Upcoming Changes to The Employment Situation News Release |
    | |
    |Effective with the release of January 2010 data on February 5, 2010, |
    |the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will introduce several changes to |
    |The Employment Situation news release text and tables. Two new sum- |
    |mary tables--one for the household survey and one for the establish- |
    |ment survey--will replace the current table A. In addition, three new |
    |household data tables will provide information on the employment sta- |
    |tus of veterans, persons with a disability, and the foreign born. Al- |
    |so, the establishment data tables have been largely redesigned to in- |
    |clude information on all employee hours and earnings, women employees,|
    |and production and nonsupervisory employees. The ordering and format |
    |of some tables also will change. Additional information is available |
    |at Changes to the Employment Situation News Release on February 5, 2010. |
    | |
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------


    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
    | |
    | Revisions in the Establishment Survey Data |
    | |
    |With the release of January 2010 data on February 5, 2010, the Current|
    |Employment Statistics survey will introduce revisions to nonfarm pay- |
    |roll employment, hours, and earnings data to reflect the annual bench-|
    |mark adjustments for March 2009 and updated seasonal adjustment fac- |
    |tors. Not seasonally adjusted data beginning with April 2008 and sea- |
    |sonally adjusted data beginning with January 2005 are subject to revi-|
    |sion. |
    | |
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------


    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
    | |
    | Revisions in the Household Survey Data |
    | |
    |Effective with the release of data for January 2010, revisions will |
    |be introduced into the population controls for the household survey. |
    |These changes reflect the routine annual updating of intercensal popu-|
    |lation estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau. |
    | |
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
     
  8. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    "The Fed" usual refers to the Federal Reserve Bank. I assume you just don't which agency reports on unemployment and are just referring to "the federal government."

    Not sure how you're getting that....the employment data, which the article is about, comes from a completely different survey and has nothing to do with the unemployment data.

    And where are you getting the idea it was on purpose? Do you know nothing at all about surveys? When you do a statistical survey, you have an assumption about the universe you're surveying. If that turns out to be wrong, then your numbers are off.

    So...Employment levels come from the Current Employment Survey; a monthly survey of approx 160,000 businesses (approx 400,000 worksites). The businesses are asked how many people worked for them during the pay period that contained the 12th of the month. From these 160,000 businesses (of all sizes), it is extrapolated how many total jobs there are in the entire country. This has to be based on how many total businesses there are in the country and their sizes etc. One problem is that companies go out of business and new companies are formed all the time. That's hard to catch up to. The BLS uses a birth-death model of businesses to account for assumed birth and death of businesses. And also, every March, the full UI records are pulled from the states to get a comprehensive look at total jobs. So from April to January, BLS reviews the full records which give the true number, and sets that as the benchmark for all changes, meaning the numbers for the year are revised. Sometimes the revision is upward, sometimes downward.

    This year, it looks like the March 2009 employment level was off by 824,000 jobs: the number was 133,000,000 and that looks like 824,000 too many, so it will be revised down 0.6%. That's a little bit more than the average adjustment but it is less than 1% difference.

    And if it was deliberate and lying, why revise and give the true numbers? What's the point of that? And why do you assume lying when no one would reasonably expect numbers from a survey to precisely match a census?
     
  9. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    God loves you Pinko. We know that the government would never lie to us. Don't you just love the total truthfullness of the Obama administration. It is like a breath of fresh air in Newark, New Jersey. Amen. Que Viva El Presidente Por Vida.

    Regardless of what the conservatives say, the stuff that Pinko writes is not deliberately discombobulated bullshit and balderdash. Pinko is earnest and serious and totally believes what he writes even if it has the outward appearance of being phony and beyond belief. So give him a hand.
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2010
  10. uscitizen
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    uscitizen Senior Member

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    Yep the same amount of truthfulness on the job situation as the last president had.
    They both used the same methods.

    Now I am not saying that the method should not changew, I am just saying that Obama did not modify the method to make himself look better. That had already been done years before.
     

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