2014 US Senate predictions

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by Hoosier4Liberty, Feb 14, 2014.

  1. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    To reiterate my earlier point. We are not in a true recession but we are in a growth "recession" as labor force fraction growth exceeds economic and job growth. Also most of the other engines of world economic growth: the EU, Japan, China, India, Russia, South Africa and Brazil; are hitting pretty solid walls of many different types.

    Africa and to a lesser extent Latin America's oil and gas boom is bringing a lot of low cost energy supply online when there is a lot of and still growing investment in high cost energy in the developed world. The expected result of that is a big uptick in economic growth and a fairly big downtick in employment. Robots, additive manufacture, desalinization plants and other forms of automation/cleaner environment are energy intensive.

    Not only do minimum wages and Obamacare have some effect on labor costs but more importantly mask the declining costs of automation. 56 senate seats GOP are a much higher probability than current polls can predict. My offline buddy Kwasi did not mention the Gabon oil boom going online Sunday and since he is a native of Gabon and an analyst for Deutsche Bank I suspect it was a surprise to him too that it when the news hit that it had happened Monday or Tuesday. Things are moving that fast.
     
  2. Nyvin
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    Nyvin Gold Member

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    56 Senate seats would be 11 pickups...that's more pickups then in 1994, 2006, 2008, or 2010. The GOP would have to beat around 6 incumbents and lose zero races for this to happen. The last time something this massive happened was 1958, which was the largest Senate change in US history.

    There is nothing on the US landscape that suggests a change this massive, unemployment is mediocre, president's approval is somewhat low but not horrid. I think your aiming a bit high.
     
  3. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    Could be. But the flow of jobs away from China and back to North America in general and the US in particular, began to start trickling in in Jan of this year instead of early in 2015 as McKinsey predicted in their report. ($0.99 as an ebook if memory serves.) Intel has announced the smallest chip in the world today (On Matthew's computer thread technically yesterday my time.)

    So, automation is moving much faster than expected and in the retraining time that means fewer jobs.
     
  4. Uncensored2008
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    Uncensored2008 Libertarian Radical Supporting Member

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    Barack Obama and Eric Holder are guilty of violations of 18 U.S. Code § 875; specifically;

    {Whoever, with intent to extort from any person, firm, association, or corporation, any money or other thing of value, transmits in interstate or foreign commerce any communication containing any threat to injure the property or reputation of the addressee or of another or the reputation of a deceased person or any threat to accuse the addressee or any other person of a crime, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both. }

    The extortion racket known as "Operation Choke Point" is an open violation of the law, extorting banks and financial institutions who deal with the POLITICAL enemies of the administration, absent any violation of law by either party.

    It is irrefutable fact that Obama is a crook - a criminal.

    SO here is a "what if." With a Republican House and Senate, they impeach Obama for this specific crime - given the iron clad proof of criminal acts by Obama and his shock collar, Holder, but with the GOP majority, they remove Obama from office. Do you see the democrats with an advantage in 2016?

    I realize that the Republicans have no balls, we have a corrupt press, and an entertainment industry that would run demagoguery even beyond what they did to Bush - but IF they were to hold Obama for this blatant, irrefutable criminal act, what do you think that would do to 2016.

    EMILY MILLER: DOJ accused of targeting gun industry with 'Choke Point' program | Fox News
     
  5. mamooth
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    mamooth Gold Member Supporting Member

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    A fine day for Democrats, as the Tea Party continues to work diligently to elect Democratic senators.

    In the Democratic-leaning but still competitive state of Iowa, the Republican primary choice is Joni Erst, a woman much like Sarah Palin, except further to the right. Hence, Iowa is now a Democratic lock.

    In Mississippi, the extremely conservative incumbent Republican Thad Cochran could have won the general election in a cakewalk. But apparently he wasn't conservative enough, and the Tea Party candidate Chris McDaniel beat him in the primary. However, he didn't get 50%, so there has to be a runoff, so the Republicans spend the next 3 weeks spending all their cash and knocking each other down. And the Tea Party candidate probably wins. After that, it's a competitive race for the Democrats, who are running a conservadem candidate.
     
  6. HenryBHough
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    HenryBHough Gold Member Supporting Member

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    The closest creature in nature to a "conservadem candidate" is the Hoop Snake which is visible only for very short periods.
     
  7. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    Politically this is dumber than dogsquat.

    A) It makes martyrs for the opposition.

    B) Obama makes the Ds look even less competent than they really are so impeaching him is a very bad idea.

    C) Taking the blame for a Biden presidency is an additional huge cost.
     
  8. Uncensored2008
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    Uncensored2008 Libertarian Radical Supporting Member

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    Only if they fail to make their case.

    For 6 years, I've been in complete agreement, but I see Operation Choke Point as crossing a line that cannot be ignored.

    This is what Impeachment was meant to address.

    I don't agree. Obama is a cult of personality, that the democrats rally around. Criticism of Obama results in charges of racism, which are used to protect not just Obama, but ancillary characters such as Biden.

    Valid point, but if we are a nation of laws, then there are some acts that cannot be ignored. If we are a nation where democrats are above the law, then by all means carry on.
     
  9. peach174
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    peach174 Gold Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Of those 21 seats, 17 of those seats is where the Republican chances of winning are quite good. If the Republicans win those 17, then they need four more.
     
  10. Nyvin
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    Nyvin Gold Member

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    Not to mention Impeachment is an extremely difficult process and requires 2/3s majority support in both chambers of congress. You'd have to have a very good case to be successful with impeachment of a president.
     

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