2014 US Senate predictions

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by Hoosier4Liberty, Feb 14, 2014.

  1. Nyvin
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    Nyvin Gold Member

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    In 2010 the GOP only won 6 seats, and that was considered a "blowout". Six seats is the bare minimum to take the majority in 2014. They still didn't take the majority in 2010.

    In 2010 the GOP beat three incumbent democrats (the other three pickups were open seats). That was in a blowout year mind you, in 2014 you're expecting to beat three just to take the majority with 51 seats (not including John Walsh in this)...to go further then that you have to win in harder states that Obama won in 2012.

    In 2014 there is nowhere near as much momentum behind them and the polling shows close races for all the incumbents in competitive seats. Also this time there is the chance of pickups in Kentucky and Georgia.

    A blowout year "bigger" than 2010 (which is what's needed) is borderline impossible.
     
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    Last edited: Jun 3, 2014
  2. WelfareQueen
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    WelfareQueen Platinum Member

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    Keep repeating it like a mantra. Whatever helps.....:lol:
     
  3. Uncensored2008
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    Uncensored2008 Libertarian Radical Supporting Member

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    Put down the crack pipe, comrade....
     
  4. WelfareQueen
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    WelfareQueen Platinum Member

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    No offense, but only idiots would vote for the party of the bumbling clusterfuck that is Obama and his Administration. Even his defenders can't defend this level of stupidity and incompetence.

    Other than morons who always vote Democrat, even as their cities and ghettos crumble...this election cycle will go strongly to the Republicans. How could it not?
     
  5. Hoosier4Liberty
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    Hoosier4Liberty Libertarian Republican

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    You're failing to take account the difference in Senate classes.

    In 2010 the Senators who got elected in 2004 were put up for reelection. 2004 was a fairly Republican year, so there weren't that many pickup opportunities available.

    In 2014, the Senators who got elected in 2008 will be put up for reelection. 2008 was a Democratic landslide year. Therefore, it will be easier for the GOP to gain seats in 2014 than 2010. Therefore, a blowout need not be "bigger" than 2010; a smaller "blowout" would be sufficient to get 6 seats.

    Bottom-line is that Georgia will almost certainly go GOP due to:
    1) the fact that both GOP candidates are quite electable(Kingston/Perdue)
    2) Nunn has not yet been attacked(explaining her high poll numbers)
    3) the run-off (so Nunn must go over 50%)

    Kentucky will go GOP due to the immense partisan lean of the state. More importantly, the Democrats have never won KY without a strong coal country backing, and Alison Grimes' quote saying "I do support the national Democratic agenda" is going to kill her in those areas on the KY-WV border that Dems need to win. McConnell also now leads in the HuffPollster average.

    I think we both agree that MT/WV/SD are easy GOP pickups, more or less.

    That gets us to GOP + 3.

    Next up:
    Louisiana- While I used to think Landrieu was quite formidable and thought she would win, she's slipped a lot in polling and even NYTimes Upshot(which is bearish on GOP Senate chances) has Landrieu as a clear underdog.
    Arkansas-Pryor appeared to be rebounding, but a Crossroads poll has Cotton + 3 and Rasmussen has Cotton +4. While both of these polling firms lean GOP(though Rasmussen is suspect, which I'll explain later), Arkansas undecideds are overwhelmingly anti-Obama and anti-Obamacare. I'd like to see another PPP poll(which previously had Pryor +1 or Pryor + 2, I believe) or Quinnipiac/SUSA one to get a better feel on the race. But I think the momentum is back in Cotton's direction and he should pull it off.
    North Carolina-Hagan's been trailing recently. She was down 5 in a Civitas poll and down 1 in Rasmussen (note that Rasmussen is no longer run by Scott Rasmussen, so while it's tilted R in the past, it might not be any longer. Rasmussen consistently gives Obama higher approvals than other polling firms, so it might not be a biased pollster anymore).
    Tillis is likely in the lead here.
    Alaska-Like in North Carolina, the Republican (Dan Sullivan) leads in Huffington Post Pollster average, though barely. Alaska is weird because polls there underestimate incumbent strength and overestimate Democratic strength. This one's hard to call.

    Bottom line is that in the 4 races above in red states, the GOP will almost certainly win at least 2 of them, quite likely 3, or possibly 4. The GOP leads in HuffPollster polling average in Louisiana, Alaska, and North Carolina, and barely trails in Arkansas(but Cotton looks like he's rebounding there).

    This gives the GOP a +5 to +7 seat gain.

    All they have to do to secure a Senate takeover is to win 1-3+ of the following seats, which even gives the GOP breathing room if they screw up elsewhere:
    Colorado-Mark Udall is only barely ahead, and Cory Gardner proved he could take out an incumbent Dem. Plus the new coal regulations could hurt Udall. I say Udall has slight edge but not much.
    New Hampshire-Scott Brown isn't looking great here due to the carpet-bagger/energy bill problem, but 2010 proved that when the GOP wins in NH, they win big(Ayotte won the Senate election w/ 60%). Even a somewhat-weakened candidate like Brown can win if the environment is good enough in NH.
    Iowa-Joni Ernst is a solid candidate against Bruce Braley. Probably the best GOP chance in this list.
    Michigan-Terry Land's slipped in polls to Gary Peters, but she still has an outside chance if the environment turns from a gale on the Democrats to a tsunami.
    Virginia/Oregon/Minnesota-Gillespie, Wehby, and McFadden are all decent candidates against solid incumbents in blue-ish states(except Gillespie, who is facing a very popular opponent in a true swing state). These are all serious long-shots, but expanding the map definitely hurts the Dems.

    My guess would be GOP + 6 or +7.
     
  6. Nyvin
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    Nyvin Gold Member

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    This is exactly what I've been saying...52 seats is probably the max, and that's a clean sweep of all (truly) competitive seats. People saying "blowout" as in getting 53-55+ seats really don't know what they're talking about.

    I would guess that the GOP will pickup somewhere between 3 and 6 seats. +7 would be the GOP winning LA, AK, NC, and AR, which is remotely possible, but certainly not likely.

    It's unlikely the GOP will only pickup 2 or less seats, since SD, MT, WV are all gimme's and it's not very like the Democrats will win GA "And" KY.
     
  7. Nyvin
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    Nyvin Gold Member

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    Of the four, the only one I'd say has any clear lead is Cassidy against Landrieu, it's not a crushing lead, but a lead. Pryor is also shown to have a small lead against Cotton, I think Cotton is a horrible candidate and he'll probably end up destroying himself, but just my opinion. The other two are clearly very competitive and it's next to impossible to say at this point who will win.
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2014
  8. Hoosier4Liberty
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    Hoosier4Liberty Libertarian Republican

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    The difference is that you're asserting that the GOP's max is 7, while I'm saying that the GOP's mean is 6 or 7. There's a difference here. I'm not inclined to necessarily say what the "maximum" is right now, as so much could change between now and November. A GOP max of 7 means that you're giving the GOP virtually no chance of winning any states that Obama carried (+7 = GOP carries all Romney states) despite several competitive races occurring there. If Senate Majority PAC is spending money in Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Michigan, I think they view those seats as being threatened and potential GOP pickups.

    I think a realistic GOP minimum is 4(maybe 3), where minimum means about 10th percentile(again, a 25% chance the political forces go moderately or fiercely in the D direction, and then all bets are off). The 90th percentile for the GOP is probably around 8-10 seats (All 7 Romney states + Iowa + /- Colorado; if the GOP is really lucky they could eke out at least 1 win in NH/MI/MN/VA/).
    You say that 6 is the realistic maximum. I disagree and think it's closer to the median.

    It appears that the following 3 races are points of contention:
    Georgia/Kentucky: I don't think the Dems have greater than a 25% chance in either of these races. I assume you think close polling makes these states tossup/Tilt R, but the partisan gravity and fundamentals of a state must be taken into account.

    I see a net gain of 0 for the Dems in these 2 races, while you think that it will most likely be a gain of 1(I think). Since you think the mean result is 4.5 (average of 3 and 6) and I think it's 6-7, this explains a good chunk of the gap.

    Arkansas: I think Arkansas is the other source of the gap, and I concede that my optimistic analysis depends on the last 2 polls showing Cotton momentum. A new poll or 2 will show us more where we're at with that race.

    Those 3 races explain our forecast differences.

    Sorry for my long block posts(they're my style), but I hope you get my perspective now. :)
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2014
  9. Nyvin
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    Nyvin Gold Member

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    Well, Iowa is an open seat, but it's a state that has a democratic lean and Obama's approval isn't as low there. Plus Bruce Baley is well liked in the state. Colorado would be a long shot with the incumbent, especially if the Republicans don't act on immigration reform with all the hispanics there.

    To take history into account...other then the 3 recent tidal wave elections of 1994, 2008, and 2010...neither party has had more then 5 pick ups, and most of the time at least half the pick ups are in open seats. That means in an average election you're only going to beat 2-3 incumbents.

    To win 6 seats the GOP needs to beat 3 incumbents (not including Walsh). To win anymore they'd either have to win in Michigan or Iowa, or beat even more incumbents. Unless the election suddenly has a large surge toward the GOP (which nothing is as of yet showing it will) then I really do stand by my words that 6 seats is the realistic max, with a possible, but unlikely 7.
     
  10. Nyvin
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    Nyvin Gold Member

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    To be honest I won't be surprised at all to see the Democrats lose the Senate. After all, no President has held a favorable Senate for 8 years since FDR, so it's not like it's out of the norm. Of course I'm sure that TONS of conservatives out there are going to label it as some confirmation of "Obama's failings" or some political rhetoric.

    I would be more surprised to see the GOP pick up enough seats to where it can reasonably hold the Majority after the 2016 election, where Democrats will be heavily favored to win for a variety of reasons.
     

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