2012 US Senate Election

[GHook93]

The House is a toss up every 2 years, but the Senate leans different ways each year. 2012 leans Republican. Right now the score card is 51 D, 47 R and 2 I. There are 33 sets up for grabs, 21 D, 2 I and only 10 R.

Republicans:
1. Kyl - AZ - Retiring: AZ is a conservative state and this is a safe bet to stay Rin a GOP year.
2. Lugar - TN - Safely GOP
3. Olympia Snowe- Maine - Her biggest challenge will be in the primaries. If she wins then the seat is safely GOP. If the GOP foolishly turns to an O'Donnell type, this could be a loser. I think Snowe is probably safe.
4. Brown - MA - I don't think Brown was a fluke and he is type of Republican that can win in a blue state. Probably wins.
5. Wicker - Mississippi - Will say red whether they votes toss out this Porker or not.
6. Heller - NV - Is a toss up state.
7. Cocker - TN - Safe GOP
8. Hutchinson - TX - retiring, but this is TX safe GOP
9. Hatch - UT - GOP safe ground
10. Barasso - WY - Safe GOP State

Foresure GOP: 7 Mostly Likely GOP: 2 Toss up: 1

Independents:
1. Sanders - VT - VT loves there communist. Safe bet
2. Lieberman - CT - Liebs was a liberal all this life. CT is a lib state you do the math.
Foresure Blue: 2

Democrats:
1. Feinstein - CA - CA votes blue
2. Carper - DL - These are the morons that voted in time after time Biden. They are hopeless Libs
3. Nelson - FL - This state is red.
4. Akaka - HI - retiring, but this is blue safe
5. Carbin - MY - Safe Blue
6. Stabenow - MI - Toss up state, typically blue, but they are a hurting and might go blue
7. Klobucher - MN - Toss up state, Bachmann could turn it.
8. McCaskill - MO - State turning red
9. Tester - MT - Red state will go back to GOP
10. Nelson - NB - Red state will go back to GOP
11. Menendez - NJ -Maybe Christie could get a senate seat red? Probably not
12. Bingman - NM - Toss up state, but Reid nearly lost
13. Gillbrand - NY - Safe Blue
14. Conrad - ND - retiring - GOP winner
15. Sherrod Brown - OH - Toss up swing state
16. Casey Jr. - PA - Blue win
17. Whitehouse - RI - Blue Win
18. Webb - VA - retiring, red state will go red
19. Cantewell - WA blue state.
20. Manchin - WV - Red state win
21. Kohl - WS - retiring, popular Bucks owner retiring in a swing state, leans Red

Summary: GOP winner - 6; More Likely GOP: 4; Toss up - 4; Safe Blue - 9

Grand Summary:
The GOP could probably lose one seat, since retaining them are is tough. Brown is the best one to flip. MA is a blue state. put them at 46 - 52 -2

No Independents will flip and CT will be blue: 46 - 53 - 1

Democrats will lose 6: 52 - 47 - 1
Democrats will lose 3 off the 4 leaning GOP seats: 55 - 44 -1
Democrats will lose 2 of the 4 toss up: 57 - 42 - 1
Democrats will keep all the safe ones: 57 - 42 - 1

Democrats will still have the filbuster. Let's see how many of them are against it when they are using it at every turn to defeat every Republican bill? The hypocrisy will come to the front page on both sides!

 

[Truthmatters]

You forget about how many tea party candidates will be on the tickets.

If the Rs dont pander to the tea party they will get challenged by them, if they do pander to them they will lose independent votes.

They have put themselves in a real pickle this time.

 

[Wiseacre]

I think the Repubs have a good shot at taking over the Senate and retaining control of the House, albeit without a filibuster proof Senate or possibly not quite as large a majority in the House. Big question as to whether Obama gets re-elected, right now I'd rate it as a tossup.

 

[GHook93]

You forget about how many tea party candidates will be on the tickets.

If the Rs dont pander to the tea party they will get challenged by them, if they do pander to them they will lose independent votes.

They have put themselves in a real pickle this time.

True, but the only current R's that are in trouble of an O'Donnell is Snowe and Brown. I don't see either getting upsetted in the primaries. I do think Brown is very vulnerable in the generals though.

On the stealing the Democrat vote. The six foresure GOP flips are in RED states. The four GOP leaners have a lot on their side.

 

[GHook93]

I think the Repubs have a good shot at taking over the Senate and retaining control of the House, albeit without a filibuster proof Senate or possibly not quite as large a majority in the House. Big question as to whether Obama gets re-elected, right now I'd rate it as a tossup.

The GOP getting 51 seats is guaranteed. The filibuster beating 60 is going to be very very tough.

The House is always a toss up, but it gas stays high (which I hope it doesn't), fake unemployment stays above 9% (which I hope it doesn't), if real unemployment stays above 20% (which I hope it doesn't), if we are still in Libya (which I hope we are not) and if the economy doesn't show great signs of recovery (which I hope it does), then the gains in the House will stick and the GOP might even pick up more ground.

 

[GHook93]

29 R - 20 D - 1 I (far left socially, but leans very right fiscally) - 34 is needed for a 2/3 majoirty.
11 seats up (and 2 US territory up also) - 4 GOP and 7 D
GOP: - All are very safe
IN - Daniels termed out, but this is a red state and Pence is a good candidate
ND - Dalrymle
UT - Herbert - Red
WV - No One (was Manchin who went to senate) - safe GOP

Dems:
Schweiter (MT) - termed out in a RED State, GOP win
Markell (DL) -Blue
Nixon (MO) - A state fast becoming red, lean GOP
Perdue (NC) - NC is now a toss up state
Lynch (NH) -Swing state, toss up
Shulmilm (VT) - Blue
Gregoire (WA) - Blue
2 turning Red, 1 leaning red, 2 toss up and 2 Blue

Summary: 2 foresure GOP = 31
1 Leaning red = 32
1 of 1 toss up goes red = 33 - 16 -1

Puerto Rico - Tulafono: Majority Red throughout their govenment. Red
American Samoa - Blue