1,204 U.S. sites Recorded their Coldest-Ever October Temperature

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Billy_Bob, Nov 6, 2019.

  1. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Platinum Member

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  2. C_Clayton_Jones
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    C_Clayton_Jones Diamond Member

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    It's that time of year again, when rightwing nitwits exhibit their ignorance and lack of understanding the difference between climate and weather.
     
  3. ReinyDays
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    ReinyDays Active Member

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    Dynamic models and climate models use different algorithms ... any similarities are strictly superficial ... I've been following NWS copy for over 25 years and these dynamic models are actually quite good and mostly accurate out three days ... and the forecasters in my area are usually quite candid about the results ... if the several all give the same solution, then that's the forecast and almost always spot-on ... if the several are everyplace, the forecasters will say that and admit to guessing tomorrow's weather ... every spring, the National Hurricane Center postmortems all their forecasts the previous hurricane season ... and a fairly exhaustive error analysis is posted every year ... dynamic models don't "fail" at 72 hours out very much ... past 72 hours you'll want your money on the pass line ... I believe the models NOAA developed are available for download, you can run them yourself and read through the code; unfortunately, the better dynamic models are proprietary and only the results can be made public, and the error analysis I mentioned above ...

    The problem is that forecasters only have six hours to run the several models, interpret the results and type out a dozen text documents ... then start over for the next forecast package ... and everything is changing all the time ... so in "static mode", nothing's changing which greatly improves accuracy ... and we can set a bigger, faster, better computer on the problem and let it run for a few weeks ... and most important, we use the exact same computer, the exact same code for the exact same time for each year ... so whatever errors there are will be reflected through the entire data set ...

    Climate models are a different kittle of fish ... punch in data from 100 years ago and run the fool thing ... then go look and see if the oceans are boiling off ... No? ... keep that in mind when we punch in today's data and run it ... the ocean might not be boiling off 100 years from now either ... if ($∆T > 1ºC) {echo "The oceans will boil off";} ... else {echo "The oceans will <i>still</i> boil off";} ... The National Enquirer pays good money for results like this ...

    I'm blathering again aren't I? ... go look at the 5 day forecast for Hurricane Sandy ... five days before she made landfall on the New Jersey coast ... now explain why you think that's a failure? ...
     
  4. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Platinum Member

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    Ignorance as defined by the anointed only though......

    The climate doesnt equal weather narrative is well known to the public for many, many years! But the public doesnt care so really, who are the real ignoramous's?

    Spiking the football based upon symbolic shit is ghey....embraced only by progressives who occupy the political fringe.:bye1:
     
  5. Billy_Bob
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    Billy_Bob Platinum Member

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    None of this matters... Your models can not model the system they were designed for.. They fail without exception. They are worthless... Public policy should never be set from these piles of crap.
     
  6. Billy_Bob
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    Billy_Bob Platinum Member

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    All Modeling fails inside 36 hours... (+2 STD).. and most fail inside 12 hours. I use 5 different models in my work and they can not predict anything accurately outside 12 hours.
     
  7. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Platinum Member

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    Philosophy is ghey.

    Theorizing on the climate and its relation to big storms is fun but only happens on community message boards that 99% of the population doesnt know or care about. If such banter is having no effect on the makers of public policy, it's no more important than a group navel contemplation session consisting of 13 members.

    The public doesnt care.

    How do we know this?

    Well we know this because nobody is calling Congress to concur with the sentiments of the climate hysterics.:coffee:
     
  8. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Platinum Member

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    Indeed Billy.....and its having zero impact on public policy. Renewable energy is still a joke and will be for decades to come.

    Costs dont matter to progressives.....but do for the rest of the public thank God!
     
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  9. ReinyDays
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    ReinyDays Active Member

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    There's folks who are offering a million dollar prize to anyone who can show a counter-example to NS ... if you can show these failures, then I'd go collect that money if I was you ... but yeah, in 2005 New Orleans' public policy didn't use "these piles of crap" and over two thousand people died ... again, why was the Sandy forecast a failure? ...
     
  10. ReinyDays
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    ReinyDays Active Member

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    Which models are you using and what computer are you running them on ... [giggle] ... a WinTel box ... or have you stacked a few hundred MiniMacs? ... what unit volume and iteration? ...
     

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