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It's that time of year again, when rightwing nitwits exhibit their ignorance and lack of understanding the difference between climate and weather.A staggering 1,204 U.S. sites Recorded their Coldest-Ever October Temperatures last month - Electroverse
According to official NOAA data, more than twelve-hundred monthly low temperature records fell ACROSS the U.S. in October 2019 — multiple Arctic air masses rode anomalously-far south on the back of a wavy jet stream flow, itself associated with historically low solar activity.
The sun is currently in its deepest solar minimum of the past 100+ years, and the jet stream has weakened as a result; its usual tight ‘zonal’ flow has more-often-than-not reverted to a loose ‘meridional’ one. This wavy flow has diverted brutal Arctic air into the lower-latitudes, and is responsible for the U.S. either busting or tying a staggering 1204 all-time MONTHLY low temperature records in October 2019 (double the number of new heat records).
Now this is why the cooling is important... night time temps are dropping globally.
Because ALL of your models FAIL, WITHOUT EXCEPTION. I dont use garbage to predict what is coming."... using dynamic models in static mode ..."
It's that time of year again, when rightwing nitwits exhibit their ignorance and lack of understanding the difference between climate and weather.A staggering 1,204 U.S. sites Recorded their Coldest-Ever October Temperatures last month - Electroverse
According to official NOAA data, more than twelve-hundred monthly low temperature records fell ACROSS the U.S. in October 2019 — multiple Arctic air masses rode anomalously-far south on the back of a wavy jet stream flow, itself associated with historically low solar activity.
The sun is currently in its deepest solar minimum of the past 100+ years, and the jet stream has weakened as a result; its usual tight ‘zonal’ flow has more-often-than-not reverted to a loose ‘meridional’ one. This wavy flow has diverted brutal Arctic air into the lower-latitudes, and is responsible for the U.S. either busting or tying a staggering 1204 all-time MONTHLY low temperature records in October 2019 (double the number of new heat records).
Now this is why the cooling is important... night time temps are dropping globally.
None of this matters... Your models can not model the system they were designed for.. They fail without exception. They are worthless... Public policy should never be set from these piles of crap.Because ALL of your models FAIL, WITHOUT EXCEPTION. I dont use garbage to predict what is coming."... using dynamic models in static mode ..."
Dynamic models and climate models use different algorithms ... any similarities are strictly superficial ... I've been following NWS copy for over 25 years and these dynamic models are actually quite good and mostly accurate out three days ... and the forecasters in my area are usually quite candid about the results ... if the several all give the same solution, then that's the forecast and almost always spot-on ... if the several are everyplace, the forecasters will say that and admit to guessing tomorrow's weather ... every spring, the National Hurricane Center postmortems all their forecasts the previous hurricane season ... and a fairly exhaustive error analysis is posted every year ... dynamic models don't "fail" at 72 hours out very much ... past 72 hours you'll want your money on the pass line ... I believe the models NOAA developed are available for download, you can run them yourself and read through the code; unfortunately, the better dynamic models are proprietary and only the results can be made public, and the error analysis I mentioned above ...
The problem is that forecasters only have six hours to run the several models, interpret the results and type out a dozen text documents ... then start over for the next forecast package ... and everything is changing all the time ... so in "static mode", nothing's changing which greatly improves accuracy ... and we can set a bigger, faster, better computer on the problem and let it run for a few weeks ... and most important, we use the exact same computer, the exact same code for the exact same time for each year ... so whatever errors there are will be reflected through the entire data set ...
Climate models are a different kittle of fish ... punch in data from 100 years ago and run the fool thing ... then go look and see if the oceans are boiling off ... No? ... keep that in mind when we punch in today's data and run it ... the ocean might not be boiling off 100 years from now either ... if ($∆T > 1ºC) {echo "The oceans will boil off";} ... else {echo "The oceans will <i>still</i> boil off";} ... The National Enquirer pays good money for results like this ...
I'm blathering again aren't I? ... go look at the 5 day forecast for Hurricane Sandy ... five days before she made landfall on the New Jersey coast ... now explain why you think that's a failure? ...
All Modeling fails inside 36 hours... (+2 STD).. and most fail inside 12 hours. I use 5 different models in my work and they can not predict anything accurately outside 12 hours.these dynamic models are actually quite good and mostly accurate out three days
Because ALL of your models FAIL, WITHOUT EXCEPTION. I dont use garbage to predict what is coming."... using dynamic models in static mode ..."
Dynamic models and climate models use different algorithms ... any similarities are strictly superficial ... I've been following NWS copy for over 25 years and these dynamic models are actually quite good and mostly accurate out three days ... and the forecasters in my area are usually quite candid about the results ... if the several all give the same solution, then that's the forecast and almost always spot-on ... if the several are everyplace, the forecasters will say that and admit to guessing tomorrow's weather ... every spring, the National Hurricane Center postmortems all their forecasts the previous hurricane season ... and a fairly exhaustive error analysis is posted every year ... dynamic models don't "fail" at 72 hours out very much ... past 72 hours you'll want your money on the pass line ... I believe the models NOAA developed are available for download, you can run them yourself and read through the code; unfortunately, the better dynamic models are proprietary and only the results can be made public, and the error analysis I mentioned above ...
The problem is that forecasters only have six hours to run the several models, interpret the results and type out a dozen text documents ... then start over for the next forecast package ... and everything is changing all the time ... so in "static mode", nothing's changing which greatly improves accuracy ... and we can set a bigger, faster, better computer on the problem and let it run for a few weeks ... and most important, we use the exact same computer, the exact same code for the exact same time for each year ... so whatever errors there are will be reflected through the entire data set ...
Climate models are a different kittle of fish ... punch in data from 100 years ago and run the fool thing ... then go look and see if the oceans are boiling off ... No? ... keep that in mind when we punch in today's data and run it ... the ocean might not be boiling off 100 years from now either ... if ($∆T > 1ºC) {echo "The oceans will boil off";} ... else {echo "The oceans will <i>still</i> boil off";} ... The National Enquirer pays good money for results like this ...
I'm blathering again aren't I? ... go look at the 5 day forecast for Hurricane Sandy ... five days before she made landfall on the New Jersey coast ... now explain why you think that's a failure? ...
None of this matters... Your models can not model the system they were designed for.. They fail without exception. They are worthless... Public policy should never be set from these piles of crap.Because ALL of your models FAIL, WITHOUT EXCEPTION. I dont use garbage to predict what is coming."... using dynamic models in static mode ..."
Dynamic models and climate models use different algorithms ... any similarities are strictly superficial ... I've been following NWS copy for over 25 years and these dynamic models are actually quite good and mostly accurate out three days ... and the forecasters in my area are usually quite candid about the results ... if the several all give the same solution, then that's the forecast and almost always spot-on ... if the several are everyplace, the forecasters will say that and admit to guessing tomorrow's weather ... every spring, the National Hurricane Center postmortems all their forecasts the previous hurricane season ... and a fairly exhaustive error analysis is posted every year ... dynamic models don't "fail" at 72 hours out very much ... past 72 hours you'll want your money on the pass line ... I believe the models NOAA developed are available for download, you can run them yourself and read through the code; unfortunately, the better dynamic models are proprietary and only the results can be made public, and the error analysis I mentioned above ...
The problem is that forecasters only have six hours to run the several models, interpret the results and type out a dozen text documents ... then start over for the next forecast package ... and everything is changing all the time ... so in "static mode", nothing's changing which greatly improves accuracy ... and we can set a bigger, faster, better computer on the problem and let it run for a few weeks ... and most important, we use the exact same computer, the exact same code for the exact same time for each year ... so whatever errors there are will be reflected through the entire data set ...
Climate models are a different kittle of fish ... punch in data from 100 years ago and run the fool thing ... then go look and see if the oceans are boiling off ... No? ... keep that in mind when we punch in today's data and run it ... the ocean might not be boiling off 100 years from now either ... if ($∆T > 1ºC) {echo "The oceans will boil off";} ... else {echo "The oceans will <i>still</i> boil off";} ... The National Enquirer pays good money for results like this ...
I'm blathering again aren't I? ... go look at the 5 day forecast for Hurricane Sandy ... five days before she made landfall on the New Jersey coast ... now explain why you think that's a failure? ...
None of this matters... Your models can not model the system they were designed for.. They fail without exception. They are worthless... Public policy should never be set from these piles of crap.
All Modeling fails inside 36 hours... (+2 STD).. and most fail inside 12 hours. I use 5 different models in my work and they can not predict anything accurately outside 12 hours.
the ironyIt's that time of year again, when rightwing nitwits exhibit their ignorance and lack of understanding the difference between climate and weather.A staggering 1,204 U.S. sites Recorded their Coldest-Ever October Temperatures last month - Electroverse
According to official NOAA data, more than twelve-hundred monthly low temperature records fell ACROSS the U.S. in October 2019 — multiple Arctic air masses rode anomalously-far south on the back of a wavy jet stream flow, itself associated with historically low solar activity.
The sun is currently in its deepest solar minimum of the past 100+ years, and the jet stream has weakened as a result; its usual tight ‘zonal’ flow has more-often-than-not reverted to a loose ‘meridional’ one. This wavy flow has diverted brutal Arctic air into the lower-latitudes, and is responsible for the U.S. either busting or tying a staggering 1204 all-time MONTHLY low temperature records in October 2019 (double the number of new heat records).
Now this is why the cooling is important... night time temps are dropping globally.
January temps the second week of NovemberSo I'm laughing.....top story over on DRUDGE right now!!
Weather forecast: Arctic blast next week to hit Midwest, East, South
Only the AGW k00ks think the public wont notice and be more concerned with 0.2 degrees the scientists are talking about!
January temps the second week of November
Chicago is Siberia, not sure you can beat that.January temps the second week of November
Lucky you ... we've been seeing temps at ten year lows for any time of year ... I'd be happy to have January temps right now ... yeesh ...
Chicago is Siberia, not sure you can beat that.
I can't disagree. living in sub zero weather for more than one month a year isn't ideal. It is where I live. I adjust. I continuously laugh my nuts off when people say climate changed. Well, I've lived in Chicago for 40+ years and here we are in November and it's cold like it has been cold in the previous 40 years. Not every year, but many years and now again in 2019, and snow in October. come and talk to me when I don't have to winterize my cottage in November, then maybe I'll believe in a climate change.Chicago is Siberia, not sure you can beat that.
One winter in Iowa ... never again, never again ... we go years between freezing temperatures here in Jefferson ... just insanity to live where temps fall into the teens, just insane ...
and yet again, no evidence qualifies....
imagine that!
~S~
It's that time of year again, when rightwing nitwits exhibit their ignorance and lack of understanding the difference between climate and weather.A staggering 1,204 U.S. sites Recorded their Coldest-Ever October Temperatures last month - Electroverse
According to official NOAA data, more than twelve-hundred monthly low temperature records fell ACROSS the U.S. in October 2019 — multiple Arctic air masses rode anomalously-far south on the back of a wavy jet stream flow, itself associated with historically low solar activity.
The sun is currently in its deepest solar minimum of the past 100+ years, and the jet stream has weakened as a result; its usual tight ‘zonal’ flow has more-often-than-not reverted to a loose ‘meridional’ one. This wavy flow has diverted brutal Arctic air into the lower-latitudes, and is responsible for the U.S. either busting or tying a staggering 1204 all-time MONTHLY low temperature records in October 2019 (double the number of new heat records).
Now this is why the cooling is important... night time temps are dropping globally.
Too Funny; Keep giggling moron...All Modeling fails inside 36 hours... (+2 STD).. and most fail inside 12 hours. I use 5 different models in my work and they can not predict anything accurately outside 12 hours.
Which models are you using and what computer are you running them on ... [giggle] ... a WinTel box ... or have you stacked a few hundred MiniMacs? ... what unit volume and iteration? ...
