There's Actually A Pretty Solid Way To Reasonably Predict What Happens Next

[mudwhistle]

Can you explain how the GOP gained seats in 2020 and took the house in 2022 if the democrats were cheating?

No?

Don’t feel worse than you usually do...nobody else can explain it either.

Because the NeverTrumpers would only help them take the WH and take the Senate.
They weren't going to let them have the House too.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

So everyone, across the entire political spectrum, can generally concur upon one simple fact:

The polls are often wrong.

Where they frequently lose the plot (and by "they" I mean Leftists and Doomers) is that this does not mean we can't paint a pretty lucid picture of where things are headed.

And this is due to the plain truth that, despite an abundance of irregularities, there are also reliable trendlines that have been quite consistent ever since 2016 - as least as far as The Don's specific performance is concerned.

And that is polls perpetually underrate him.

CNN's Harry Enten knows it, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver recognizes it, and of course the Right leaning media sphere acknowledges it.

Trump always under polls.

So, how could we utilize this basic metric, to assist us in predicting a potential 2024 outcome?

Well, we could take the underestimations of 2020, and apply them to what they mean in terms of the '24 contest.

For example, let's take my Blue State of Rhode Island.

They originally estimated a Biden victory of 30 points.

His actual win?

17 points.

Hardly a tight race, but a significant deficit from how he was expected to perform.

Now, interestingly, Rhode Island hasn't been polled since October - but that poll showed Biden with an 18 point advantage.

But if one "course corrects" based on 2020 polling errors?

His lead is whittled down to a shockingly minimalist 5 points.

And this dynamic exists in virtually every single state.

In other words - across the board, even in states he won, Biden vastly underperformed his polling in 2020.

Of course, Leftists will scoff at this and dismiss it because they have to in order to get through their ennui-infested existences.

But this post is for the Doomers.

To impress upon you that this will be too big to rig - IF YOU VOTE.

If you don't?

You will have ushered in another four years of bumbling Biden and his communist clown show.

Act accordingly.

If you are so very sure of Trump's victory, then I can assume you are up for a wager?

 

[CarlinAnnArbor]

So everyone, across the entire political spectrum, can generally concur upon one simple fact:

The polls are often wrong.

Where they frequently lose the plot (and by "they" I mean Leftists and Doomers) is that this does not mean we can't paint a pretty lucid picture of where things are headed.

And this is due to the plain truth that, despite an abundance of irregularities, there are also reliable trendlines that have been quite consistent ever since 2016 - as least as far as The Don's specific performance is concerned.

And that is polls perpetually underrate him.

CNN's Harry Enten knows it, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver recognizes it, and of course the Right leaning media sphere acknowledges it.

Trump always under polls.

So, how could we utilize this basic metric, to assist us in predicting a potential 2024 outcome?

Well, we could take the underestimations of 2020, and apply them to what they mean in terms of the '24 contest.

For example, let's take my Blue State of Rhode Island.

They originally estimated a Biden victory of 30 points.

His actual win?

17 points.

Hardly a tight race, but a significant deficit from how he was expected to perform.

Now, interestingly, Rhode Island hasn't been polled since October - but that poll showed Biden with an 18 point advantage.

But if one "course corrects" based on 2020 polling errors?

His lead is whittled down to a shockingly minimalist 5 points.

And this dynamic exists in virtually every single state.

In other words - across the board, even in states he won, Biden vastly underperformed his polling in 2020.

Of course, Leftists will scoff at this and dismiss it because they have to in order to get through their ennui-infested existences.

But this post is for the Doomers.

To impress upon you that this will be too big to rig - IF YOU VOTE.

If you don't?

You will have ushered in another four years of bumbling Biden and his communist clown show.

Act accordingly.

I refuse to vote for the lesser of two evils. I'm voting for Mickey Mouse

 

[Frankenstein]

So the Dems cheated so well they lost the House?

They would have lost more seats without cheating!

 

[Frankenstein]

Sigh. The sign of a coward and a loser is one who cant lose gracefully. People lose. It happens. That doesnt make you a stained loser. Only small insignificant cowards cannot lose gracefully. It is the sign of a leader and a mature human being able to accept a loss and learn. Trump and his followers are all insignificant cowards. OP included. This is why they are constantly looking for validation that their terrible ideas are popular when they are not. They know they are the losers, cowards, ignorant, and despicable humans that dont garner respect. I mean. Imagine looking at Donald Trump and cheering for him like a rock star? Losers.

Wow you sure are awful pious, I will vote for the person who is not a Democrat, now is that tribalism as some will say, not at all the Democrat platform is one of covetousness, and quite frankly pure evil. Donald Trump isn't my hero Jesus is. Donald trump is flawed like any human, but you hate him because he exposes who you and the others are truthfully, whether Republican or Democrat. He is a far sight better Than Biden, or any other race baiting wokeness embracing evil democrat. Now that's the fact Jack.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

If you are so very sure of Trump's victory, then I can assume you are up for a wager?

Dude, I have been trying to wager people on here for months and have had zero takers.

So you're down?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Dude, I have been trying to wager people on here for months and have had zero takers.

So you're down?

you know it

 

[leftwinger]

Takes over 100 million legit votes to beat 30 million Illegals names on voter rolls + the 38% actual communist and Deep State employees + 4-10 Criminal Chocolate Deep State cities doing anything they want at count time because now they know, any sort of cheating will not even be looked into 3.5 yrs after AND will be fully censored by the MSM.

Voting officially ended in 2020. They sewed up PHX & ATL & VA & COL. All gone full on Deep state with PA, MI, WI, MINN already lost forever. Forget the ten hard-core states.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

you know it

What's your poison?

Venmo?

Or are we opting for another currency - such as the Loser never comes back here?

I'm down either way.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

What's your poison?

Venmo?

Or are we opting for another currency - such as the Loser never comes back here?

I'm down either way.

I like the 2nd one.

Though I think I made the same bet with a Bideneista so hell I might finally find a way to break this addiction

 

[RhodyPatriot]

I like the 2nd one.

Though I think I made the same bet with a Bideneista so hell I might finally find a way to break this addiction

Well that's intellectually dishonest.

You also bet Trump would win in a separate face-off?

You're so hellbent on proving how "moderate" you are you can't even make a bet properly lol.

Which only proves my point: Ain't nothing in the middle of the road but roadkill.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Well that's intellectually dishonest.

You also bet Trump would win in a separate face-off?

You're so hellbent on proving how "moderate" you are you can't even make a bet properly lol.

Which only proves my point: Ain't nothing in the middle of the road but roadkill.

It is too close to call, too much can happen between now and Nov.

I figure this way I have to leave, which is good for me, and I make someone else leave as well if they have any integrity.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

It is too close to call, too much can happen between now and Nov.

I figure this way I have to leave, which is good for me, and I make someone else leave as well if they have any integrity.

What a joke dude.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

What a joke dude.

This whole election is a joke, we have two fucking demented old white dudes and some how that is the very best our country can come up with to run for president.

We should all be embarrassed as fuck that we have Trump vs Biden II, but instead most of you idiots are happy about it.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

This whole election is a joke, we have two fucking demented old white dudes

Blah blah blah.

I can't believe I almost made a bet with a whining grandmother.

NEEEEXT.

 

[leftwinger]

This whole election is a joke, we have two fucking demented old white dudes and some how that is the very best our country can come up with to run for president.

We should all be embarrassed as fuck that we have Trump vs Biden II, but instead most of you idiots are happy about it.

You and your crew own it all mush-mouth. Decade after decade you slyly supporting the commee forkwads as you enable the destruction of candidates using the commee filthy dirty MSM to trash anyon marginally decent who is willing to run your DEM Uniparty MSM Conga line.

Now up to full blown Police State banana republic right up your phony Panamanian Black-tailed rear end you POS.

 

[Grumpyolman]

Reality?
Ribeye steak is $25 a pound. Gas prices and other energy prices are going higher and higher. Rents are ridiculously higher. No one can afford a starter home. People have already maxed out credit card debt.
Forget political dogma crap.

Biden is done. History. Gone.

 

[citygator]

Wow you sure are awful pious, I will vote for the person who is not a Democrat, now is that tribalism as some will say, not at all the Democrat platform is one of covetousness, and quite frankly pure evil. Donald Trump isn't my hero Jesus is. Donald trump is flawed like any human, but you hate him because he exposes who you and the others are truthfully, whether Republican or Democrat. He is a far sight better Than Biden, or any other race baiting wokeness embracing evil democrat. Now that's the fact Jack.

What is the GOP platform you support? My guess is you’ll post some culture war bullshit.

 

[Tumblin Tumbleweed]

So everyone, across the entire political spectrum, can generally concur upon one simple fact:

The polls are often wrong.

Where they frequently lose the plot (and by "they" I mean Leftists and Doomers) is that this does not mean we can't paint a pretty lucid picture of where things are headed.

And this is due to the plain truth that, despite an abundance of irregularities, there are also reliable trendlines that have been quite consistent ever since 2016 - as least as far as The Don's specific performance is concerned.

And that is polls perpetually underrate him.

CNN's Harry Enten knows it, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver recognizes it, and of course the Right leaning media sphere acknowledges it.

Trump always under polls.

So, how could we utilize this basic metric, to assist us in predicting a potential 2024 outcome?

Well, we could take the underestimations of 2020, and apply them to what they mean in terms of the '24 contest.

For example, let's take my Blue State of Rhode Island.

They originally estimated a Biden victory of 30 points.

His actual win?

17 points.

Hardly a tight race, but a significant deficit from how he was expected to perform.

Now, interestingly, Rhode Island hasn't been polled since October - but that poll showed Biden with an 18 point advantage.

But if one "course corrects" based on 2020 polling errors?

His lead is whittled down to a shockingly minimalist 5 points.

And this dynamic exists in virtually every single state.

In other words - across the board, even in states he won, Biden vastly underperformed his polling in 2020.

Of course, Leftists will scoff at this and dismiss it because they have to in order to get through their ennui-infested existences.

But this post is for the Doomers.

To impress upon you that this will be too big to rig - IF YOU VOTE.

If you don't?

You will have ushered in another four years of bumbling Biden and his communist clown show.

Act accordingly.

Polls are meaningless to me. If you want to analyze every one you see like some weird political cheerleader, you do you. Currently, both candidates suck out loud.

 

[Tumblin Tumbleweed]

View attachment 946150

I learned how to debate long before your stank ass arrived at USMB.

You don't know how to debate.