Why Romney Will Win

[toomuchtime_]

Now that both conventions are over, the dimensions of the likely Romney triumph are becoming clear. Both through an analysis of the polling and an examination of the rhetoric, the parameters of the victory are emerging.

Start with the polling. It appears that the bulk of the Obama post-convention bounce has been in blue states where his left-oriented convention stirred up the enthusiasm of an already committed group of voters. Among likely voters identified in The Washington Post poll -- taken after the conventions -- Obama holds a slim one-point edge. And an analysis of Rasmussen's state-by-state likely voter data indicates a tie in the the battleground states.

But it's not really a tie at all. All pollsters are using 2008 models of voter turnout. Some are combining '04 and '08 but skewing their samples to '08 numbers. African Americans cast 11 percent of the national vote in '04, but their participation swelled to 13 percent in '08. These 2 million new black voters backed Obama overwhelmingly. Will they come out in such numbers again? Will college and under 30 voters do so as well? Will Latino turnout be at historic highs? All these questions have to be answered "yes" for the polling samples so widely published to be accurate.

For example, when a poll shows an Obama lead among likely voters of, say 47-45, it is based on an assumption that blacks will cast 13 percent of the vote. But the lack of enthusiasm among Obama's base for his candidacy and their doubts about the economy make an 11 percent black turnout more likely. In this event, Romney would actually win in this sample by 46-45.

And then there is the enthusiasm gap. All recent polling suggests that Republican- and GOP-leaning Independents are 13 points more enthusiastic and following the race more closely than their Democratic counterparts. If the grassroots do their job, this will yield a stronger Romney vote.

Why Romney Will Win | RealClearPolitics

 

[JoeB131]

Dick Morris?

Has Dick Morris ever made a correct prediction?

 

[Political Junky]

When pigs fly.

 

[Truthmatters]

Morris would say anything and sell his mother too

 

[SniperFire]

It is amazing that Owebambi will still be receiving about 46% of the vote in November.


Simply amazing.

 

[Lakhota]

Holy shit, more insanity from ole Dick "Toe Sucker" Morris.

 

[Black_Label]

Dick Morris?

Has Dick Morris ever made a correct prediction?

Hell no

 

[Lakhota]

Is Toe-Sucking Fox Newser Dick Morris In D.C. Madam’s Phone List?

 

[Salt Jones]

Now that both conventions are over, the dimensions of the likely Romney triumph are becoming clear. Both through an analysis of the polling and an examination of the rhetoric, the parameters of the victory are emerging.

Start with the polling. It appears that the bulk of the Obama post-convention bounce has been in blue states where his left-oriented convention stirred up the enthusiasm of an already committed group of voters. Among likely voters identified in The Washington Post poll -- taken after the conventions -- Obama holds a slim one-point edge. And an analysis of Rasmussen's state-by-state likely voter data indicates a tie in the the battleground states.

But it's not really a tie at all. All pollsters are using 2008 models of voter turnout. Some are combining '04 and '08 but skewing their samples to '08 numbers. African Americans cast 11 percent of the national vote in '04, but their participation swelled to 13 percent in '08. These 2 million new black voters backed Obama overwhelmingly. Will they come out in such numbers again? Will college and under 30 voters do so as well? Will Latino turnout be at historic highs? All these questions have to be answered "yes" for the polling samples so widely published to be accurate.

For example, when a poll shows an Obama lead among likely voters of, say 47-45, it is based on an assumption that blacks will cast 13 percent of the vote. But the lack of enthusiasm among Obama's base for his candidacy and their doubts about the economy make an 11 percent black turnout more likely. In this event, Romney would actually win in this sample by 46-45.

And then there is the enthusiasm gap. All recent polling suggests that Republican- and GOP-leaning Independents are 13 points more enthusiastic and following the race more closely than their Democratic counterparts. If the grassroots do their job, this will yield a stronger Romney vote.

Why Romney Will Win | RealClearPolitics

Here's what Dick Morris said would happen after the Republican convention.

"Convention Will Give Romney Big Bounce of 5-6 Points! That he will not lose. The Democrats will not get a bounce from their convention."

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06CV24m_Cf0&feature=player_detailpage]Convention Will Give Romney Big Bounce!* Dick Morris TV: Lunch ALERT! - YouTube[/ame]

 

[Lakhota]

 

[Lakhota]

 

[toomuchtime_]

Dick Morris?

Has Dick Morris ever made a correct prediction?

He's the guy Clinton trusted to get him a second term.

 

[CrazedScotsman]

Why will Romney win?

Because President Obama is a jackass. He is the symbol of the Democrat party and only fools, idiots and freeloaders will vote for him this time around. It really is amazing how one man suckered in the people of the United States and then single handedly destroyed the Democrat party along with the American dream. What's really hard to understand is that people are still fighting for this guy.

 

[copsnrobbers]

Holy shit, more insanity from ole Dick "Toe Sucker" Morris.

What will you do when Romney stops sending you other peoples money?

 

[Truthmatters]

robmoney hasnt got a chance in the debates

 

[Salt Jones]

Holy shit, more insanity from ole Dick "Toe Sucker" Morris.

What will you do when Romney stops sending you other peoples money?

Go ask those whites who make up the majority of welfare users.

 

[copsnrobbers]

Why will Romney win?

Because President Obama is a jackass. He is the symbol of the Democrat party and only fools, idiots and freeloaders will vote for him this time around. It really is amazing how one man suckered in the people of the United States and then single handedly destroyed the Democrat party along with the American dream. What's really hard to understand is that people are still fighting for this guy.

Its easy to see who he getting support from. Look at who gets fee shit and you have your answer. A developed society of lazy ass takers. in the end useful idiots or soar losers but always losers anyway.

 

[dread]

Why will Romney win?

Because President Obama is a jackass. He is the symbol of the Democrat party and only fools, idiots and freeloaders will vote for him this time around. It really is amazing how one man suckered in the people of the United States and then single handedly destroyed the Democrat party along with the American dream. What's really hard to understand is that people are still fighting for this guy.

People still fight for Obama because they too want everyone to be controlled. They are scared of your right to freedom of speech and can't wait for Obama to take it away. They are afraid of your right to bear arms and can't wait to have Obama take it away. They are so fearful of you in fact that they cant wait to put you in concentration camps so that they might brainwash you into their way of thinking. Because they are right and they will dominate you.


Basically people who like Obama are like rapists. It isnt anything to do with sex it is all about power and control.

 

[Old Rocks]

President Obama 237 Governor Romney 191

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Florida President Obama 1.3

Ohio President Obama 4.2

Virginia President Obama 0.3

 

[Avorysuds]

If most people had to bet everything they own on who would win, most people, like 80%+ would bet on Obama to win. However... again if most people had to bet everything on "will things get worse under Obama's second term?" again we would see a 70-80% of people betting things will get worse.

We are a very weak nation at this point. People don't even vote for who they feel best represents them anymore, they talked themselves out of even that basic and simple freedom. Now we have people like Bush, Obama, McCain and Mitt... We ain't goin anywhere but down for quite a while. The only good news is both parties are eroding and losing huge amounts of their base.