When I was finishing my Bachelor's degree in criminology at the University of Pittsburgh in the '70's, I did a term paper that tried to calculate the likelihood that a one-time felon would ever be incarcerated. In general terms, here is what I found.
- Most crimes go un-reported. Murders are reported and auto thefts are reported, and most true robberies (most people don't know the definition of "robbery") are reported, but aggravated assault, burglary, embezzlement, petty theft, rape, vandalism, domestic violence, and the other more common crimes are either not reported, or reported but not recorded by police.
- Most reported crimes are ultimately un-solved. These numbers are inflated by police departments through the plea bargaining process. Once they get a bad guy, the DA bargains with him to cop a plea in exchange for a lighter sentence, but they have him plead guilty to many, many more crimes than he actually committed, in order for the police to claim that this larger number of crimes were "cleared by arrest/conviction."
- Most guilty defendants don't go to prison (Note the distinction between JAIL and PRISON; two different things). The prisons are crowded and judges only send criminals whose crimes are frequent, notorious, or outrageous to prison. Most people, when they are incarcerated, have been convicted multiple times before they ever go to prison. (It is claimed that Blacks go to prison with fewer actual crimes on their record than "white" people, but that is unsupported by the statistics).
The bottom line is that if you were to commit one crime - say burglarize a sporting goods store - the likelihood that you will end up in prison for that crime is lower than the likelihood that you will hit the lottery.
And the correlating fact is as follows:
The chances that a factually-innocent person will be IMPRISONED are extremely low. Ninety-nine percent of prisoners claim to be factually innocent (or legally innocent, which is not the same thing), and there are many notorious cases of innocent people being imprisoned, but on a percentage basis, you are talking less than one percent. Claims of large numbers of Black men in prison for crimes they didn't commit are simply not supported by any rational analysis or data.
As stated above, Black males commit violent crimes in percentages that are dramatically out of proportion to their portion of the general population (about 6%). Blacks don't commit "most" crimes, and fortunately most of their victims are also Black, but there is no doubt that "we" have a problem and honest sociologists and psychologists know what it is, but aren't encouraged to disclose it: bastardy. When 70% of a population is raised without a father in the home...