CDZ What's Your Brexit Hedge?

[william the wie]

Nobody knows what the outcome will be or for that matter what the knock on effects of even having a vote on the subject of EU membership except that a precedent will be set for other countries to have referendums on the same subject or about staying in the Euro Zone. That last part could happen as soon as later this summer. Italy, Spain and Greece are taxiing down that runway on their own. So, massive uncertainty in probably ahead.

Do you need a hedge or do you already have one?

 

[320 Years of History]

I got a letter a little over a month ago from my advisor about this. He described the situation and presented some ideas he had for gaining on "stay" or "leave" outcomes of the referendum and an assortment of hedging strategies.

In response, I did what I normally do, which is try to get the gist of what he's talking about at a high level -- for me, that means, take a big risk, take some risk or eschew risk as much as is reasonably possible, and that's about as far as I care to care -- and responded. Thus, my reply, in substance, was, "Put $100K into making money on a 'stay' decision and protect the rest of my money from all but the most extreme consequences of a vote either way. I don't things will go to 'hell in a handbasket' regardless of the outcome of the referendum, but I'm attracted to the prospect of making a nice chunk of change with a bit of 'disposable' money, so let's try and take small advantage of an opportunity that doesn't come round often."

We'll see how it turns out, but I don't expect to become broke or remotely near it either way.

 

[Picaro]

Nobody knows what the outcome will be or for that matter what the knock on effects of even having a vote on the subject of EU membership except that a precedent will be set for other countries to have referendums on the same subject or about staying in the Euro Zone. That last part could happen as soon as later this summer. Italy, Spain and Greece are taxiing down that runway on their own. So, massive uncertainty in probably ahead.

Do you need a hedge or do you already have one?

A recent article in The Economist points out that Britain has shown a steady increase in per capita GDP since WW II, with most of the intervening years' slumps having little effect on it; the article predicts that as far as Britain goes whether they stay in the EU of opt out will make little difference to its economic health or ill health either way. As for hedging currencies, which I assume you're talking about, I would short Spain's, don't see much movement in the Pound or Italian lire, and Greece's is probably already bottomed out , might fall a little lower but no big moves either way. The big boys are already way ahead of the curve on this stuff, so not much spread there for the little guy either way. Small players should probably spend some time on China's, and Japan's possibilities. With the decline in trade world wide, mostly it's shorts that will make the best returns at the moment. Or just hedge the with gold; if you have the means, there are negative interest rates out there to be had, in the Netherlands and Germany, for instance. they're big time savers, and their banks have few places to put all that cash.

All these big banks have been quietly buying gold and are already hedging their national currencies, and have been for a while now.

 

[NLT]

fuckem...they created the mess....they can clean it up ...the EU is kaput !

 

[skye]

With all respect....bless the UK and bless Brexit....GET OUT UK !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! get out!!!

may the globalist agenda ....and their World Government be damned

 

[skye]

OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION UK ................ GET OUT NOW!

 

[Picaro]

Is the entire UK going or staying based on this upcoming vote?

 

[william the wie]

That's the plan.

 

[Fishlore]

The folks who really need a hedge are Bibi Netanyahu and his Likudnik pals. Britain is the strongest supporter of Israel in the EU and the principle conduit for US insistence on unqualified backing for the Jewish state despite its violations of law and human rights,

Brexit by itself won't tip the canoe but everything from support for BDS to outright anti-Semitism will get a boost if Britain pulls out and a real jump start if the Union breaks up,

 

[saveliberty]

Going to work Thursday and Friday.

Sent some money to the broker, in case something interesting develops.

 

[william the wie]

The folks who really need a hedge are Bibi Netanyahu and his Likudnik pals. Britain is the strongest supporter of Israel in the EU and the principle conduit for US insistence on unqualified backing for the Jewish state despite its violations of law and human rights,

Brexit by itself won't tip the canoe but everything from support for BDS to outright anti-Semitism will get a boost if Britain pulls out and a real jump start if the Union breaks up,

Don't disagree om your read as much as I think it is too limited. Muslims and not necessarily Syrian Muslims being shipped off to Syria to act as Assad's penal battlions seems likely too.

 

[Picaro]

. Britain is the strongest supporter of Israel in the EU and the principle conduit for US insistence on unqualified backing for the Jewish state despite its violations of law and human rights,

What laws and human rights are they violating, and why no ICJ court cases against them? They're the most watched, reported, and observed country in the region, so there should be thousands of cases brought to the ICJ. Why aren't there?

Brexit by itself won't tip the canoe but everything from support for BDS to outright anti-Semitism will get a boost if Britain pulls out and a real jump start if the Union breaks up,

The British press is the most anti-semitic press in Europe, so this is doubtful.

 

[Tommy Tainant]

. Britain is the strongest supporter of Israel in the EU and the principle conduit for US insistence on unqualified backing for the Jewish state despite its violations of law and human rights,

What laws and human rights are they violating, and why no ICJ court cases against them? They're the most watched, reported, and observed country in the region, so there should be thousands of cases brought to the ICJ. Why aren't there?

Brexit by itself won't tip the canoe but everything from support for BDS to outright anti-Semitism will get a boost if Britain pulls out and a real jump start if the Union breaks up,

The British press is the most anti-semitic press in Europe, so this is doubtful.

Perhaps you could give some examples of this ?

 

[Picaro]

. Britain is the strongest supporter of Israel in the EU and the principle conduit for US insistence on unqualified backing for the Jewish state despite its violations of law and human rights,

What laws and human rights are they violating, and why no ICJ court cases against them? They're the most watched, reported, and observed country in the region, so there should be thousands of cases brought to the ICJ. Why aren't there?

Brexit by itself won't tip the canoe but everything from support for BDS to outright anti-Semitism will get a boost if Britain pulls out and a real jump start if the Union breaks up,

The British press is the most anti-semitic press in Europe, so this is doubtful.

Perhaps you could give some examples of this ?

Of course I could. Anybody could.

What's your Brexit Plan? Is it 'I be Snivelin' Bout Da Jooooos!' like some of the other posters?

 

[Fishlore]

. Britain is the strongest supporter of Israel in the EU and the principle conduit for US insistence on unqualified backing for the Jewish state despite its violations of law and human rights,

What laws and human rights are they violating, and why no ICJ court cases against them? They're the most watched, reported, and observed country in the region, so there should be thousands of cases brought to the ICJ. Why aren't there?

Brexit by itself won't tip the canoe but everything from support for BDS to outright anti-Semitism will get a boost if Britain pulls out and a real jump start if the Union breaks up,

The British press is the most anti-semitic press in Europe, so this is doubtful.

The hang-up is one of legal standing. Israel's alleged crimes are committed against Palestine and Palestine does not have the sovereign status as a UN member to bring a case against Israel before the World Court. This deficiency has been one of the drivers for granting full member status to Palestine and the reason for the frantic US and Israel efforts to prevent it. Step by step, full Palestinian statehood is drawing nearer and with it, the standing to bring suit. Most observers think that the investigations behind the numerous resolutions condemning Israel (resolutions killed by US veto) make the Palestinian suit open-and-shut if it ever gets to court.

The result of a conviction would be sanctions similar to those imposed on Iran or North Korea. This would create insupportable economic pressure on Israel to comply with UN 242. No wonder Likud and the Republican Party are crapping their pants at the very thought.

Your claim that "the British press is the most anti-semitic press in Europe" amazes me. Whatever are you thinking? Do you know anything about the press in Poland, Hungary etc.? Are you confusing anti-Semitism with opposition to Israel government policy? Very strange...

 

[Fishlore]

. Britain is the strongest supporter of Israel in the EU and the principle conduit for US insistence on unqualified backing for the Jewish state despite its violations of law and human rights,

What laws and human rights are they violating, and why no ICJ court cases against them? They're the most watched, reported, and observed country in the region, so there should be thousands of cases brought to the ICJ. Why aren't there?

Brexit by itself won't tip the canoe but everything from support for BDS to outright anti-Semitism will get a boost if Britain pulls out and a real jump start if the Union breaks up,

The British press is the most anti-semitic press in Europe, so this is doubtful.

Perhaps you could give some examples of this ?

LINK = List of the UN resolutions concerning Israel and Palestine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Picaro]

That's the plan.

Do you see any major problems with the effects it might have on Ireland's economy? They're now competing with the UK and the Commonwealth as a tax haven and banking shelter. I don't know where Ireland's politics stand on the EU or the UK's voting on the issue.

 

[HenryBHough]

About a week ago I took advantage of the polling and bought heavily into GBP. Up substantially already. I expect a change in a day or two but it won't make any further difference because I have already spent them at that rate on hotel bookings and railway tickets. Panic can be sooooo profitable!

Call that a "hedge"?

 

[Picaro]

. Britain is the strongest supporter of Israel in the EU and the principle conduit for US insistence on unqualified backing for the Jewish state despite its violations of law and human rights,

What laws and human rights are they violating, and why no ICJ court cases against them? They're the most watched, reported, and observed country in the region, so there should be thousands of cases brought to the ICJ. Why aren't there?

Brexit by itself won't tip the canoe but everything from support for BDS to outright anti-Semitism will get a boost if Britain pulls out and a real jump start if the Union breaks up,

The British press is the most anti-semitic press in Europe, so this is doubtful.

The hang-up is one of legal standing. Israel's alleged crimes are committed against Palestine and Palestine does not have the sovereign status as a UN member to bring a case against Israel before the World Court. This deficiency has been one of the drivers for granting full member status to Palestine and the reason for the frantic US and Israel efforts to prevent it. Step by step, full Palestinian statehood is drawing nearer and with it, the standing to bring suit. Most observers think that the investigations behind the numerous resolutions condemning Israel (resolutions killed by US veto) make the Palestinian suit open-and-shut if it ever gets to court.

The result of a conviction would be sanctions similar to those imposed on Iran or North Korea. This would create insupportable economic pressure on Israel to comply with UN 242. No wonder Likud and the Republican Party are crapping their pants at the very thought.

Your claim that "the British press is the most anti-semitic press in Europe" amazes me. Whatever are you thinking? Do you know anything about the press in Poland, Hungary etc.? Are you confusing anti-Semitism with opposition to Israel government policy? Very strange...

so they aren't violating any laws, it's all just propaganda and bias. I thought so.

As for the British press, it's easy to show; even the Guardian investigated itself once, and then announced there was some basis for the claim re themselves, they just wouldn't publish the results and admit openly they were indeed deliberately biased and promoting antisemitism, just made the usual dissembling hand waves and a 'pledge' to become more neutral, whatever that means to them. What's 'very strange' is the obviously dishonest assertions that many are 'just opposing Israeli policy'.

 

[william the wie]

That's the plan.

Do you see any major problems with the effects it might have on Ireland's economy? They're now competing with the UK and the Commonwealth as a tax haven and banking shelter. I don't know where Ireland's politics stand on the EU or the UK's voting on the issue.

Just because I can't see any doesn't mean anything in this context. Gadfly on Bloomberg reports the city is placing big bets to change bookmaking odds which helps move the market. There are also claims of polling numbers being gamed in order for small fry to try and shift the markets for their retirement accounts and give themselves a better chance to win at their bookie's. Ireland is probably also gaming the situation to maximize its own returns.