2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map
Partisan lock states are already filled in.
Regardless of either Clinton or Sanders being nominated...
A Kasich/Rubio ticket is guaranteed to carry the following states:
-Ohio
-Florida
-North Carolina
-Nevada
-Virginia
That alone secures a GOP victory.
In addition, Kasich/Rubio would likely lock in CO against HRC (though not guaranteed against Sanders) and likely secures Iowa against Sanders (though not guaranteed against Clinton). A Kasich/Rubio ticket has a maximum of 291 potential EC votes, which is more than any other GOP candidate's potential.
With PA and WI being virtually lock votes for the Democrats, they operate from a 247 base of essentially locked in votes. Whomever is the Democratic nominee, they can concentrate 100% of their efforts in FL and secure victory. In order for the GOP to win in November we have to:
- Revert, then secure, Florida: FL has been brought to the precipice of falling into blue statedom. It must be returned to it's previous status of being a red leaning swing state. A Rubio VP nod accomplishes that. But the work is not finished there. FL will still have to be
won. It will take a moderate and pragmatic POTUS candidate to ultimately win over FL. Most GOP candidates will easily scare FL into the blue column.
-Lock up Ohio: Anything short of locking up Ohio would be the GOP equivalent of telling the Democrats "Eh, maybe we want it, maybe we don't. We'll let you know in December." The Dems can afford to gamble that carrying OH in the previous two elections will carry adequate momentum to bring the state back to them if the GOP neglects the state. As a result, Democrats would be able to count OH as among several layers of contingency. A Kasich candidacy locks up Ohio and reduces the number of strategic plans the Democrats can hope to layer up.
The GOP needs to do those things just to get to a parity with the Democrats. That would only leave NH, VA, IA, CO, and NV as battlegrounds, with VA being the most important for the GOP.