Tracking the el nino

[Billy_Bob]

Oct 15th and the Cold Arctic circulations have now flipped ... Most of the US land temps are now way below normal..

This could make the pause continues without a pause...

 

[jc456]

Oct 15th and the Cold Arctic circulations have now flipped ... Most of the US land temps are now way below normal..

This could make the pause continues without a pause...

going down to daytime highs at around 50 degrees here in Chicago land. eleven degrees below normal. Dude, it's been this way all summer and now into the fall. El nino my butt.

 

[longknife]

NYTimes on “Strong el Niño”

And some much needed rain to southern California @ Strong El Niño to Bring Warm Winter to Much of U.S.

 

[Billy_Bob]

NYTimes on “Strong el Niño”

And some much needed rain to southern California @ Strong El Niño to Bring Warm Winter to Much of U.S.

LOL...

I know the lead forecaster... He is currently floored that the midwest has cooled this week well below norm which is 100% opposite his forecast.. Lets just say I wont be following his lead....

Love his gloom and doom predictions. Going to be great fodder when the temps are well below norm and snow levels well above. Good little alarmist propagandizing like he is told..

 

[Billy_Bob]

Region three is cooling... region Four is cooling rapidly... region 3-4 is flat and should also follow suit this week or next..

looks to me like the beloved El Nino is on its way out..

 

[Old Rocks]

Promises, promises, promises. That is all we ever get from you, silly Billy Bob. Of course, the El Nino will eventually end, the silly Billy will say " I told you so".

 

[Billy_Bob]

And as predicted.. FLAT but negative trend has begun...

Australia BOM is now predicting an across the board drop in ocean temps for the foreseeable future.. A rather pronounced one, dropping well below El Nino thresholds by mid December, which is at odds with NOAA's predictions that say it will go through mid spring..

Who to beleive?

 

[Billy_Bob]

I now know why they changed their predictions..

There has been a 0.6 deg C flip from negative (warm) to positive (cool) flow indicating cooling of the region is pronounced. And this has happened in the last two weeks..

The forecast discussions are interesting noting many of the problems I have seen for the last two months.. With Paris on the horizon NOAA wont change their predictions until well passed the conclave unless the cooling gets so pronounced they cant ignore it.

 

[Billy_Bob]

The Blob is cooling rapidly. Its lost another 0.97 deg C this week and is now three small areas which are cooling due to circulation changes. The flip is clear. No mistaking it now!

 

[Billy_Bob]

Even NOAA's graphing shows the rapid cool down...

The Blob has broken into three parts this week and dropped almost a full degree C.. Wow NOAA's graphs show the cooling very pronounced.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Promises, promises, promises. That is all we ever get from you, silly Billy Bob. Of course, the El Nino will eventually end, the silly Billy will say " I told you so".

It's been happening for weeks. There is no mistaking it now. Better late than never, admitting defeat there Old Crock..

 

[Billy_Bob]

Three month animation showing cooling..

 

[Crick]

Could that have anything to do with the northern hemisphere moving into winter?

Boy, that'll be a surprise for them folks at NOAA.

I gotta be honest here Billy. I don't see a lot of cooling in that graphic.

 

[Old Rocks]

Now silly Billy, do you want me to post your predictions from the beginning of this year? I would really be embarrassed to have been totally wrong that many times in a row.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Awwwwwweee Poor little old fraud cant explain why 1/2 of the country is 20 deg F below normal... And the west is now at normal despite the El nino... The pause will continue and cooling is all that is left...

 

[Old Rocks]

Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 October 2015

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 1.1ºC

Niño3.4 2.4ºC

Niño 3 2.6ºC

Niño 1+2 2.5ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Oh Billy........................ Still 2.4, that is a very strong El Nino.

 

[Old Rocks]

My word, but we are seeing a lot of coverage of this El Nino in the media now.

 

[Crick]

Billy, is the el Nino over yet?

 

[Old Rocks]

1. The South Will Be Cooler Than Average, The North Warmer

2. The South Will Be Wetter Than Average

Winter 2015-2016 outlook: 5 things to expect

Well, there are the expected effects of the El Nino.

 

[Crick]

Awwwwwweee Poor little old fraud cant explain why 1/2 of the country is 20 deg F below normal... And the west is now at normal despite the El nino... The pause will continue and cooling is all that is left...

Why do you think that's the case? Do you believe there is no el Nino? Do you believe it will end any minute now? Do you believe it's a small and weak el Nino? How many different ways can you differ from the actual experts and make yourself look more and more and more the fool Billy? Someone with even a basic intelligence usually knows when to quit.